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Scott Adams on Pizzagate. IMO it's a fair assessment (at this point).
Posted on 12/5/16 at 8:27 am
Posted on 12/5/16 at 8:27 am
quote:
If you aren’t following the dark corners of social media you might not know of something called Pizzagate. Snopes.com calls it a “detailed conspiracy theory.”
The basic idea is that a pizza parlor in Washington DC is alleged to be the center of a major child sex ring that involves top Democrats close to Hillary Clinton. I have labelled this story “not credible,” and that opinion is confusing people because there is a mountain of evidence supporting the allegations.
So let me tell you what a mountain of evidence is worth.
Mountain of Evidence Value = zero.
In the normal two-dimensional world in which we imagine we live, a mountain of evidence usually means something is true. So why am I looking at the same mountain of evidence as the believers in pizzagate and coming to an opposite conclusion?
The difference is that I understand what confirmation bias is and how powerful it can be. If you don’t have the same level of appreciation for the power of confirmation bias, a mountain of evidence looks like proof.
Here’s what I know that most of you do not: Confirmation bias looks EXACTLY LIKE a mountain of real evidence. And let me be super-clear here. When I say it looks exactly the same, I am not exaggerating. I mean there is no way to tell the difference.
That sounds crazy, right?
Suppose dozens of children started coming forth and detailing sex crimes in this particular pizza parlor. Would that prove it happened, or would I call that more confirmation bias?
I would call that more confirmation bias. In fact, the situation would be identical to the famous McMartin Preschool case in the eighties in which lots of kids made similar and untrue claims of abuse. We don’t have to wonder if a “mountain of evidence” including dozens of first-hand accounts can be false because we know it already happened. Moreover, cognitive scientists can tell you that this sort of massive mistake is more normal than you can imagine.
I want to be totally clear here that I’m not saying Pizzagate is false. I see the mountain of evidence too. And collectively it feels totally persuasive to me. It might even be true. I’m not debating the underlying truth of it. That part I don’t know. My point is that what you see as a mountain of evidence that can’t be wrong, I see as something that is far more likely to be confirmation bias. If I had to put a number on it, I’d say perhaps a 20-1 odds the Pizzagate story is false.
Let me put this in a more familiar context. Most of the Pizzagate believers are also Trump supporters it seems. And Trump supporters have watched first-hand as half the residents of the United States concluded that Trump was the next Hitler. Why do tens-of-millions of people believe such a preposterous thing?
It’s because there is a mountain of evidence to support the allegation. Case in point, just yesterday Trump suggested that perhaps flag burners should be punished. That’s clearly dictator talk! (Except that Hillary Clinton proposed that actual law in 2005.)
The argument for Trump being the next Hitler is built on the same type of confirmation bias as Pizzagate. Both allegations are supported by a mountain of evidence. But if you look at each piece of evidence in isolation, none are individually persuasive.
Let me summarize my point by saying that if you were not aware of the McMartin Preschool case you were also not intellectually equipped to judge the credibility of either Pizzagate or the Trump-is-Hitler idea.
People have asked me whether or not an understanding of how persuasion works can protect against unwanted influence. The quick answer is no. Persuasion typically works just as well when you see it coming and you know how it works. But in some specific cases a superior knowledge of cognitive phenomenon can help. This is one of those cases. If you know about the McMartin Preschool case, and you understand the real power of confirmation bias, you might have the tools to avoid believing in either Pizzagate or the likelihood of Trump turning into the next Hitler.
And now you have those tools.
As I told you last year, when a Master Persuader becomes president it will change more than your view of politics. It will change how you view reality itself.
LINK
FWIW, I wouldn't dine at or take my family and friends to Comet Pizza not because of the internet allegations (okay maybe) but from the creepy Instagrham post by its owner and the tranny band that plays there. It's just a creepy place.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 8:33 am to GumboPot
I'm just curious as to whether or not this all sprang up because the owner is David Brock's ex boyfriend.
Perhaps someone decided to get even with Brock and CTR by going after Comet Ping Pong. As Adams would say, still doesn't make the allegations true (or false, for that matter), but might explain why it has come to a boil at this point in time.
Perhaps someone decided to get even with Brock and CTR by going after Comet Ping Pong. As Adams would say, still doesn't make the allegations true (or false, for that matter), but might explain why it has come to a boil at this point in time.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 8:38 am to GumboPot
The difference between there being a mountain of evidence that Trump is the next Hitler and Pizzagate being real is that the "mountain of evidence" about Trump has all been made up propaganda by the left. The mountain of evidence about Pizzagate has been deduced from factual materials.
This writer shouldn't comment that he knows confirmation bias when he sees it as he's obviously spouting leftist bias himself.
This writer shouldn't comment that he knows confirmation bias when he sees it as he's obviously spouting leftist bias himself.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 8:41 am to BeefDawg
quote:
The difference between there being a mountain of evidence that Trump is the next Hitler and Pizzagate being real is that the "mountain of evidence" about Trump has all been made up propaganda by the left. The mountain of evidence about Pizzagate has been deduced from factual materials.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 8:42 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
I'm just curious as to whether or not this all sprang up because the owner is David Brock's ex boyfriend.
That is definitely one strong connection. Also the way food names as code for pedo talk in the Podesta emails were quite suspicious.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:03 am to BeefDawg
quote:
he's obviously spouting leftist bias himself.
have you followed Scott Adams at all?
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:20 am to GumboPot
quote:
The basic idea is that a pizza parlor in Washington DC is alleged to be the center of a major child sex ring that involves top Democrats close to Hillary Clinton.
