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The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7912 posts

Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
First, this is a supply chain issue. Covid has raised demand with home improvements, low interest rates and bored Americans.

Second, supply isn’t the issue...America has always been rich in natural resources, especially lumber. In fact, the government snowballed our oversupply in the 80’s and 90’s by paying tree farmers to plant pine. Now the South is flush with pine. The reasoning behind this wasn’t to boost lumber business. It was to boost other commodities.

Third, when you pay people to sit at home on their asses, they don’t go work manual labor and transport. Raising the prices of lumber. This is Biden’s fault.

Fourth, the people getting screwed in this deal are
1. The consumer
2. The tree farmers (sawmills can pick and choose who is cheapest)

Who is benefitting?

Lowe’s, Home Depot, and every sawmill.

Steel is next, followed by every single metal.

- a tree farmer.


Rex Feral
Georgia Fan
Member since Jan 2014
5347 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Georgia Pacific raised their prices when interest rates when to crap. That's why. They aren't paying tree farmers any more than what they were paying before prices went up.


Diamondawg
Mississippi St. Fan
Mississippi
Member since Oct 2006
22419 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:


Second, supply isn’t the issue..
Are you talking timber or lumber? Yes, plenty of timber but you pay through the nose for lumber and that's if you can even find a 2x6. So lumber supply is definitely the issue for a myriad of reasons relating to Covid


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53
ksayetiger
Wisconsin Fan
Centenary Gents
Member since Jul 2007
59525 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
you are correct

a friend of mine sells pine on some land he has. he said he ain't making shite off these high prices


back9Tiger
LSU Fan
Mandeville, LA.
Member since Nov 2005
10227 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Steel is not next, it was before wood prices and still climbing. We've seen steel prices rise over 60% since last August. Word is it may flatten out over the summer.... we'll see.


back9Tiger
LSU Fan
Mandeville, LA.
Member since Nov 2005
10227 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
I've heard the same from someone that owns a lot of tree farm land in Mississippi.


The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7912 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
They were given an excuse to raise their prices, and they won’t lower them. They will keep going up, that’s the problem.

The market will correct itself when construction halts due to prices.

I’m not making excuses. Just explaining what is happening.



teke184
LSU Fan
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
59110 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
My understanding is that it is a lack of available sawmill capacity to handle all of this due to closures over the years.

Until demand drops or capacity increases, we’re fricked.


SlickRick55
St. Amant, LA
Member since May 2016
876 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
I got my chips on:
1. Trump
2. Systemic racism
3. Capitalism


back9Tiger
LSU Fan
Mandeville, LA.
Member since Nov 2005
10227 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
2 or 3 sawmills are under construction in LA and MS... guess we will see.


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50
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The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7912 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

I've heard the same from someone that owns a lot of tree farm land in Mississippi.


That’s a problem with the market. If lumber prices rise, you’d think the farmers would get more. But the supply is abundant so they won’t. I’m just explaining why.


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71
Nutriaitch
LSU Fan
Montegut
Member since Apr 2008
4158 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

Fourth, the people getting screwed in this deal are
1. The consumer


no shite.
i’m in process of building a wooden privacy fence.
gonna cost me about 5 times what it would have if i had built it a year ago.


Diamondawg
Mississippi St. Fan
Mississippi
Member since Oct 2006
22419 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

“The supply chain for residential construction is tight, particularly regarding the cost and availability of lumber, appliances, and other building materials,” NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke said in a statement.

At the onset of the health crisis, “the mills stopped producing,” said Dustin Jalbert, senior economist and lumber industry specialist at Fastmarkets in Burlington, Massachusetts. “As soon as they saw 20 million unemployed, they shut down production.”
Epoch Times


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CDawson
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2017
10315 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Lumber has not seen a price increase outside of fuel cost associated with its production. These companies are ramping up prices because they can.


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111
concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
1353 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
someone read the WSJ article


Captain Crown
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2011
32699 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

First, this is a supply chain issue


They never stopped at the OSB mills around here even with skeleton crews. Just stock piled and releasing as they want.


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00
FearlessFreep
Auburn Fan
Baja Alabama
Member since Nov 2009
11991 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Built a house with a friend 9 years ago. Going through some old papers yesterday and found my invoice for the lumber we bought from Lowes.

I purchased 119 4x8 sheets of 7/16” OSB for $810 after my 5% discount.

Today those same 119 sheets would run just shy of $5k.


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110
The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7912 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

someone read the WSJ article


I read everything I can on it. Any other articles you recommend?


Bulldogblitz
Mississippi St. Fan
In my house
Member since Dec 2018
17211 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Add in...probably pretty easy to work house construction on a cash basis, so sitting at home collecting UI and getting a cash paying side gig....


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20
concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
1353 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
We have seen an increase locally, but we have 2 new sawmills in operation, and our land is relatively easily accessible compared to some.

That being said.
1. oversupply due to planting in the 80s-90s encouraged by gubment. On our farm, we actually did take hundreds of acres of cropland out of circulation and planted in trees.
2. sawmill shutdowns put a dent in supply
3. actual demand skyrocketed due to people remodeling, building stupid dividers and such, etc
4. While demand at retail is high, the pinch is at the sawmill, not in the forest.


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