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Started By
Message
re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Posted on 5/3/21 at 4:07 pm to TigerAxeOK
Posted on 5/3/21 at 4:07 pm to TigerAxeOK
quote:A 6 ft treated pine at our Lowe's is 2.37. The lowest I ever remember is 1.69. 120 ft is probably 250 boards. $422.50 vs 592.50. You wait but it will be a long time if ever that you see 1.69 again.
Yeah I had about 120 feet of 6' privacy fence boards to replace before lumber skyrocketed. frick all that now, gonna have to wait.
1
Posted on 5/3/21 at 8:58 pm to Diamondawg
quote:
6 ft treated pine at our Lowe's is 2.37. The lowest I ever remember is 1.69. 120 ft is probably 250 boards. $422.50 vs 592.50. You wait but it will be a long time if ever that you see 1.69 again.
You put it so logically that it's impossible to argue against.
Just please don't tell Mrs. TigerAxe, because honestly I already have enough home improvement honey-do's to tackle this season and lumber price had thus far been a valid excuse to delay that particular project
Posted on 5/3/21 at 9:28 pm to The Levee
quote:
The market willm correct itself when construction halts due to prices.
That might already be happening. Was picking up some eave vents last Saturday and the owner of the lumberyard/hardware store I frequent said April was a terrible month for lumber sales. He said no one is buying lumber right now.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:47 am to Diamondawg
quote:
During February, I built a 6 ft pine wooden fence with a 6 ft gate for $1850 for 240 linear ft at a remodel. That's with 30+ 4x4 posts. That's about $7.75 a ft. So you are going to spend $38.75/ft?
i’m doing about 180’
i’m over $2,000 already and still have about 24 - 2x4 and maybe 70 or so fence boards to purchase.
quote:
I believe I would wait.
Issue is that the neighbor behind me dog ripped a chunk of my dog’s ear off.
so i’m using this as a border wall type situation.
i have the back wall (and shortest side wall) up.
i already have enough 4x4 to finish (should have a few left over).
Issue is a pecan tree in way of next side that i’m not sure how i’m going to handle.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 7:54 pm to DumpsterFire
You’re both freaking idiots. The problem is mills can’t find employment cause of the enhanced unemployment benefits. Therefore mills are able to set the price of lumber because they can’t keep up with demand. Like I said previously. If the cost to cut an acre of timber hasn’t changed but yet the mills can charge whatever they want for lumber there’s an issue. Don’t talk to me about conspiracy issues. Like I said I work in the lumber business and my family has for over 40 years. Learn your shite before you start spouting at the mouth. Look up any article about lumber prices. The mills set the market. Period. If they can’t hire the people to meet demand then they can charge whatever they want for supply. You’re a damn idiot.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 9:40 pm to The Levee
I think demand is out of whack and anyone that can take advantage of the situation is going to do it. From the retailers to the mills.
I remember when oil was hitting highs and people were talking about the imbalance in the supply demand equation and how it was going to stay high for a long time and wham! China hit a pothole and demand for oil was suddenly much much less and the price fell off a cliff.
Something’s coming to throw cold water on this demand for lumber- maybe a rise in interest rates; maybe the lessened stimulus, maybe the herd immunity to covid chills the appetite for home improvement ... maybe a bit of all of it but it’s coming. Not sure when but it’s coming.
Trees don’t grow to the sky
I remember when oil was hitting highs and people were talking about the imbalance in the supply demand equation and how it was going to stay high for a long time and wham! China hit a pothole and demand for oil was suddenly much much less and the price fell off a cliff.
Something’s coming to throw cold water on this demand for lumber- maybe a rise in interest rates; maybe the lessened stimulus, maybe the herd immunity to covid chills the appetite for home improvement ... maybe a bit of all of it but it’s coming. Not sure when but it’s coming.
Trees don’t grow to the sky
Posted on 5/4/21 at 9:46 pm to 2Dueces
quote:it’s a supply issue created by a lack of mills, lack of competition. Been the case for a decade or better as evidenced by stagnant pine log prices. OSB mills don’t grow on trees either, definitely a lack of mill issue.
The mills set the market.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 9:47 pm to The Levee
Price gauging is Fauci approved.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 10:42 pm to TigerFan55555
quote:
This is 100% Obama/Biden to price out the consumer and drive up the cost of housing.
This was happening during the Trump administration
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:18 pm to back9Tiger
Steel is still far cheaper than pre July 2008
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:19 pm to Rex Feral
We import as a nation, much from Canada. Since Biden screwed Canada's income (the nation gets all the royalties from oil) What did Trudeau do to delay or slow shipments?
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:20 pm to Penrod
One of the issues is a lack of competition. There used to be a sawmill in every little town in rural LA and MS. These small and mid major mills kept the majors honest and timber prices reasonable. Now there is basically Weyhauser locally and no real competition. A forester friend told me timber prices today are about equal to those from the mid’70’s.. the timber folks aren’t reaping any windfall. The sawmills and retailers are price gouging because they can.
If this was a Hurricane issue and people were selling ice and bread for these type prices it would be illegal. These mills and retailers are at best taking advantage of the consumer.
I’d be embarrassed to say how little I was paid for 80 truckloads of sawlogs and pulpwood last year. Anybody trying to make a living on tree farming would starve to death..