That's not it at all.
The "pizza" in Pizzagate had nothing to do with Comet. It was the words that Podesta and the gang were using in their wierdo crypto emails.
Comet Ping Pong is a side show here... if it's a front for a child ring, it's just one of many.
This post was edited on 12/5/16 at 9:21 am
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:22 am to BeefDawg
quote:
The difference between there being a mountain of evidence that Trump is the next Hitler and Pizzagate being real is that the "mountain of evidence" about Trump has all been made up propaganda by the left. The mountain of evidence about Pizzagate has been deduced from factual materials. This writer shouldn't comment that he knows confirmation bias when he sees it as he's obviously spouting leftist bias himself.
Very well stated BeefDawg.
With everything that is out there regarding Pizzagate in my opinion what we have is either one a bunch of weirdo leftists who like to dable in the occult and have some strange pedophile tendencies whether they have acted on them or not or two everything that we know up to now is very close to the truth and this thing runs deep within the powers of our country and could bring a lot of people down. For the sake of our nation and the safety of our children I hope that if this is going on these people are brought to justice.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:34 am to BeefDawg
quote:
This writer shouldn't comment that he knows confirmation bias when he sees it as he's obviously spouting leftist bias himself.
Except that the writer has been an outspoken supporter of Trump.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:37 am to GumboPot
This confirmation bias assumes that we expected the political elite to be pedophiles. My friend that is not the case, and so the whole article is built on a lie.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:46 am to GumboPot
quote:jesus. well, if pizzagate is true, than trump is hitler!! is trump hitler? didnt think so. so pizzagate is bullshite too.
The argument for Trump being the next Hitler is built on the same type of confirmation bias as Pizzagate. Both allegations are supported by a mountain of evidence. But if you look at each piece of evidence in isolation, none are individually persuasive.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:49 am to GumboPot
It's like on one hand, we look to things "adding up" as, at the very least, an indicator that something may be going on warranting further investigation. On the other, Adams is saying that because the things that purportedly add up aren't indicative of anything when viewed individually, they mean nothing.
His view seem contradictory to the most basic idea of investigating wrongdoing, i.e., no smoking gun, no reason to believe anything.
Also, ironically, his lengthy analysis of confirmation bias seems itself a result of that same bias.
His view seem contradictory to the most basic idea of investigating wrongdoing, i.e., no smoking gun, no reason to believe anything.
Also, ironically, his lengthy analysis of confirmation bias seems itself a result of that same bias.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:49 am to BeefDawg
quote:
The difference between there being a mountain of evidence that Trump is the next Hitler and Pizzagate being real is that the "mountain of evidence" about Trump has all been made up propaganda by the left. The mountain of evidence about Pizzagate has been deduced from factual materials.
This writer shouldn't comment that he knows confirmation bias when he sees it as he's obviously spouting leftist bias himself.
This article is about you.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:49 am to BuzzSaw 12
quote:you can delete this part. unfortunately, this is not a partisan issue
in my opinion what we have is either one a bunch of weirdo leftists who like to dable in the occult and have some strange pedophile tendencies
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:53 am to GumboPot
quote:
As I told you last year, when a Master Persuader becomes president it will change more than your view of politics. It will change how you view reality itself.
Mmm huh...the old "believe me or your lying eyes" play. Trump/Sessions will be challenged with this, but there are more important 'fish to fry'. The NYPD has a ton of stuff; if a serious investigation is opened, we'll know the truth. Likely to be THE most obstructed investigation in the Nation's history. We know why. The most evil and vile of Humanity seeks POWER; look to the metaphor of Lucifer, the "shining angel". Where power is, that is where the ugliest of our kind dwell. And always will.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:55 am to GumboPot
As someone who has to frequent Mordor often...the question I ask myself is...knowing what I know, would I go there for pizza?
The answer is F-no.
Is that confirmation bias? Is the FBI report that mirrors Podesta email lingo happenstance? No it isnt.
If I overhear a guy talking in Russian, I will make the assumption the guy "knows" Russian.
Replace the word "pedo" for the word Russian, does the statement hold true?
The answer is F-no.
Is that confirmation bias? Is the FBI report that mirrors Podesta email lingo happenstance? No it isnt.
If I overhear a guy talking in Russian, I will make the assumption the guy "knows" Russian.
Replace the word "pedo" for the word Russian, does the statement hold true?
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:55 am to GumboPot
quote:
the famous McMartin Preschool case
that's it. i referenced that in the other thread
Posted on 12/5/16 at 9:57 am to GumboPot
The hole in his story is that podesta is and has been for years known to be a pedophile.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 10:00 am to BeefDawg
quote:
he sees it as he's obviously spouting leftist bias himself.
Just more proof that if you criticize the crazies or make objective comments your liable to be called whatever the "other" is...in this case, and mostly on this board, you'll be called a "liberal".
Posted on 12/5/16 at 10:03 am to GumboPot
A guy that states this
Has no authority, IMO, to state this
This article was difficult to read. He couldn't really make a cogent argument. It read more like: "Don't believe what your eyes are telling you, because I said so."
quote:
In the normal two-dimensional world in which we imagine we live
Has no authority, IMO, to state this
quote:
if you were not aware of the McMartin Preschool case you were also not intellectually equipped to judge the credibility of either Pizzagate or the Trump-is-Hitler idea.
This article was difficult to read. He couldn't really make a cogent argument. It read more like: "Don't believe what your eyes are telling you, because I said so."
This post was edited on 12/5/16 at 10:04 am
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