re: Rand Paul says the true cost of the tariffs is $2 trillion in taxes

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t's already been shown that foreign manufacturers are eating most of the tariffs.

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Goldman Sachs estimates U.S. consumers now shoulder two-thirds of President Trump’s new tariff costs, with more companies planning to pass them on in the future and foreign exporters refusing to “eat” the price hikes. The bank expects the measures to lift core PCE inflation (personal consumption expenditures) to 3.2% by year-end, adding pressure to the Fed’s 2% target.

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Economist Elsie Peng wrote in a note yesterday seen by Fortune that Goldman believes exporters absorbed 14% of the costs of all tariffs in June, which will rise to 25% by October if the sanctions follow a similar trajectory to the price hikes administered by the Trump administration in his first term.

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But the portion consumers can expect to pay is also on the rise. Peng noted that around 36% of the 2025 tariff costs were passed on to consumer prices after three months of implementation and around 67% were passed on after four months.

The economist added that “although the pass-through rate appears to be increasing rapidly over time, it still remains somewhat below the pass-through rate that we estimate at the same point in time during the 2018–2019 trade war.”

One portion of the economy that intends to reduce its share is U.S. businesses. The Conference Board released its U.S. CEO Confidence report for the third quarter last week, which revealed 64% are certain they would be passing the price hike on to consumers, and a further 16% said they’re still considering.

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