If this was a Hurricane issue and people were selling ice and bread for these type prices it would be illegal. These mills and retailers are at best taking advantage of the consumer.
I’d be embarrassed to say how little I was paid for 80 truckloads of sawlogs and pulpwood last year. Anybody trying to make a living on tree farming would starve to death..
Posted on 5/5/21 at 12:30 am to 3nOut
quote:
from my understanding, it's the literal definition of price gouging.
From my understanding of economics it is the literal definition of market pricing. They are able to maintain the current price level because the demand for their lumber supports it. If there is a actually a surplus other sellers will lower their price forcing them to lower thers, the market always returns to equilibrium.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 8:01 am to 2Dueces
quote:
u’re both freaking idiots. The problem is mills can’t find employment cause of the enhanced unemployment benefits. Therefore mills are able to set the price of lumber because they can’t keep up with demand. Like I said previously. If the cost to cut an acre of timber hasn’t changed but yet the mills can charge whatever they want for lumber there’s an issue. Don’t talk to me about conspiracy issues. Like I said I work in the lumber business and my family has for over 40 years. Learn your shite before you start spouting at the mouth. Look up any article about lumber prices. The mills set the market. Period. If they can’t hire the people to meet demand then they can charge whatever they want for supply. You’re a damn idiot.
We agree that there is a supply/demand imbalance, and I even agree that labor is a major major issue for sawmills. You just have a fundamental misunderstanding of how commodity markets work. Higher demand causes prices to go up. It is that simple. If you have 100 units and demand is for 200 units, then the price is going to go up. Those higher prices will eventually knock out enough demand to where you have a balanced market. Mills right now are fielding calls all day from people offering way over the current Random Lengths prices in order to secure product. Are you suggesting that mills should just say, “No our costs haven’t gone up, so we will just sell it to you for $400/mbf instead of $1500?”
You seem to be arguing that lumber prices should only be allowed to go up if input costs at the mill also go up. I’m not sure what to say to this other than fact that it isn’t how markets work at all.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 11:31 am to 2Dueces
quote:
Like I said previously. If the cost to cut an acre of timber hasn’t changed but yet the mills can charge whatever they want for lumber there’s an issue.
It’s called capitalism, you sell your product for what the market will pay, what the mills are paying for timber has no bearing on what they sell the lumber, or maybe you would prefer the government set limits on the profit margins of private businesses.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 11:42 am to The Levee
quote:
Covid has raised demand with home improvements, low interest rates and bored Americans.
That’s about 5% of it.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 11:55 am to 2Dueces
quote:This makes zero sense. If the lack of supply from the mills was driven by employment issues, then more capital wouldn't be pouring into the US South to build more. Sawmills are printing money right now due to the imbalance between demand for their finished product and supply of their raw material, so if any of them are not running at 100% capacity it's their own damn fault.
You’re both freaking idiots. The problem is mills can’t find employment cause of the enhanced unemployment benefits. Therefore mills are able to set the price of lumber because they can’t keep up with demand. Like I said previously. If the cost to cut an acre of timber hasn’t changed but yet the mills can charge whatever they want for lumber there’s an issue. Don’t talk to me about conspiracy issues. Like I said I work in the lumber business and my family has for over 40 years. Learn your shite before you start spouting at the mouth. Look up any article about lumber prices. The mills set the market. Period. If they can’t hire the people to meet demand then they can charge whatever they want for supply. You’re a damn idiot.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 11:57 am to dovehunter
quote:I am putting off a thin that is desperately needed because of prices. At some point, though, your lack of thinning could impact your long term growth. So sooner or later, you just have to take a beating and do what you have to do.
I’d be embarrassed to say how little I was paid for 80 truckloads of sawlogs and pulpwood last year. Anybody trying to make a living on tree farming would starve to death..
Posted on 5/5/21 at 12:04 pm to dovehunter
quote:The issue isn't a lack of competition, it's a lack of mills to supply finished lumber. The reason a lot of mom-and-pop mills aren't around is due to the 2007-08 housing crash, which caused lumber demand to crater. The mills that survived were largely the bigger, more efficient ones that could get more value out of a log than the small old-school ones.
One of the issues is a lack of competition. There used to be a sawmill in every little town in rural LA and MS. These small and mid major mills kept the majors honest and timber prices reasonable. Now there is basically Weyhauser locally and no real competition. A forester friend told me timber prices today are about equal to those from the mid’70’s.. the timber folks aren’t reaping any windfall. The sawmills and retailers are price gouging because they can.
Timber is oversupplied in the US south due to the last recession. With fewer mills processing logs, the remaining timber inventory has seen growth well in excess of harvests. Timber owners won't see any benefit from the current housing frenzy until more mill capacity comes online to chew through that excess.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 12:12 pm to Diamondawg
quote:You're going to be disappointed if you're waiting for pulpwood price increases. The current lumber frenzy is actually creating even more downward price pressure on pulpwood because the amount of chips being produced by sawmills is increasing, which paper mills can use as raw material, usually at a cheaper price than pulpwood (since the only cost is transportation).
I am putting off a thin that is desperately needed because of prices. At some point, though, your lack of thinning could impact your long term growth. So sooner or later, you just have to take a beating and do what you have to do.
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