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Message
some more polling data
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:12 pm
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:12 pm
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That adds an important dimension to what we found in our broader Quantus Insights Apr 23, 2025 study. We documented a persistent post-2016 directional error, including roughly D+4.2 across presidential battlegrounds, with some of the largest misses among working-class, rural and non-college electorates.
Aside from this problem being directional there’s also a seasonal component too, particularly in midterms, when summer polling can substantially overstate Democratic strength. It’s not until days into October before the electorate comes into clearer focus.
8
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:15 pm to Jbird
These institutions project what they want to happen not what the people want. Polling doesn’t exist anymore.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:16 pm to Jbird
Will you put that in context in Texas for example? Is Paxton really that far behind Talarico?
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:18 pm to Jbird
Thanks for posting.
I can't think of a recent prominent poll that overestimated a Republican vs a Democrat.
I can't think of a recent prominent poll that overestimated a Republican vs a Democrat.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:18 pm to Jbird
Polling is no closer to “journalism” than reporting is. In fact, they are each used primarily to manipulate the public.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:24 pm to Jbird
Great, but it’ll still be a bloodbath during midterms. The hate for Donald Trump is legitimate. People are pissed.
And yes, it’s still better than Kamala. That is a **** low bar.
And yes, it’s still better than Kamala. That is a **** low bar.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:25 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
RCP has him 1.5 down.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:25 pm to Jbird
Isn't this already widely known?
Ds are more likely to respond to a poll and be truthful than a R and these polls almost always lean +5-10% D
Ds are more likely to respond to a poll and be truthful than a R and these polls almost always lean +5-10% D
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:29 pm to Big Gorilla
quote:
These institutions project what they want to happen not what the people want. Polling doesn’t exist anymore.
Exactly. They use false polling to lead the sheeple.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:33 pm to aubie101
quote:
Great, but it’ll still be a bloodbath during midterms. The hate for Donald Trump is legitimate. People are pissed.
And yes, it’s still better than Kamala. That is a **** low bar.
Well who is the high bar? Because it wasn't Obama or Biden.
Nor was it Jeb Bush or Nikki Haley.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:45 pm to dgnx6
The only way a sitting President’s party doesn’t lose in mid-terms is to accomplish what was promised during the campaign.
1. Stop illegal immigration ….. check.
2. Use tariffs to increase manufacturing at home ….. check but unreported so swing voters don’t know about it.
3. Pass the Save Act …. Fail, not Trumps fault but still fail.
4. Lower prices or at least curb inflation… fail.
5. Lower cost of housing …. Fail
6. Lower gas prices …. Fail due to actions taken by Trump in Iran.
I’m voting Republican, but it’s the swing voters who decide elections. The Dems will take the House and come close in the Senate. I hope we can hold the Senate.
1. Stop illegal immigration ….. check.
2. Use tariffs to increase manufacturing at home ….. check but unreported so swing voters don’t know about it.
3. Pass the Save Act …. Fail, not Trumps fault but still fail.
4. Lower prices or at least curb inflation… fail.
5. Lower cost of housing …. Fail
6. Lower gas prices …. Fail due to actions taken by Trump in Iran.
I’m voting Republican, but it’s the swing voters who decide elections. The Dems will take the House and come close in the Senate. I hope we can hold the Senate.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:46 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
Polling is no closer to “journalism” than reporting is. In fact, they are each used primarily to manipulate the public.
This post was edited on 8/19/26 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:51 pm to bird35
This is good analysis. I think if Trump left Iran and could stay on message with Communism and Islam it would help the GOP tremendously.
Instead, it seems he's caught feelings for Kim and the NYC mayor, and we get non stop reflecting pool and ballroom posts.
Instead, it seems he's caught feelings for Kim and the NYC mayor, and we get non stop reflecting pool and ballroom posts.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:53 pm to bird35
quote:
4. Lower prices or at least curb inflation… fail.
5. Lower cost of housing …. Fail
These two lay at the Democrats feet. You don't flood the country with millions of illegals intentionally and then pay people with government money to house them for free and give them free government benefits, and not expect economic fallout.
Remember when the Democrats strong armed banks with the threat of calling them racists if they didn't give everybody that wanted a house a home loan? Republicans remember. We also remember the collapse that ensued.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 1:02 pm to riccoar
quote:
lay at the democrats feet
This doesn't work when you campaign on "I alone can fix it". Then get elected and make it worse.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 1:06 pm to Jbird
These polling institutions need to hire that Ann Seltzer lady of the gold standard Iowa Selzer poll.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 1:16 pm to Jbird
Remember the "polling data" that showed Kamal in a run away ?
Posted on 8/19/26 at 1:24 pm to aubie101
quote:
Great, but it’ll still be a bloodbath during midterms. The hate for Donald Trump is legitimate. People are pissed.
And yes, it’s still better than Kamala. That is a **** low bar.
Show us your analysis. Your wishing hard does not count.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 1:38 pm to The Torch
Many of the "failures" have been self inflicted that Trump keeps reminding voters of repeatedly on truth social:
Reflecting pool
Ballroom
Save Act
Gas prices
Iran
Tariffs
Strained relations wirh allies
GOP really would have a better chance if they just took the phone away from Trump and Natalie.
Reflecting pool
Ballroom
Save Act
Gas prices
Iran
Tariffs
Strained relations wirh allies
GOP really would have a better chance if they just took the phone away from Trump and Natalie.
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