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re: Texas Early Voting Shattering Records; Dallas County Up 50%, Harris County Up 70%
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:23 am to texag7
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:23 am to texag7
quote:
Zero care if Talarico wins.
They're both terrible candidates. One more Democrat and a body of 100 with institutional controls on how that body can be effective means losing one seat is a nothing burger. I don't engage in the emotional reactions thinking that it's the end of the world because I'm a rational, intelligence person.
Its main function would be a huge embarrassment for MAGA.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:24 am to LuckyTiger
Republicans have been consistently underpolled from 2-6% for the last several election cycles. This isnt a right wing conspiracy theory as its even been discussed multiples times on CNN recently.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:25 am to DeBoar
quote:
You don’t even live there. Hush
He asked me a question. I answered
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:26 am to LuckyTiger
I already early voted in both
Feels good to be on the right side of history
Feels good to be on the right side of history
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:28 am to Tigersforthee
Correct, but what IS a conspiracy theory is just assume that’ll keep happening forever.
Pollsters are just data analysts. A big part of the job is to constantly adapt to new information and adjust accordingly. Generally speaking, that improves accuracy as well.
Pollsters are just data analysts. A big part of the job is to constantly adapt to new information and adjust accordingly. Generally speaking, that improves accuracy as well.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:29 am to Timeoday
Dallas and Harris county are heavy Dems. Have you been drinking? There probably ain't 100 Republicans in either county.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:32 am to Victor R Franko
Harris is so big it includes suburbs which are MAGA as well as the downtown areas which are solid democrats. Dallas is libs and blacks …
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:33 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
nothing burger
Talarico winning is not a nothing burger for Texans.
But I wouldn’t expect you to understand living in bumfrick Lake Charles
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:35 am to Cornpoptiger
quote:
How do you know its conservatives voting.
No one knows shite. Every single post like this is a wishcast.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:37 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I think that's already baked in. That's Paxton's base.
Will they turn out though? I think they will.
quote:
urban Republicans (more moderate and likely to vote for Talafreako)
I could be wrong but I just can’t see city and suburban Republicans in Texas going for Talafreako over Paxton to a significant level.
quote:
urban Democrats (turnout)
I think they will turn out huge. Record.
quote:
South Texas Latinos (will they keep the 2024 trend, regress a little to the mean, or completely flip to blue?)
I think they will regress, maybe a little past the mean, but not completely flip blue.
So, assuming my thoughts are accurate, who do you think wins?
Separately, assuming your thoughts are accurate, who do you think wins?
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:37 am to texag7
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. now we know who the former speaker is voting for. not surprised. since he diid his paxton impeachment, he has lost his speakership and now he is not running for reelection. his political career as a republican is over.Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:37 am to Victor R Franko
If the numbers are up the GOP voter is why. In Dallas, none of Crockett's peeps will waste their energy on Talafreako.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:39 am to LuckyTiger
The key demographic the media refuses to discuss is will the Black community show up in big enough numbers for Talarico. The Jasmine Crockett Black power coalition HATES Talarico with a passion & she hasn’t endorsed him to date. I just don’t see straight Black(& Hispanic) showing up to support an effeminate, obviously closeted White Austin soy boy.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:39 am to idlewatcher
quote:
3M peeps.
That’s cute.
Houston might have the most under reported population in the USA.
The Houston greater area out to tomballish area has to have 6 plus million people now.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:40 am to texag7
quote:
Talarico winning is not a nothing burger for Texans.
It would be embarrassing for those who rabidly supported Paxton, I agree
Cornyn would wipe the floor with the shitty candidate Talafreako
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:40 am to texas tortilla
quote:
GOP Texas State Rep. Dade Phelan says he will not vote for fellow Republican Ken Paxton: “He does not align with my morals and integrity
The irony in his statement.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:41 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
So, assuming my thoughts are accurate, who do you think wins?
If all the stuff happens + polling is skewed, then Paxton by a decent bit, like 52-48
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:42 am to mwade91383
quote:
A big part of the job is to constantly adapt to new information and adjust accordingly. Generally speaking, that improves accuracy as well.
Depends on who accepts the polling call. Republicans are notorious for declining to answer poll calls. So that lends every poll to lean Dem.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:42 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I wonder how this offsets the under-polling of Republicans in terms of balancing predictions.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 8:43 am to Hetfield
quote:
The key demographic the media refuses to discuss is will the Black community show up in big enough numbers for Talarico. The Jasmine Crockett Black power coalition HATES Talarico with a passion & she hasn’t endorsed him to date. I just don’t see straight Black(& Hispanic) showing up to support an effeminate, obviously closeted White Austin soy boy.
The problem with this is ignoring that the senate race is not the only race on the ballot. Any turnout by black organizations will be votes for Democrats across the board. It's not like they're going to mobilize voters to vote Democrat on every other race and then have those people not vote or vote for Republican in the senate race
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