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re: Peter Schiff says we are early in the biggest bond market crash in U.S. history

Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:44 pm to
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54755 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:44 pm to
Did he try to sell you gold at the beginning, middle or end, or all of the above?
This post was edited on 10/3/23 at 12:46 pm
Posted by OccamsStubble
Member since Aug 2019
9033 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

quote:It’s crazy that we are essentially borrowing from China to pay for Ukraine, I mean it’s been crazy for a while, but there is no longer a point of reference, we are way off the path. Don't fall for that hype. The
Posted by ScottFowler
NE Ohio
Member since Sep 2012
4607 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:55 pm to
quote:

This scenario already played out in '80/'81 when Reagan had to clean up Carter's mess, and anyone sitting on boatloads of cash were able to get unbelievable rates on their money. Nobody was purchasing 18% real-estate deals back then, the ones that had the money were in cash and cash equivalents...then they struck and deployed/diversified back into hard assets. If you don't understand the mental edge that cash brings to the table in these times, then I don't know what to tell you. Obviously you have to be diversified of course, not saying every single penny has to be in cash.


Back in the 70s&80s there was no where near the levels of credit card debit there is today. And society here and in Europe was more stable and less "diversified".
My first step tp get ready is getting out of the cities...
Posted by texas tortilla
houston
Member since Dec 2015
4047 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 1:01 pm to
LINK from zerohedge. cnbc rick santelli says 10 year could go to 13%.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
57977 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

OccamsStubble


quote:

quote:It’s crazy that we are essentially borrowing from China to pay for Ukraine, I mean it’s been crazy for a while, but there is no longer a point of reference, we are way off the path. Don't fall for that hype. The


Do you want to try again?
Posted by RollTide4Ever
Nashville
Member since Nov 2006
19654 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 2:34 pm to
He also place some of the blame on Trump.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
57977 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

cnbc rick santelli says 10 year could go to 13%.


If the 10-year breaks 10% the stock market is going to drop like a rock as more and more investors are going to turn there instead of staying on the market's roller coaster.
Posted by Warfox
B.R. Native (now in MA)
Member since Apr 2017
3767 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 2:37 pm to
quote:

There is no soft landing. I said this months ago as has anyone with a brain. The longer they try for the soft landing, the more the middle class gets eaten alive.


What do you recommend people put their money in to protect it?
Posted by lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
11767 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 2:39 pm to
Peter Schiff has predicted 23 of the last 4 Recessions.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
53863 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 2:44 pm to
Peter Navarro would agree with Schiff. Navarro was in rare form this morning on War Room talking about the inevitable and impending financial collapse of the US.
Posted by auwaterfowler
Alabama
Member since Jan 2020
2866 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 5:43 pm to
Is this why there has been unprecedented institutional buying of houses and property the last few years??? Seems that is the safest place to put money these days.
Posted by OU Guy
Member since Feb 2022
24823 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 8:16 pm to
2027 projections

Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
53863 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 8:26 pm to
quote:

There is no soft landing.


Oh I agree... The economy has been falsely held together for too long...

quote:
The longer they try for the soft landing, the more the middle class gets eaten alive.


Well, they are trying for a softer landing for themselves and really don't care if the middle class is used to cushion their soft landing...



All the Big Dawgs have already positioned themselves, they are gonna make more on the collapse than on a booming US economy.
Posted by BuckyCheese
Member since Jan 2015
57778 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 8:47 pm to
quote:

10-Year Treasury yields closed just below 4.7%


Over 4.8% right now.

eta-For those that don't know, that big green swath means it's on a pretty big uptrend.

This post was edited on 10/3/23 at 9:12 pm
Posted by I20goon
about 7mi down a dirt road
Member since Aug 2013
19375 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 9:03 pm to
It's called backing yourself into a corner....

Can't fight cause the Fed will be caught in a pincers.

Can't flee because of the politicians addiction to spending with no long term investment goals.
Posted by BuckyCheese
Member since Jan 2015
57778 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 9:15 pm to
quote:

Can't flee because of the politicians addiction to spending with no long term investment goals.



Being in Congress is so profitable for them they'll spend whatever just to keep their seats. No one will make the tough decisions as they know they won't have to deal with the consequences.
Posted by BuckyCheese
Member since Jan 2015
57778 posts
Posted on 10/4/23 at 12:22 am to
4.84% as of 12:21am

Off a high of 4.85%. Will likely be over 5% by the end of the week.
Posted by Burt Orangello
DFW
Member since Sep 2023
638 posts
Posted on 10/4/23 at 12:45 am to
Yep. It’s not inflation just getting a little out in front of an expanding economy. It’s a wholesale increase in the money supply irrespective of GDP and supply side issues creating a massive imbalance.

We are fricked because there isn’t a way to fix it without wrecking a lot of stuff.
Posted by Burt Orangello
DFW
Member since Sep 2023
638 posts
Posted on 10/4/23 at 1:09 am to
Everything, no matter how complex in its details, boils down to supply and demand … scarcity … not everyone can have everything.

“Printing money” creates an increase in money supply, which increases demand. Low interest rates, etc. equal more available money, which increases demand. (Which is why raising rates is contractionary monetary policy.)

We ALSO have issues on the output/supply side due to supply chain problems and a host of other things (including the increasing cost of capital).

A simplified example:

Everyone is given $100 to buy eggs, but the chickens are broken and aren’t laying many.

The $100 to everyone would already drive up demand (and therefore prices) for eggs. Normally, producers would respond to the higher prices by getting more eggs on the market (to capture those prices), resulting in same demand but more supply (and prices come down).

Now factor in $100 to everyone to buy eggs AND there’s a REDUCTION in egg supply. Big problem.

You enact contractionary monetary policy to check the money supply/demand side, but now the egg supplier can’t afford to borrow money to buy new/better/more chickens.

That’s stagflation in a nutshell. Inflation and output moving in opposite directions. Whatever you do to help/check one side sends the other into a spiral.

The only way out is to break everything. (Volcker the economy…)
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 1:26 am
Posted by BeepNode
Lafayette
Member since Feb 2014
10005 posts
Posted on 10/4/23 at 1:10 am to
First of all what he described isn't a crash. He's using that term for attention.

Secondly, he's historically been wrong a lot.
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