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re: Private payrolls shrunk 33k in June, badly missing expectations of 100k increase - ADP

Posted on 7/2/25 at 9:42 am to
Posted by sumtimeitbeslikedat
Vidalia, La
Member since Nov 2013
4912 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 9:42 am to
Two letters: AI
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
53527 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 9:48 am to
quote:

Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy that investors believed as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in the June, the ADP report showed. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said in a press release published Wednesday morning.

To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May’s soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week.



I wonder......hmmmm?

From Google AI....,

quote:

While precise figures are difficult to pinpoint, multiple sources suggest that AI, automation, and robotics have already replaced a significant number of jobs since 2023, with some estimates predicting millions of potential job losses. One study estimates that up to 300 million full-time jobs could be exposed to automation due to AI, according to Goldman Sachs. A separate report indicates that 76,440 jobs have already been cut due to automation this year (2025), particularly in software engineering, HR, customer service, content writing, and finance. A survey of business leaders found that 37% of companies using AI reported replacing workers because they were no longer needed,
Posted by Man4others
Member since Aug 2017
2439 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 9:56 am to
Shitty weather for the past 2 months on the east coast had more to due with layoffs than AI
Posted by slidingstop
Member since Jan 2025
1609 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 10:06 am to
quote:

Naively, I thought it would be harder to commit identity theft.


You're not naive. That predisposes some level of innocence. Your ignorant. And purposely obtuse. You absolutely refuse to understand or accept anything that hurts your feelings. That is why you are disliked and ridiculed here.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
53527 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 10:10 am to
quote:

Shitty weather for the past 2 months on the east coast had more to due with layoffs than AI


There are many contributing factors for lower employment numbers but to dismiss AI, automation and robotics as an insignificant non factor?
Posted by concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
7477 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 10:25 am to
33,000? Seems like an insignificant figure
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
58472 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 10:26 am to
quote:

You absolutely refuse to understand or accept anything that hurts your feelings.


You posted this in response to me essentially saying that my assumption was wrong after I was presented with evidence that contradicted my assumption. Your post doesn’t track at all with what you just witnessed above.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
99813 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 10:33 am to
Time to cut rates
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61227 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 10:34 am to
quote:

See you in 4 weeks for the monthly melt.


LOL
The only people melting are the SDV types who think we should lower rates and cause inflation to shoot back up.
Posted by NashvilleTider
Your Mom
Member since Jan 2007
15136 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 10:35 am to
Jobs numbers are only going to go down as AI ramps up - no one is ready for what’s about to happen
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
124665 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 10:36 am to
quote:

33,000? Seems like an insignificant figure


Well, a growing economy would have added 300,000. So a miss of 333,000 is a little bigger of a number.
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
41656 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Illegals pay payroll taxes?


With fake socials…probably.

They can also vote.
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
24455 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 11:17 am to
quote:

4cubbies


I really have no idea why you keep pushing ahead with your attempts to make yourself look like a complete idiot.

You should focus on raising your children and not being the butt of jokes here.
Posted by concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
7477 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 4:19 pm to
quote:

Well, a growing economy would have added 300,000.


You sure about that? We just rolled out AI tools across the board. Efficiency doesn’t mean more heads.

We are on pace for best year, ever, and aren’t hiring new people, just filling open roles.

All too often, these indicators are horse shite. Will see, I guess.

Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
124665 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 5:05 pm to
quote:

You sure about that?

Yes.
Posted by Diego Ricardo
Alabama
Member since Dec 2020
10882 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 5:17 pm to
quote:

Two letters: AI


Two more words: probably not
This post was edited on 7/2/25 at 5:18 pm
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
124665 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 5:20 pm to
Yeah. It’s not AI now.
Posted by Diego Ricardo
Alabama
Member since Dec 2020
10882 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 5:30 pm to
I’m on “AI is going to eliminate some jobs, create others, and augment many existing jobs” bandwagon. Not an AI doomer or AI cheerleader. We’ve seen this before…just adapt with the times.
Posted by KiwiHead
Auckland, NZ
Member since Jul 2014
35369 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 5:35 pm to
I guess you need a favorable rate so that you can finally get that 35hp outboard fixed.
Posted by BlueFalcon
Aberdeen Scotland
Member since Dec 2011
3353 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:56 pm to
We're at the end of the part where AI is creating jobs on pace with displacing them

The first half of this year saw ~80,000 jobs lost to AI with 80,000-125,000 created (with ~60% being W2 permanent full time and the rest being 1099 contract workers)

AI finna eat though and White Collar jobs are on the menu
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