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So, what states must Kamala win ?
Posted on 7/23/24 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 7/23/24 at 12:52 pm
Everything ive seen is the national head-to-head, but I've heard Trump was leading in key battleground states.
I haven't seen much on Kamala v Trump in those states so what is her path to victory if she were pull the upset?
What states must she win and what are her chances?
I haven't seen much on Kamala v Trump in those states so what is her path to victory if she were pull the upset?
What states must she win and what are her chances?
11
Posted on 7/23/24 at 12:52 pm to dallastiger55
Michigan and PA.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 12:52 pm to dallastiger55
Posted on 7/23/24 at 12:53 pm to dallastiger55
The states they always cheat in the most.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 12:53 pm to dallastiger55
Same as Biden.
The map has not changed since Kamala as assumed the Democrat nomination.
The map has not changed since Kamala as assumed the Democrat nomination.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 12:55 pm to dallastiger55
3 out of 5 wins the election for either side.
Georgia (Trump +7.5 over Harris)
Arizona
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania (Trump +4.0 over Harris)
Michigan
No decent polling in other states but Trump was up over Biden in all three.
Upset potential states:
Harris: North Carolina
Trump: Minnesota and Virginia
Winning any of these upset potential states would cause the other to have to go 4/5 in the true battlegrounds.
Georgia polling is approaching "in the bag" for Trump, which would cause AZ, MI, PA, WI to be 2 for Trump, 3 for Harris.
Georgia (Trump +7.5 over Harris)
Arizona
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania (Trump +4.0 over Harris)
Michigan
No decent polling in other states but Trump was up over Biden in all three.
Upset potential states:
Harris: North Carolina
Trump: Minnesota and Virginia
Winning any of these upset potential states would cause the other to have to go 4/5 in the true battlegrounds.
Georgia polling is approaching "in the bag" for Trump, which would cause AZ, MI, PA, WI to be 2 for Trump, 3 for Harris.
This post was edited on 7/23/24 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 7/23/24 at 12:56 pm to dallastiger55
Arizona, Penn, Michigan are musts
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:04 pm to anc
quote:
Harris: North Carolina
That aint happening
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:05 pm to anc
quote:
3 out of 5 wins the election for either side.
Georgia (Trump +7.5 over Harris)
Arizona
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania (Trump +4.0 over Harris)
Michigan
Assuming no upsets, Trump can win with just Georgia and Pennsylvania, I think. That would put him at 270 or 271 depending on the 2nd District in Maine (which favors Trump).
Pennsylvania is the KEY state. If Democrats don't win there, the path gets really hard.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:13 pm to anc
quote:
Georgia polling is approaching "in the bag" for Trump,
Ron Rick’s on suicide watch.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:30 pm to AubieinNC2009
quote:
Harris: North Carolina
That aint happening
Don't be so sure. I suspect that Roy Cooper gets the VP nod. Ther is no seat loss in senate or Gov. People in the south hate Kamala. She needs a southern accent on the ticket to stand a chance.
In addition Cooper has a very strong fundraising network here in the state. NC is in play if Cooper is on the ticket, which means GA is as well.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:35 pm to dallastiger55
quote:
So, what states must Kamala win ?
It would be wise for Kamala to focus on winning the state of consciousness, and then she could focus on the 56 others Obama told her about.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:37 pm to dallastiger55
It kinda sux because democrats can win fewer states and get elected.
Republicans have to win more states to get elected
Republicans have to win more states to get elected
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:38 pm to DellTronJon
Some new polling just released
Harris leads in PA with Shapiro as VP, still down in NC with Cooper and AZ with Kelly. When messaging is included, Harris loses support in all four of these swing states.
Harris leads in PA with Shapiro as VP, still down in NC with Cooper and AZ with Kelly. When messaging is included, Harris loses support in all four of these swing states.
This post was edited on 7/23/24 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:38 pm to Rebel
quote:
Michigan and PA.
Pretty much.
Those are worth about 40 EVs between them. The only path she has without that would mean flipping states that haven’t gone blue in the last few cycles, and losing those two means she probably loses the remainder of the Rust Belt outside of Illinois.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:40 pm to scottydoesntknow
quote:
Arizona, Penn, Michigan are musts
AZ isn't.
If she wins all the states a Democrat SHOULD win (NM, Minnesota, VA etc) and she sweeps WI, MI, PA, she wins.
If she loses any one of those states, she is in serious trouble. If she loses PA she loses, period.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:41 pm to AUFANATL
quote:
Pennsylvania is the KEY state. If Democrats don't win there, the path gets really hard.
Democrats have no viable path without PA.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:43 pm to anc
quote:
Harris leads in PA with Shapiro as VP, still down in NC with Cooper and AZ with Kelly. When messaging is included, Harris loses support in all four of these swing states.
With Shapiro, she might lose MI and MN though
Posted on 7/23/24 at 2:03 pm to dallastiger55
if you go by the 270-to-win Consensus Map:
270-to-Win
then trump has 251 EV to Dems 226 with the following states as battlegrounds:
NV - 6
PA - 19
AZ - 11
MI - 15
WI - 10
trump needs 19 or more to win, so if he takes PA and holds his red on map its over.
Dems will need 3 combos to win:
PA MI AZ - 271
PA MI WI - 270
PA AZ WI NV - 272
270-to-Win
then trump has 251 EV to Dems 226 with the following states as battlegrounds:
NV - 6
PA - 19
AZ - 11
MI - 15
WI - 10
trump needs 19 or more to win, so if he takes PA and holds his red on map its over.
Dems will need 3 combos to win:
PA MI AZ - 271
PA MI WI - 270
PA AZ WI NV - 272
Posted on 7/23/24 at 2:08 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
with the following states as battlegrounds:
NV - 6
PA - 19
AZ - 11
MI - 15
WI - 10
For those who think 2020 was stolen (as I do), do you see ANY changes in these five states that will prevent another steal?
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