Posted by
Message
cwill
Member since Jan 2005
47597 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
40
DumpsterFire
Arkansas Fan
Member since Sep 2012
1399 posts
 Online 

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
If you drive by a lumber mill, it is easy to think that mills have a huge stockpile because of the massive stacks of finished lumber you will see. It is likely that those massive stacks are only about a week's worth of production that is awaiting shipment. Mill's don't have the space to store millions of board feet of excess production.


concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
1311 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

I’m totally open to being wrong here. Just repeating the quote from a guy in the business on the OT. I will say my contractor that redid our house echoed the sentiment that he had no problem getting any lumber but just that the costs weren’t going back down and supply restocked from Covid shutdowns.

I’m not speaking as an expert but quoting from somebody who says they are. I’ll try and find the post.


I couldn't find fencing boards for months. Stores are filling gaps with imported lumber. Domestic mills cannot meet the demand.

We have more than enough trees.
We don't have enough mill capacity.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
20
3nOut
Texas A&M Fan
Central Texas, TX
Member since Jan 2013
19335 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
2 dueces


You’re welcome to correct me. I’m no expert.


David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
3692 posts
 Online 

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

4. While demand at retail is high, the pinch is at the sawmill, not in the forest.

It's interesting that saw mills, at least one I'm aware of, have shut down in the last couple of months while lumber prices skyrocket. A sawmill that's been running for forever was shutdown in SD because the Biden administration, over the written objection of the South Dakota congressional delegation and governor, pulled back severely the amount of logging that can be done in the Black Hills. Just a guess, but this isn't a one-off?

And it's not just logging. A large copper mine east of Phoenix that's been in development for a decade and was greenlighted by the Trump administration had its permits yanked before final issue by Biden. Again, I doubt this is a one-off situation.

We know what Biden did to the pipeline and fracking.

The upshot, and something people need to get their heads around - the a-holes running Biden pay lip service to "build back better" and opportunities and all the typical happy horseshite, but their policy is actually "degrowth" - - - our betters, that is the middle/upper-middle class's superiors (Tucker Carlson refers to them as the ruling class) have decided we consume far, far too much. Our consumption is killing the planet, inequitable (at home and abroad), and I personally get the sense there's a belief held by these a-holes that we don't deserve it - "you didn't build that".

The uber-wealthy and the companies and politicians they control are waging an economic war from the top down, and so far it's not a fair fight. While you/your families are looking at serious inflation at home and curious restrictions on output at work (from raw materials to building), our overlords have never done better than they have since the pandemic hit.

Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft just reported incredible results. Those 5 companies alone now account for nearly 25% of the S&P 500. Now think about how politically active these companies have become. Think about where their major shareholders put their money. Remember when quid pro quo and election interference were things?


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
80
GeauxFightingTigers1
Member since Oct 2016
8698 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

Lumber production isn't just something you can increase with the flip of a switch. It takes years to build and start-up a new mill.


Yup.

Chip shortages is going to probably be years. Than when stuff comes online there is huge demand that wasn't being supplied.... which now has to catch up.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
00
tigeraddict
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
9215 posts
 Online 

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
copper, steel, PVC are up since last year as well....



concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
1311 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Just wait until Mr. Biden requires electric skidders, fellow-bunchers, and trucks. Or more likely, he will require axes and mules, and that you immediately replant the the felled tree, after a brief memorial service.

I'm a little worried about where we are headed, I won't lie. We just planted another 30k trees this winter that should, in theory, help with college and retirement. I may be out there picking beetles out by hand, but that's where the $$ have gone. As my dad phases out of cows, we will putting a couple thousand acres into trees, we will have no use for cropland. Might need to research planting some solar panels, I guess. Only issue is I don't think there's much demand for it in BFE.


The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7908 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Build a crypto farm and learn to code.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
30
DumpsterFire
Arkansas Fan
Member since Sep 2012
1399 posts
 Online 

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

2 dueces


You’re welcome to correct me. I’m no expert.


He sounds like a conspiracy theorist who has no idea how commodity markets work. The price of lumber isn't dependent on the input costs (labor, logs) at the mill. It is dependent on supply and demand. Demand is at all time highs while supply is not. It is that simple.

