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Started By
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re: Ralston doesn't capitulate. Goes with .3% win for Kamala in NV.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:07 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:07 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
His justification isn’t terribly flawed but there is a bit of wishful thinking here and he may be right. I am hopeful he is wrong but I have never really counted Nevada as a win because of automatic voter registration. It really doesn’t matter if Trump wins Nevada he still has to win one of three Midwestern states to win assuming he wins NC and Georgia
2
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:07 pm to armtackledawg
What scares me is a lot of the reason for optimism for Trump is the republican gain in voter registration. I worry a lot of those are democrats that registered as republicans to vote for Hailey.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:09 pm to Rip Torner
Ya it's a side exercise. Most likely won't decide anything in the EC and now we can go back to trying to figure out if it means anything regarding the states that do matter.
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:10 pm to Golgi Apparatus
quote:
I think in this instance he is essentially claiming there’s some hidden vote that’s gonna barely put democrats over the finish line.
Something like this?
It's called cheating
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:11 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
I have never allowed myself to believe the hype about Nevada going red. The Dems routinely win that state.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:12 pm to Rip Torner
quote:
His justification isn’t terribly flawed
His justification is cheating. To most rational people that is pretty flawed.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:13 pm to Golgi Apparatus
It's called the "cheat vote" that they have to manufacture in the "weeks" that it takes to count the votes. These people need to be publicly executed. Only way to stop this shite.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:13 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
Nevada has a very low college educated % and has been one of the hardest hit states by inflation. It's going for Trump! 
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:13 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
He's doing this to keep his team happy. They'll tear him apart if he picks Trump. He knows he's gonna be wrong.
Previous predictions he would put up spreadsheets and break down the numbers.
He didn't do that this time. He just made up final % numbers of of thin air.
He'd rather stay in the good graces of lefties than be correct. Probably a good business decision.
Previous predictions he would put up spreadsheets and break down the numbers.
He didn't do that this time. He just made up final % numbers of of thin air.
He'd rather stay in the good graces of lefties than be correct. Probably a good business decision.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:14 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
Can't wait for this hack to lose credibility, along with Selzer in Iowa.
Don't forget Allan Lichtman
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:15 pm to Proximo
Why the frick does that state (which is mainly fricking desert) need 4 extra fricking days to count votes?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:15 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
Damn, not good. Ralston is legit with NV info. Let's hope he gets this one wrong
He is but he also has the worst case of TDS imaginable. He has picked against Democrats in the past but none of them had his level of hatred that he does for Trump.
With NV allowing mail-in votes to be received until Friday - and with everyone being automatically sent mail-in ballots, Harris probably will win NV because they can manufacture whatever votes they need on Wednesday but he isn't picking her to win because of mail-in votes. It's because it would make him physically sick to predict a Trump win.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:16 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
That’s a whole lotta speculative analysis based on qualitative factors just to somehow find a mere 3-5k vote victory for democrats when they won by 40k last time.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:18 pm to LSUminati
The dude has been wetting his pants for 3 weeks...
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:23 pm to MFn GIMP
quote:He can't SAY he's picking her because of mail-in votes, but that's why he did. Clark County will know on Wednesday morning exactly how many more ballots they need to get in by Friday and they will 100% find them.
With NV allowing mail-in votes to be received until Friday - and with everyone being automatically sent mail-in ballots, Harris probably will win NV because they can manufacture whatever votes they need on Wednesday but he isn't picking her to win because of mail-in votes
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:38 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
Ya it's a side exercise. Most likely won't decide anything in the EC
this is what my concern would be. drum up enough votes in philadelphia and all of a sudden, NV decides the election when it should be going to trump easily
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:39 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
Baris says hes giving you his HOPES not going by DATA
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:42 pm to TTOWN RONMON
I don't really think highly of Baris, but seems like Ralston is basically calling it a hunch himself
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:45 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
I should have done the mic drop in 2022.
Picking the winners in the top two races, both of which were agonizingly close, should have been the swan song, the ride off into the sunset on my oracular career. But, no, I couldn’t just rest on the laurels of correctly choosing Gov. Joe Lombardo (1.5 percent win) and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (under 1 percent win).
So here we go again.
I usually start these prediction columns by reminding you of my historical brilliance – Harry Reid in 2010, Dean Heller in 2012, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden winning in 2016 and 2020, respectively – as if that might ward off the I-told-you-so mafia in Muskland and the real world if I am wrong. Fool’s errand, right?
@Itweetinmypajamas and @Ihaveendlessmemestoposttomockyou are not the target audience, of course. In this polarized world we live in, the mindless vitriol gets worse, it becomes impossible to penetrate the silos of The Validation Culture.
Check out this mountain of salt he’s hedging with
What a bitter and pathetic hack
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