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So what really is the inflation number?

Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:22 am
Posted by Deplorableinohio
Member since Dec 2018
5595 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:22 am
Having grown up and began working in the late 70s, inflation was double digit for years. Now reports of 6.8% inflation excluding food and energy, really? If we use the same criteria as we did 50 years ago, what is todays real inflation rate? I would think closer to double digit. Anyone on here have any data sources for comparison?
Posted by DirtMcGirt13
Hot Lanta by way of Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2009
832 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:23 am to
Tree fiddy
Posted by Eli Goldfinger
Member since Sep 2016
32785 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:24 am to
Probably 10% minimum.
Posted by keakar
Member since Jan 2017
30080 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:25 am to
well they removed everything used to gage it that goes up with inflation so you can be paying 100 times more for 90% of the shite you need to live while they still claim not 1 pennny more of inflation.

when they dont count the cost of food, gas, and utilities as inflationary, then nothing is
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
17921 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:26 am to
quote:

If we use the same criteria as we did 50 years ago, what is todays real inflation rate?

You’re catching on.

Ever wonder how many flu deaths we’d have had in the past if we used the same criteria we have for Covid? Think about that -
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
10448 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:26 am to
It depends on what is included in the formula.

I think it’s closer to 10%

The question is whether it’s transitory. The government is going to call it transitory until they change their mind.

I recall the 70’s and early 80’s and interest rates shot through the roof but eventually inflation got tamed. I expect something like that to happen again but maybe not as severe
Posted by Strannix
District 11
Member since Dec 2012
48961 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:27 am to
Probably around 13-17%
Posted by Ross
Member since Oct 2007
47824 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:32 am to
Posted by fjlee90
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2016
7840 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:32 am to
quote:

The question is whether it’s transitory. The government is going to call it transitory until they change their mind.


The fed has already given up on the “transitory” rhetoric. It’s here. It’s going nowhere. We are about to see a historically quick taper and rate increase.

Prepare thy anus.
Posted by TerryDawg03
The Deep South
Member since Dec 2012
15742 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:32 am to
I read Greenspan’s Bubbles a while back. In it, the author describes how the Fed can swap out goods and services from their basket in order to hit their inflation target. So their stats are almost always skewed.

Don’t think of inflation as an overall figure that applies to everything. Instead, look at the various sectors and see how much things are increasing. Housing, autos, food, energy, etc. are all increasing at different rates for different reasons, much of which ultimately goes back to government intervention.

The price of a meal at a restaurant is going to go up due to food and labor costs, while energy costs are going up due to restrictions affecting supply. Different reasons, different rates, most because the government has done something somewhere to affect them.
Posted by GhostOfFreedom
Member since Jan 2021
11780 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:49 am to
quote:

Probably 10% minimum.


And that demented old pants pooper and his communist controllers don't care.

Posted by UncleFestersLegs
Member since Nov 2010
10841 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 9:57 am to
quote:

I expect something like that to happen again but maybe not as severe
good luck paying $2T annual interest on the federal debt lol
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
10448 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 10:37 am to
quote:

The fed has already given up on the “transitory” rhetoric. It’s here. It’s going nowhere. We are about to see a historically quick taper and rate increase.


I hadn’t heard that. I would have thought that there would be a massive sell off in stocks if the fed chair admitted that the inflation was not transitory.
Posted by jawnybnsc
Greer, SC
Member since Dec 2016
4976 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 10:40 am to
Not with the Money Supply as juiced as it is. It's all grease no gas at this point. Unless we start producing something AND NOW, we're headed for an historic crash and devaluation. Buckle up.
Posted by SantaFe
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2019
6594 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 11:05 am to
18 - 20 % . The Big Hurt is Coming.
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112524 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 11:07 am to
quote:

Now reports of 6.8% inflation excluding food and energy, really?


The inflation rate is zero excluding everything that costs more.
Posted by ChEgrad
Member since Nov 2012
3268 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 11:09 am to
When inflation was last reported at 5-6% a month or so ago, I read that if calculated like it was during the 70s it would have been 14%. So, a bit higher than that. Probably 15%.
Posted by TDFreak
Dodge Charger Aficionado
Member since Dec 2009
7378 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 12:26 pm to
Yes. Shadowstats.com is reporting between 10% and 15% depending on which basis you use (1990 CPI or 1980 CPI).

Which could lead to that old trick they like to pull where they change how they measure the statistic. Then viola! Overnight unemployment and inflation look real good again!
Posted by APHA
Corpus Christi
Member since Mar 2013
331 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 1:11 pm to
35%
Posted by Figgy
CenCal
Member since May 2020
7221 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 1:54 pm to
I'd guess around 15% if they cared to include food and energy.
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