His solution to the supply/demand imbalance is to simply have the government come in and regulate the price. Great idea.



TD SponsorTD Fan
USA
Member since 2001
Thank you for supporting our sponsors
Advertisement
idlewatcher
USA Fan
County Jail
Member since Jan 2012
54658 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

a friend of mine sells pine on some land he has. he said he ain't making shite off these high prices


Surprised he didn't base it off of the index.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
00
The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7908 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

It is dependent on supply and demand. Demand is at all time highs while supply is not. It is that simple.



Saw mills are fricking the growers. Period. They have the ability to choose who they buy from and bid as low as possible.


TheRouxGuru
US Army Fan
Member since Nov 2019
2104 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

During February, I built a 6 ft pine wooden fence with a 6 ft gate for $1850 for 240 linear ft at a remodel. That's with 30+ 4x4 posts. That's about $7.75 a ft. So you are going to spend $38.75/ft? I believe I would wait.


I was quoted $20-23 ln ft in January


TideCPA
Alabama Fan
Member since Jan 2012
5663 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

You’re welcome to correct me. I’m no expert.
DumpsterFire is absolutely correct. The pinch is at the mill, and mills take years to come online because they are extremely capital intensive. When the economy cratered in 2008 a bunch of mills were wiped out because there was no longer enough construction demand to justify their existence, so production capacity has only been high enough to meet what has primarily been a stagnant or slowly growing housing market. Then COVID hit and the existing mills prepared for even lower demand only to be blindsided by a blitz in consumer and construction lumber demand that hasn't been seen in well over a decade.

Assuming the demand stays hot, the market will correct itself, but not until more capacity is created (which won't happen in the next couple years).

High lumber prices are here to stay, for a while at least. Timber prices won't increase until the mills are able to chew through the supply, maybe 5-10 years off if construction remains strong.
This post was edited on 5/3 at 12:56 pm


The Levee
LSU Fan
Bat Country
Member since Feb 2006
7908 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
I’d you own over 100k acres of timber, some major corporations will pay you NOT to cut to offset their climate impact and so they can receive a tax credit. True story.


TideCPA
Alabama Fan
Member since Jan 2012
5663 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

I’d you own over 100k acres of timber, some major corporations will pay you NOT to cut to offset their climate impact and so they can receive a tax credit. True story.
Believe me, I'm well aware. ESG-related income streams, like carbon credit sales, mitigation banking, and conservation easements have been one of the few bright spots within the institutional timberland space recently.


Diamondawg
Mississippi St. Fan
Mississippi
Member since Oct 2006
22401 posts
 Online 

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

I was quoted $20-23 ln ft in January

For materials and you build or someone else?


White Bear
USA Fan
NWLA
Member since Jul 2014
7666 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

. As my dad phases out of cows, we will putting a couple thousand acres into trees, we will have no use for cropland.
CRP?

You might have a huge need for that cropland soon.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
00
DumpsterFire
Arkansas Fan
Member since Sep 2012
1399 posts
 Online 

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

Saw mills are fricking the growers. Period. They have the ability to choose who they buy from and bid as low as possible.



This is just how supply and demand works. There is an abundance of supply, so the mills are in the drivers seat with regards to pricing. If there was a shortage of timber, then land owners would be choosing who they wanted to sell too at a much higher price.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
10
3nOut
Texas A&M Fan
Central Texas, TX
Member since Jan 2013
19335 posts

re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
quote:

His solution to the supply/demand imbalance is to simply have the government come in and regulate the price. Great idea.



he specifically said he's not in favor of government regulation.

personally, i'm really against government regulation as well, but sometimes the market is gonna asshoe. the only reason i ever want the government to intervene when it's obvious that actors are going to take advantage of people.

i don't want any laws against payday loans, but people keep exploiting people with payday loan shops, so i'm not that mad about laws existing.

i realize that makes me not pure free market, but i do have some morals from my faith that override my politics.


first pageprev pagePage 3 of 6next pagelast page

Back to top

logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram