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Posted on 11/2/24 at 10:55 pm to Bonkers119
quote:I don't usually copy and paste my own post, but can you explain why this one poll ranks the top issues completely different than the consensus of 100s of other polls for the last year?
really hard to believe that a state that went Blue in 2008 and 2012 is blue again? Trump sucks, Iowans have realized it.
quote:
So every other state says Economy/inflation and Immigration are there top 2 issues? All 49 others states. We're talking, 100s of polls that have all agreed on that for the last year.
But Iowa....IOWA says their top 2 issues are Democracy and Abortion
Posted on 11/2/24 at 11:03 pm to SportTiger1
Oh yah know...i'm 70, our retirement is shot, the farm is broke, we can barely afford groceries, but my biggest concerns are democracy and abortion. I'm going Kamala.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 11:09 pm to wareagle7298
Is that a coat hanger I see peaking out under that skirt?
Posted on 11/2/24 at 11:20 pm to OBReb6
This is huge! Let’s go!
Leftist Twitter is so pathetic and desperate. lol
Leftist Twitter is so pathetic and desperate. lol
Posted on 11/2/24 at 11:44 pm to jcaz
Posted on 11/2/24 at 11:46 pm to laxtonto
Posted on 11/2/24 at 11:53 pm to laxtonto
quote:
Read through the Selzer crosstabs and... it's just straight crazy. Here's Selzer/2020 Exits Overall: D+3/R+8
Senior Women: D+35/D+6
Senior Men: R+2/R+32
Indies: D+7/D+4
Women: D+20/D+3
Men: R+14/R+19
Rurals: R+20/R+28
Suburbs: D+23/R+3
No College: R+12/R+17
College: D+30/D+7
Jesus Christ...like their not even trying to hide it
Posted on 11/2/24 at 11:57 pm to Scruffy
Total 100% BS. As usual.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 11:58 pm to laxtonto
From the same poll....can we put this one to bed now?
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Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:04 am to Scruffy
quote:
Those of you who believe that that poll is legit, are you willing to stand by it?
Yeah. I doubt Harris wins Iowa but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if she gets close there.
quote:
If it is a real and accurate poll, the state that Trump won with a wider margin than TX and FL is now in Harris’ column.
The demographics are much different in Iowa than in those states. Iowa disproportionately white (swingy on abortion) and agricultural (hostile to tariffs).
Close Iowa does guarantee a Harris sweep in MI, WI, and PA, though. I think Trump will do well in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Florida with North Carolina and Georgia in the middle.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:11 am to SportTiger1
In a state that went Trump by 8+ points in 2020 (for 53% of the vote), this pollster got a sample where 81% of those polled said they’ve never supported Trump.
That doesn’t even make sense. In fact, if that’s true, Kamala should be much further ahead than 3 points.
That doesn’t even make sense. In fact, if that’s true, Kamala should be much further ahead than 3 points.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:11 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
Yeah. I doubt Harris wins Iowa but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if she gets close there.
She won't. Emerson has it Trump +10.5. That lines up with the Early Vote data plus gain in registrations
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:12 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
swingy on abortion
How does swingy on abortion hurt Trump?
Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:15 am to John Barron
quote:
She won't. Emerson has it Trump +10.5. That lines up with the Early Vote data plus gain in registrations
Maybe that’s closer to reality but if you look at Seltzer’s track record, she’s literally never missed. This would be the first time.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:18 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
but if you look at Seltzer’s track record, she’s literally never missed.
She missed the Iowa Governors race.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:19 am to inelishaitrust
Wrong. She missed Kim Reynolds race. I don't care about track record anyway. Her credibility was gone in August when she did not release a poll because her bosses told her she couldn't. She admitted that on Halperins podcast
Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:48 am to the808bass
quote:
How does swingy on abortion hurt Trump?
Trump appointed the court that eviscerated Roe. We’ve already had an election on this and Dems overperformed—especially with white women.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:51 am to John Barron
quote:
Wrong. She missed Kim Reynolds race.
She missed by 5 in that race. How far do you think she’s off here?
Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:02 am to inelishaitrust
Donald Trump will win Iowa by 8-12 points guaranteed. He won it in 2020 by 8 points when it was a D +2 electorate. Now in 2024 it is a R +8 electorate. Emerson a A+ rated pollster has it Trump +10.5, that lines up with the early data vote that shows a 12 point shift to Republicans from 2020
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