re: The Official Thread: Russia invades Ukraine

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Reuters - Russia won't demand immediate switch to rouble gas payments, Kremlin says
LINK
March 30 (Reuters) - Russia will not immediately demand that buyers pay for its gas exports in roubles, the Kremlin said on Wednesday, promising a gradual shift and saying Russia should work on an idea to widen the list of its exports requiring rouble payment.

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So Europe doesn't "bend the knee" on March 31st. (Selling gas to Europe is 30%+ of Russian GDP)

I cannot believe how weak Russia's position is. Short of a massive lifeline from China - which would endanger Chinese access to China's beloved European markets - I can't see them having any path to prosperity.

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Yes. That’s exactly what Russia tried to do. Don’t forget, they thought the Ukrainians would drop their arms and greet them as liberators.

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And they had a build up of forces over a 10+ month period on the boarder and somehow didn’t think about making sure their supply line was logistical organized? They brought tanks and trucks by train thousands to the border, staged bases, Biden even said the week before the invasion they had brought in large quantities of blood, the amount you need on hand before conflict, but somehow they forgot that fuel and food needs to be supplied to a convoy of vehicles and personnel 40km long heading straight for Kyiv?

Just my opinion, when they came from Belarus they had wishful thinking they wouldn’t get resistance. They paused the convoy, saw the amount of anti tank and stinger missiles that were coming in and adjusted. Yes the Ukrainians put up a fight and hit supply lines. When the Russians got to the suburbs of Kyiv they paused again. Didn’t proceed now they are consolidating in the east.

They have 150,000 troops spread across 3 fronts. Significant percentage were draftees. They don’t have air dominance or don’t want to risk losing assets to obtain it due to the weapons and AA provided by US. Don’t want to lose assets on the ground due to the javelins so they hang back and indiscriminately blast population centers with artillery.

Put in perspective, initial phase of Iraqi Freedom was roughly 180,000 troops on two parallel fronts from the south to Baghdad. Shock and awe took out all of the air defenses. There were no anti air and anti tank shoulder fired missile systems as effective as the stinger and javelin to worry about. (Did lose assets from RPG but nowhere near the effectiveness.

Took us a month to take Baghdad and if you knew anyone that was in the second battle of Fallujah, the urban warfare was not pretty. And that’s a city of less than 400,000.

Only way they took Kyiv was if the population embraced them. Again I don’t condone or support anything that Russia is doing, but if they do succeed in the east and south specially Odessa. The geographical isolation of Kyiv would effectively leave Zelensky another mayor of Kyiv. In close proximity to a nation controlled by Putin.

TLDR

There is no good end to this or win for the Ukrainian people and that is the real tragedy.

Then what’s going on in eastern Ukraine which has been silent for a while? I’m sure if Russia lost a single soldier their the western media would happily report it?

You are spot on.

The biggest takeaway from all of this is how poorly Russia's military has performed at ALL levels.

From top to bottom the Russian Military has performed miserably. They have made gains through sheer numbers but at a horrific cost to themselves.

There are a lot of reasons:
1) Hubris
2) Poor operational level planning
3) Poor tactical execution (armor used without infantry support)
4) Poor communications
5) Poor training at the troop level
6) Poor logistics management
7) Poor situational awareness
8) Inability to obtain Air Superiority
9) Not enough troops (Typically you want at least a 3 to 1 superiority in numbers when attacking)
10) Poor intelligence

I can't think of a single facet of warfare where the Russian military has performed well. They only made significant gains in the opening days of the war, once Ukraine started mounting a defense, there hasn't been much forward progress in total. There have been some localized gains but even those have not been fast.

Can anyone point to anything the Russian Military has done well in this war?

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Can anyone point to anything the Russian Military has done well in this war?

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They've done a great job of resupplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with armored vehicles.

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We captured Baghdad a capital city thousands of miles from our border in three weeks. Allied forces were mobilized far from home; yet they delivered a decisive blow and devastated the enemy.

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The US dropped more ordinance on Iraq in 1 week than Russia has in 1 month.

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Contrast that with Russia who is attacking a neighboring country with positions on three sides. The fact that Russia hasn’t been able to dominate there smaller neighbor after months of planning is shocking really.

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That kool aid must be sweet

Ukrainians remember the 5 to 6 million of their grand fathers or great grand fathers generation who Moscow starved to death while Moscow was exporting grain for cash. They also remember the 5 to 6 million more who were "exiled" never to be seen again.

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Contrast that with Russia who is attacking a neighboring country with positions on three sides. The fact that Russia hasn’t been able to dominate there smaller neighbor after months of planning is shocking really.


That kool aid must be sweet

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Those are facts. I’m not saying Russia is losing, I’m just commenting about just how poorly the Russian military is performing.
There was a time in my lifetime that we feared the Russian Bear and their tanks sweeping west from behind the iron curtain and steamrolling NATO. That army is long gone.