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Diamondawg
Mississippi St. Fan
Mississippi
Member since Oct 2006
22401 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

no shite.
i’m in process of building a wooden privacy fence.
gonna cost me about 5 times what it would have if i had built it a year ago.


During February, I built a 6 ft pine wooden fence with a 6 ft gate for $1850 for 240 linear ft at a remodel. That's with 30+ 4x4 posts. That's about $7.75 a ft. So you are going to spend $38.75/ft? I believe I would wait.


3nOut
Texas A&M Fan
Central Texas, TX
Member since Jan 2013
19335 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

They were given an excuse to raise their prices, and they won’t lower them. They will keep going up, that’s the problem.

The market will correct itself when construction halts due to prices.

I’m not making excuses. Just explaining what is happening.




i posted it last weekend, but there's a dude in lumber that said this is the case on the OT back in March or Feb.

mills increased the cost of lumber last year due to cost of timber and limited supply, but after timber costs went down and supply picked back up, they kept the cost of processed lumber the same.

from my understanding, it's the literal definition of price gouging.

lumber/=timber


concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
1311 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)



quote:

I read everything I can on it. Any other articles you recommend?


WSJ story on lumber pricing (youtube)


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The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7908 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

Steel is not next, it was before wood prices and still climbing. We've seen steel prices rise over 60% since last August. Word is it may flatten out over the summer.... we'll see.


Cold-rolled steel is skyrocketing right now. Resin values are extremely volatile but trending upwards
This post was edited on 5/3 at 11:51 am


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Bard
LSU Fan
Poli Board President-Elect
Member since Oct 2008
39725 posts
 Online 

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

First, this is a supply chain issue. Covid has raised demand with home improvements, low interest rates and bored Americans.

Second, supply isn’t the issue...America has always been rich in natural resources, especially lumber. In fact, the government snowballed our oversupply in the 80’s and 90’s by paying tree farmers to plant pine. Now the South is flush with pine. The reasoning behind this wasn’t to boost lumber business. It was to boost other commodities.

Third, when you pay people to sit at home on their asses, they don’t go work manual labor and transport. Raising the prices of lumber. This is Biden’s fault.

Fourth, the people getting screwed in this deal are
1. The consumer
2. The tree farmers (sawmills can pick and choose who is cheapest)

Who is benefitting?

Lowe’s, Home Depot, and every sawmill.


Glut on Supply, bottleneck on process and some exterior factors pushing Demand unnaturally high?

I predict mill expansions and more mills being built.


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The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7908 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
So I guess the only chance of relief that we will get it, is if more sawmills open and compete with one another nationwide


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AUMIS01
Auburn Fan
Atlanta
Member since May 2020
610 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

no shite.
i’m in process of building a wooden privacy fence.
gonna cost me about 5 times what it would have if i had built it a year ago.


We're holding off on a huge deck project until lumber comes down. I know what the estimates were before lumber went through the roof, I don't even want to know what they would be now. Just building a raised garden bed is twice what it was when I built my first one last year.


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10
GeauxFightingTigers1
Member since Oct 2016
8698 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

Second, supply isn’t the issue


Seems to be, but you don't appear to be tracking the real supply. Trees are not in short supply, lumber is.


The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7908 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

Trees are not in short supply, lumber is.


Saw mills are full to the brim


GeauxFightingTigers1
Member since Oct 2016
8698 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

Saw mills are full to the brim


If true, than you still have a lumber shortage... as the lumber is not available. Its still a shortage. Whether that is due to the companies holding back supply or the supply chain.

Last year there was a beef supply shortage, but all the processors were processing to the max.
This post was edited on 5/3 at 11:57 am


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Vacherie Saint
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Aug 2015
27058 posts
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re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
The housing boom happened and rates never went up. The only thing that changed was underwriters were more selective.
Rates are now half of what they were when the industry went tits up.
Add on top of that, supply chain issues, labor shortages, and the northern states continuing to consume lumber through the winter and you have a recipe for disaster.


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concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
1311 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

Saw mills are full to the brim



Yeah, but saw mills closed left and right over the past decade. New ones are finally coming on line, but the capacity isn't there to match the demand.

We had 2 mills and a plywood plant in my tiny little hometown as a kid, and today, there are zero. You have truck logs 30-60 minutes to get to the nearest mill, but that is changing.

