Pompeo says he can beat Trump in Iowa; Noem, Haley, Pence, Cotton, Rick Scott are in

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Pompeo has told others that he can beat Trump in the Iowa caucuses, according to people familiar with the conversations.

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“My belief is they’re all going to run, and a big reason they’re running is based on the fact that if Mike Pence can run, we can all run,” said Tony Fabrizio, one of Trump’s pollsters. “What’s the loyalty argument if your vice president is running against you for president?”

For all the hits Trump has taken, Fabrizio said, his polling and public surveys show his favorability rating is still high among Republican voters: It hasn’t really fallen since he left office, and he’s still receiving about half of the 2024 GOP primary vote in crowded-field surveys, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis often trailing by double digits.

But DeSantis has been consistently inching closer to Trump in those surveys while everyone else is mired in single digits. The Florida governor has also won a few key conservative straw polls and, surprisingly, moved marginally ahead of Trump in a recent Republican poll in New Hampshire, the first-in-the-nation primary state.

Of the Republicans who might run in 2024, DeSantis and his team have denied the rumors the most. Additionally, the governor has not traveled with any great frequency to early voting states, only heading to a South Carolina fundraiser held on his behalf in May and an April event in Nevada for U.S. Senate candidate Adam Laxalt, who was DeSantis’ roommate at the Naval Justice School.

DeSantis adviser David Abrams said speculation about the governor's presidential positioning was "comically wrong" because he's focused solely on his day job and winning re-election.

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The debate over timing comes as investigations into the behavior of Trump and his associates are gathering steam. The Justice Department is looking into efforts to keep Trump in office after his defeat. Prosecutors in Fulton County, Ga., have convened a grand jury as part of an investigation into whether the former president and his team tried to influence the vote count there. Each is separate from the House committee scrutinizing his conduct in the run-up to the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6.

Among those urging Trump to announce soon is Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Graham said the former president would be blamed for — or credited with — whatever happened in the November elections and suggested that an early announcement would focus Trump's attention on policy.

"It's up to him if he runs or not," Graham said in an interview. "But the key to him being successful is comparing his policy agenda and policy successes with what is going on today."

Other Republican leaders have sought to dissuade Trump from an early announcement.

Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, had urged Trump to wait until after the midterms, worried that news about his campaign could derail the party's midterm messaging. One R.N.C. official noted that when Trump opened a campaign, the party would stop paying his legal bills related to an investigation by the New York attorney general. Still, McDaniel has recently resigned herself to the idea that he will announce before the elections, according to people familiar with the conversations.

But even Trump aides who are supportive of another campaign worry that the former president's path to a third nomination has become more difficult than he's willing to acknowledge.

Some close to Trump have grown concerned about potential legal and political consequences from the congressional hearings into the Capitol riot. Cassidy Hutchinson, a former White House aide, testified this week that Trump had known that some of his supporters were carrying weapons that day and had still encouraged his team to let them through security checkpoints. Rep. Liz Cheney, a Wyoming Republican who is on the committee, said the panel had evidence of witness tampering.

Trump signaled his concern about the potential political consequences of the testimony, reacting in real time to the hearing by posting a dozen messages on his Truth Social website attacking Hutchinson and denying her most explosive testimony.

There have been signs that growing numbers of Republican voters are looking beyond Trump.

Few Republican officeholders have spoken publicly about the hearings, and most have either said nothing about the congressional investigation or dismissed it as a partisan sham. But there have been signs that Republicans recognize its potential power.

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Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott charts contrarian path to future political endeavors

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