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Message
Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:25 am
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:25 am
First, this is a supply chain issue. Covid has raised demand with home improvements, low interest rates and bored Americans.
Second, supply isn’t the issue...America has always been rich in natural resources, especially lumber. In fact, the government snowballed our oversupply in the 80’s and 90’s by paying tree farmers to plant pine. Now the South is flush with pine. The reasoning behind this wasn’t to boost lumber business. It was to boost other commodities.
Third, when you pay people to sit at home on their asses, they don’t go work manual labor and transport. Raising the prices of lumber. This is Biden’s fault.
Fourth, the people getting screwed in this deal are
1. The consumer
2. The tree farmers (sawmills can pick and choose who is cheapest)
Who is benefitting?
Lowe’s, Home Depot, and every sawmill.
Steel is next, followed by every single metal.
- a tree farmer.
Second, supply isn’t the issue...America has always been rich in natural resources, especially lumber. In fact, the government snowballed our oversupply in the 80’s and 90’s by paying tree farmers to plant pine. Now the South is flush with pine. The reasoning behind this wasn’t to boost lumber business. It was to boost other commodities.
Third, when you pay people to sit at home on their asses, they don’t go work manual labor and transport. Raising the prices of lumber. This is Biden’s fault.
Fourth, the people getting screwed in this deal are
1. The consumer
2. The tree farmers (sawmills can pick and choose who is cheapest)
Who is benefitting?
Lowe’s, Home Depot, and every sawmill.
Steel is next, followed by every single metal.
- a tree farmer.
30
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:29 am to The Levee
Georgia Pacific raised their prices when interest rates when to crap. That's why. They aren't paying tree farmers any more than what they were paying before prices went up.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:29 am to The Levee
quote:Are you talking timber or lumber? Yes, plenty of timber but you pay through the nose for lumber and that's if you can even find a 2x6. So lumber supply is definitely the issue for a myriad of reasons relating to Covid
Second, supply isn’t the issue..
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:29 am to The Levee
you are correct
a friend of mine sells pine on some land he has. he said he ain't making shite off these high prices
a friend of mine sells pine on some land he has. he said he ain't making shite off these high prices
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:30 am to The Levee
Steel is not next, it was before wood prices and still climbing. We've seen steel prices rise over 60% since last August. Word is it may flatten out over the summer.... we'll see.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:30 am to ksayetiger
I've heard the same from someone that owns a lot of tree farm land in Mississippi.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:31 am to Rex Feral
They were given an excuse to raise their prices, and they won’t lower them. They will keep going up, that’s the problem.
The market will correct itself when construction halts due to prices.
I’m not making excuses. Just explaining what is happening.
The market will correct itself when construction halts due to prices.
I’m not making excuses. Just explaining what is happening.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:31 am to The Levee
My understanding is that it is a lack of available sawmill capacity to handle all of this due to closures over the years.
Until demand drops or capacity increases, we’re fricked.
Until demand drops or capacity increases, we’re fricked.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:32 am to The Levee
I got my chips on:
1. Trump
2. Systemic racism
3. Capitalism
1. Trump
2. Systemic racism
3. Capitalism
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:33 am to teke184
2 or 3 sawmills are under construction in LA and MS... guess we will see.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:33 am to back9Tiger
quote:
I've heard the same from someone that owns a lot of tree farm land in Mississippi.
That’s a problem with the market. If lumber prices rise, you’d think the farmers would get more. But the supply is abundant so they won’t. I’m just explaining why.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:35 am to The Levee
quote:
Fourth, the people getting screwed in this deal are
1. The consumer
no shite.
i’m in process of building a wooden privacy fence.
gonna cost me about 5 times what it would have if i had built it a year ago.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:38 am to The Levee
quote:Epoch Times
“The supply chain for residential construction is tight, particularly regarding the cost and availability of lumber, appliances, and other building materials,” NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke said in a statement.
At the onset of the health crisis, “the mills stopped producing,” said Dustin Jalbert, senior economist and lumber industry specialist at Fastmarkets in Burlington, Massachusetts. “As soon as they saw 20 million unemployed, they shut down production.”
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:40 am to The Levee
Lumber has not seen a price increase outside of fuel cost associated with its production. These companies are ramping up prices because they can.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:42 am to The Levee
someone read the WSJ article
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:42 am to The Levee
quote:
First, this is a supply chain issue
They never stopped at the OSB mills around here even with skeleton crews. Just stock piled and releasing as they want.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:43 am to The Levee
Built a house with a friend 9 years ago. Going through some old papers yesterday and found my invoice for the lumber we bought from Lowes.
I purchased 119 4x8 sheets of 7/16” OSB for $810 after my 5% discount.
Today those same 119 sheets would run just shy of $5k.
I purchased 119 4x8 sheets of 7/16” OSB for $810 after my 5% discount.
Today those same 119 sheets would run just shy of $5k.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:46 am to concrete_tiger
quote:
someone read the WSJ article
I read everything I can on it. Any other articles you recommend?
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:46 am to The Levee
Add in...probably pretty easy to work house construction on a cash basis, so sitting at home collecting UI and getting a cash paying side gig....
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:48 am to concrete_tiger
We have seen an increase locally, but we have 2 new sawmills in operation, and our land is relatively easily accessible compared to some.
That being said.
1. oversupply due to planting in the 80s-90s encouraged by gubment. On our farm, we actually did take hundreds of acres of cropland out of circulation and planted in trees.
2. sawmill shutdowns put a dent in supply
3. actual demand skyrocketed due to people remodeling, building stupid dividers and such, etc
4. While demand at retail is high, the pinch is at the sawmill, not in the forest.
That being said.
1. oversupply due to planting in the 80s-90s encouraged by gubment. On our farm, we actually did take hundreds of acres of cropland out of circulation and planted in trees.
2. sawmill shutdowns put a dent in supply
3. actual demand skyrocketed due to people remodeling, building stupid dividers and such, etc
4. While demand at retail is high, the pinch is at the sawmill, not in the forest.
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