There was supposed to be some pellet factory opening, but have no clue where that landed.


bamacoullion
LSU Fan
Fayette, Alabama
Member since Oct 2008
952 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
I hear you, I have 40 acres planted in pines, might do OK with Chip-n-saw but you have to give a way pulpwood.


concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
1311 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
I am getting a retaining wall quoted as we speak, it would be 60-70ft depending on final design, and block is cheaper right now.

It's absurd, and I see new houses breaking ground everywhere right now, the current prices are easily adding 25% to the cost, not sure why they won't just wait a little bit, unless they are afraid interest rates are about to shoot up. Even so, does that justify an extra $100k on a house? (median house here is $700k)


bayoudude
LSU Fan
Houma
Member since Dec 2007
21248 posts
 Online 

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Had a contractor tell me it’s the first time in his career that lumber prices are higher than labor


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The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7908 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
I’m glad we have hardwoods


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DumpsterFire
Arkansas Fan
Member since Sep 2012
1399 posts
 Online 

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

i posted it last weekend, but there's a dude in lumber that said this is the case on the OT back in March or Feb.

mills increased the cost of lumber last year due to cost of timber and limited supply, but after timber costs went down and supply picked back up, they kept the cost of processed lumber the same.

from my understanding, it's the literal definition of price gouging.

lumber/=timber



I strongly disagree with everything you are saying here. The cost of timber had no effect on the cost of lumber last year. The cost of lumber went up because it is a commodity product, and demand outpaced supply. This is how the market works with all commodities.

Supply has picked back up, but demand is still through the roof. Housing starts finally made it back to 2006 levels last month, and the lumber production is not equipped to handle that much demand at the moment. Some of it has to do with US mill closures after the housing crisis, but a lot also has to do with a drop in Canadian production due to a lower allowable timber harvest from the Canadian government.

Lumber production isn't just something you can increase with the flip of a switch. It takes years to build and start-up a new mill. If demand continues to stay this strong, then lumber prices will remain elevated. They won't stay at $1500, but they should hover around $1000.

The current craziness has to do with the fact that builders/lumber yards quoted all these jobs 90 days out then sat around waiting for lumber prices to fall. Lumber prices didn't fall as expected, so now all these people have to cover their commitments and have turned the cash lumber market into a feeding frenzy.


McCaigBro69
US Space Force Fan
TigerDroppings Premium Member
Member since Oct 2014
40937 posts
 Online 

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

Steel is not next, it was before wood prices and still climbing. We've seen steel prices rise over 60% since last August. Word is it may flatten out over the summer.... we'll see.


This. I’m in scaffolding and it’s wild how much we’ve had to increase prices because of the steel increase over the last year.


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TigerFan55555
LSU Fan
Tomball, TX
Member since Nov 2008
8431 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Its artificial Demand gouging by the major retailers and everyone is following...

Mills only shut down for two weeks last year... they arent behind on anything. Its not transportation cost either as their prices havent gone up. Tree farmers arent getting the money either...

This is 100% Obama/Biden to price out the consumer and drive up the cost of housing...

check out the price of wooden bats... they arent going up...

its all targeted to building/making things... creating a shortage that isnt there... metal is up, lumber is up, food cost are up. chlorine for pools is up... there is no shortage...

Ive called 27 lumber mills in the northwest and northeast, they didnt shut down... the markup is at Retail.. Home Depot/Lowes etc...

I run a shop. I buy 10k in lumber every two weeks..

I even called the news to run a story on what Ive found, you know the answer i got... this is 100% trying to put people out of business... That money home depot and lowes are making is going right back to the democrats pocket... dont buy from there, try and find a mill and buy direct or a small mom and pop shop if you can find one.. We have a McCoys nearby and I go there... they are 5$ less per board.. 2x4 is 6-7$... home depot is 12$

Home Depot and Lowes is not your friend... corporate is going to be on the side that they think is going to win.. right now they think that socialism is going to win...


3nOut
Texas A&M Fan
Central Texas, TX
Member since Jan 2013
19335 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
I’m totally open to being wrong here. Just repeating the quote from a guy in the business on the OT. I will say my contractor that redid our house echoed the sentiment that he had no problem getting any lumber but just that the costs weren’t going back down and supply restocked from Covid shutdowns.

I’m not speaking as an expert but quoting from somebody who says they are. I’ll try and find the post.


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