re: Oxford Economic:Biden Will Wallop Trump

Unfortunately I think this is accurate. Before Covid, Trump was in for a rough re-election. He would have had an easier tune with Sanders. Biden will win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania because the blue collars Democrats will vote for Biden. Arizona, North Carolina and Florida have bad demographics for the GOP and the GOP in those states hate Trump. Also, Trump was screwed by Fauci and others into shutting down the economy. This will go down as an absolutely fatal error. There’s no way he can survive 20 million plus unemployment. Unemployment will not go down enough by Election Day to save him. Trump will be the last Republican President.

The model was Biden winning Missouri and Iowa which is fricking laughable and deserves no attention.

He isn't winning NC either.

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Biden won't even be the nominee by election day

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No doubt whatsoever ....

But even if Biden were their nominee .... is there anyone - and I mean anyone - that actually puts credibility in these political polls?

If so, please identify yourself .....

This is a perfect example of the “dumb smart people” problem. You’ve got these forecasters with exceptionally high level mathematical skills capable of making exceptionally complex forecasting models. And because their models are as complex as possible, they default to the position that they must be as accurate a possible. Always. Even to the point of overriding basic intuition. And so, when a once in a lifetime event like the coronavirus shut down comes along, rather than acknowledging it as a black swan event that the model was simply not built to deal with, they simply default to, “But the model says...”.

Anyone paying an once of attention knows that the economy is not going to be a winning selling point for dem candidates. It was as strong as it’s been in a long time the shut down and it’s clearly the dem side of the isle who most wants the shutdown extended. But these dumb smart people have a model that show bad economic environments were bad for incumbent candidates, so the only response they are capable of formulating is to blindly extrapolate that modeled relationship and assume that the worse economic environment of our lifetimes must mean the worst news for an incumbent president over the same time horizon.

It’s just dumbness. Plain and simple.

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If Biden were to win then this country is truly a lost cause and will eventually collapse under the weight of its own stupidity probably within a generation

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You do realize that democrats are going to win offices again right? President, Governors, Senators, Congressmen. November could be a landslide. They could have all branches and start appointing judges with alacrity. At various periods in the last 100 years they have been in charge and LBJ and FDR make Biden look like Reagan.

Life goes on and not much will change for you or your family.
You might want to get outside more and off the internet.

Leftists are going all out to convince republicans and independents not to vote for Trump. Same tactic from 2016: Trump can’t win so sit home and don’t bother voting for him.

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does anyone know if this Oxford Economics group has any credibility?

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I can tell you from barely reading their assessment that they do not.

This is what happens when mail in votes are allowed

Maybe you should get out of your bubble. The only people blaming Trump for this down turn blame Trump for the sun coming up.

Most people know that no incumbent with a good economy has ever been defeated. I don’t blame the Dems for starting this virus but any objective person with eyes can see them trying to take advantage it.

There are a lot of people that support Trump but keep quiet for fear of backlash. Other have warmed up to Trump because the has done what he said. I want to see eagle ford and Permian Basin people vote for Biden with his promise to ban fracking. Add Ohio ,Pennsylvania, and West Virginia in there too.

The left is big on counting up all Trump’s lies. I hate liars but could care less if he is playing more golf that he said on the campaign trail. It really bothers me when people look into a camera and talk about irrefutable evidence of Russian collusion but testify the was no evidence behind closed doors. I can forgive mistakes, but lying for direct personal gain like the Dems is unforgivable.

I just hope most people won’t sell their votes that Nancy is trying to buy with our grandchildren’s tax money.

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Well that is not wishcasting.

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Would be interesting to know how much the author is putting on the line in Vegas. Would be a great gauge of his / her confidence in their survey...