re: Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)

I think the lack of mills, huge demand at retail, and the vertically-integrated timber co's are reaping the higher profits from their company-owned lands.

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Believe me, I'm well aware. ESG-related income streams, like carbon credit sales, mitigation banking, and conservation easements have been one of the few bright spots within the institutional timberland space recently.

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You think this is an option for 700 acres? I need help!

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For materials and you build or someone else?

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Someone else

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i realize that makes me not pure free market, but i do have some morals from my faith that override my politics.

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And we don't have a free market -

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he specifically said he's not in favor of government regulation.

personally, i'm really against government regulation as well, but sometimes the market is gonna asshoe. the only reason i ever want the government to intervene when it's obvious that actors are going to take advantage of people.

i don't want any laws against payday loans, but people keep exploiting people with payday loan shops, so i'm not that mad about laws existing.

i realize that makes me not pure free market, but i do have some morals from my faith that override my politics.

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There are no actors taking advantage of people. No one is forcing people to build a house, remodel, or put up a privacy fence. If the price of lumber is too high, then just don't buy it. If enough people are un-willing to pay the price, then the price will fall until the point that people are willing to pay it. People can stomach a price increase in lumber more than they can some other commodities because they can mortgage the cost of that lumber over the course of 30 years for 2.5%.

If the major lumber players were scheming to constrict supply in an effort to drive high prices, then that would be highly illegal and those companies would be punished. That is absolutely not the case though. Management at any company that is constricting production right now would get run out of their jobs due to the enormous amount of money they would be forfeiting.

A little over a year ago, the price of lumber was $250/mbf because no one really wanted it. I didn't see people getting on message boards to talk about the grave injustice being done to lumber mills who were hemorrhaging money at those prices.

When Trump busted the Canadians on trade, they started sitting on their American sawmills.

Here’s a list of the U.S. mills now owned by Canadian companies:, You do the math:

West Fraser
Maplesville, Alabama
Opelka, Alabama
Huttig, Arkansas
Leola, Arkansas
Mansfield, Arkansas
Russellville, Arkansas
McDavid, Florida
Perry, Florida
Lake Butler, Florida
Maxville, Florida
Whitehouse, Florida
Blackshear, Georgia
Firzgerald, Georgia
Dudley, Georgia
Augusta, Georgia
Joyce, Louisiana
Armour, North Carolina
Seaboard, North Carolina
Newberry, South Carolina
Henderson, Texas
New Boston, Texas

Interfor
Monticello, Arkansas
Georgetown, South Carolina
Meldrim , Georgia
Baxley, Georgia
Swainsboro, Georgia
Preston, Georgia
Eatonton, Georgia
Perry, Georgia
Thomaston, Georgia
Port Angeles, Washington
Longview, Washington
Sumas, Washington
Molalla, Oregon
Gilchrist, Oregon

Canfor
Fulton, Alabama
Jackson, Alabama
Mobile, Alabama
El Dorado, Arkansas
Moultrie, Georgia
Thomasville, Georgia
Hermanville, Mississippi
Graham , North Carolina
Camden, North Carolina
Conway, South Carolina
Darlington, South Carolina
Marion, South Carolina

Western Forest Products
Arlington, Washington

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If we wanted to invest to capitalize in this which companies or funds would you recommend for steel / other materials or is it too late?

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US Steel and NUCOR are both at 52 week highs.

Yeah I had about 120 feet of 6' privacy fence boards to replace before lumber skyrocketed. frick all that now, gonna have to wait.

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Any recommendations for Mississippi?

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Unfortunately, we are in GA. Hopefully someone here can help!

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When Trump busted the Canadians on trade, they started sitting on their American sawmills.

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This started before Trump. For years the Canadians could not export enough lumber into the US market. To get around this, they invested in US lumber mills. Canada is one of the few regions that actually invested in lumber mills post 2008 housing collapse.

Lumber mills are setup to take an average size tree diameter to minimize scrap. The older pine is too large for the mills and unable to be processed. That is why there is a pine glut right now.