re: some more polling data

quote:

---

RCP has him 1.5 down.

---

It’s early, so we’ll see if that holds. RCP, from what I can tell, compiles an average based on polls that I suppose they deem trustworthy.

RPC Average for Cruz vs Beto was Cruz +6.8. Cruz ended up winning by 2.6. That was 2018.

2024 TX Senate race, RPC average was Cruz 4.7 vs Allred & Brown combined. Cruz won by 8.5 over Allred and by 6.1 over Allred and Brown combined.

2024 Presidential Election, RPC average had Harris +0.1. Result was Trump +1.5.

RPC did have Trump winning EC, but only 287 to 251. They had Harris +0.4 in Wisconsin and +0.5 in Michigan. Trump won those.

So right now, especially this early in the race, if they have Talarico up by 1.5, it’s probably more like Paxton is up by 1.5. Still too close for comfort.