re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)

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They were given an excuse to raise their prices, and they won’t lower them. They will keep going up, that’s the problem.

The market will correct itself when construction halts due to prices.

I’m not making excuses. Just explaining what is happening.

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i posted it last weekend, but there's a dude in lumber that said this is the case on the OT back in March or Feb.

mills increased the cost of lumber last year due to cost of timber and limited supply, but after timber costs went down and supply picked back up, they kept the cost of processed lumber the same.

from my understanding, it's the literal definition of price gouging.

lumber/=timber

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Steel is not next, it was before wood prices and still climbing. We've seen steel prices rise over 60% since last August. Word is it may flatten out over the summer.... we'll see.

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Cold-rolled steel is skyrocketing right now. Resin values are extremely volatile but trending upwards

So I guess the only chance of relief that we will get it, is if more sawmills open and compete with one another nationwide

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Second, supply isn’t the issue

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Seems to be, but you don't appear to be tracking the real supply. Trees are not in short supply, lumber is.

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Saw mills are full to the brim

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If true, than you still have a lumber shortage... as the lumber is not available. Its still a shortage. Whether that is due to the companies holding back supply or the supply chain.

Last year there was a beef supply shortage, but all the processors were processing to the max.

The housing boom happened and rates never went up. The only thing that changed was underwriters were more selective.
Rates are now half of what they were when the industry went tits up.
Add on top of that, supply chain issues, labor shortages, and the northern states continuing to consume lumber through the winter and you have a recipe for disaster.

I hear you, I have 40 acres planted in pines, might do OK with Chip-n-saw but you have to give a way pulpwood.

Had a contractor tell me it’s the first time in his career that lumber prices are higher than labor

quote:

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i posted it last weekend, but there's a dude in lumber that said this is the case on the OT back in March or Feb.

mills increased the cost of lumber last year due to cost of timber and limited supply, but after timber costs went down and supply picked back up, they kept the cost of processed lumber the same.

from my understanding, it's the literal definition of price gouging.

lumber/=timber

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I strongly disagree with everything you are saying here. The cost of timber had no effect on the cost of lumber last year. The cost of lumber went up because it is a commodity product, and demand outpaced supply. This is how the market works with all commodities.

Supply has picked back up, but demand is still through the roof. Housing starts finally made it back to 2006 levels last month, and the lumber production is not equipped to handle that much demand at the moment. Some of it has to do with US mill closures after the housing crisis, but a lot also has to do with a drop in Canadian production due to a lower allowable timber harvest from the Canadian government.

Lumber production isn't just something you can increase with the flip of a switch. It takes years to build and start-up a new mill. If demand continues to stay this strong, then lumber prices will remain elevated. They won't stay at $1500, but they should hover around $1000.

The current craziness has to do with the fact that builders/lumber yards quoted all these jobs 90 days out then sat around waiting for lumber prices to fall. Lumber prices didn't fall as expected, so now all these people have to cover their commitments and have turned the cash lumber market into a feeding frenzy.

Its artificial Demand gouging by the major retailers and everyone is following...

Mills only shut down for two weeks last year... they arent behind on anything. Its not transportation cost either as their prices havent gone up. Tree farmers arent getting the money either...

This is 100% Obama/Biden to price out the consumer and drive up the cost of housing...

check out the price of wooden bats... they arent going up...

its all targeted to building/making things... creating a shortage that isnt there... metal is up, lumber is up, food cost are up. chlorine for pools is up... there is no shortage...

Ive called 27 lumber mills in the northwest and northeast, they didnt shut down... the markup is at Retail.. Home Depot/Lowes etc...

I run a shop. I buy 10k in lumber every two weeks..

I even called the news to run a story on what Ive found, you know the answer i got... this is 100% trying to put people out of business... That money home depot and lowes are making is going right back to the democrats pocket... dont buy from there, try and find a mill and buy direct or a small mom and pop shop if you can find one.. We have a McCoys nearby and I go there... they are 5$ less per board.. 2x4 is 6-7$... home depot is 12$

Home Depot and Lowes is not your friend... corporate is going to be on the side that they think is going to win.. right now they think that socialism is going to win...