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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 5/25/26 at 1:59 pm to moontigr
Posted on 5/25/26 at 1:59 pm to moontigr
quote:
From the outset it has seemed that we've been negotiating with the wrong people. "Progress" and a "close deal" are announced, and then the IRGC (the guys who are really in charge) step in and say, "bullshite, we never agreed to that, not happening." It's happened multiple times.
It might be that you are being lied to, ever consider that?
2
Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:03 pm to BayouBengal51
quote:
I still don't know why Israel gave back any of the territory it won during the 6 day war when they wrecked shop
It’s because Israel was completely dependent on international goodwill - mainly the US - and they could not hold onto both.
Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:04 pm to tigervet4
It’s my understanding that the individual commanders of the IRGC units were given authorization, in the event of the ayatollah being killed by an outside force, to launch attacks without any type of approval,
That has been a problem because so many of the top leaders have been killed, we are left negotiating with people the IRGC have not agreed as a suitable leader. Some IRGC units may not recognize and take orders from any leader that would dare to make a deal.
Obviously, Trump knows this and has been giving them time to choose a leader that will have the ear of these commanders. Or at least have the authority to force them to obey orders. A return to bombing them is not necessarily going to help that process.
TLDR Members of the Iranian government are negotiating but may not be in complete control of all the units of the IRGC. Which isn’t very healthy for them if they appear to be too willing to concede to terms of a deal.
That has been a problem because so many of the top leaders have been killed, we are left negotiating with people the IRGC have not agreed as a suitable leader. Some IRGC units may not recognize and take orders from any leader that would dare to make a deal.
Obviously, Trump knows this and has been giving them time to choose a leader that will have the ear of these commanders. Or at least have the authority to force them to obey orders. A return to bombing them is not necessarily going to help that process.
TLDR Members of the Iranian government are negotiating but may not be in complete control of all the units of the IRGC. Which isn’t very healthy for them if they appear to be too willing to concede to terms of a deal.
Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:09 pm to tigervet4
quote:
It might be that you are being lied to, ever consider that?
No doubt about it - by Trump and the IRGC. Both are savvy negotiators, and posturing is an indispensable strategy in these negotiations.
One thing that has become apparent to me over the course of these negotiations is that they are complex - not the broad points but the minutiae that underpins it all. For example: it’s critical to the US that we get a dependable inspection regime that can’t be circumvented. That has to be nailed down before the deal is struck, otherwise forget it; we won’t have it.
Another thing that requires intense negotiations is the many payoffs to small and medium size players on the Iranian side (and who knows, maybe on ours too). These details always ensured that the negotiations would take a long time.
One more thing. I’ve been on the other side of the table from great negotiators, and they always try to re-trade the deal at the last minute. Part of that is giving the illusion that the deal is falling through. Because no matter who you are, and how cool you are, when you think you have a deal you start to plan - the announcement, the celebrations, everything. And when you see that deal slipping away you will give a lot to pull it back in. Great negotiators play on that aspect of human nature.
This post was edited on 5/25/26 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:12 pm to moontigr
quote:
You're incredibly naive if you actually believe that
It’s the truth. Iran was cooperating with the IAEA until Trump pulled the plug and started imposing sanctions. You can not like the deal but Iran was cooperating because of it. I think that’s part of the reason Trump wants the nuclear materials out because otherwise what he’s offering would look very similar to Obama.
Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:16 pm to WestSideTiger
quote:
It’s the truth. Iran was cooperating with the IAEA until Trump pulled the plug and started imposing sanctions
I agree with moontigr. I doubt they were complying.
Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:25 pm to LegendInMyMind
Trump knew the Obama agreement was a joke. Anyone who believes Trump removed IAEA inspectors is an idiot. If IAEA inspectors were truly being allowed in Iran’s nuclear facilities then how could they enrich uranium at such a high percentage. The Obama agreement wasn’t worth the paper it was written upon as far as safeguards from uranium enrichment. Senior administration officials that the concept of truly unfettered inspections anytime, anywhere is only possible if there is a military occupation of a country.
The truth is that Iran stopped implementing the Additional Protocol (AP) to its comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA) and the JCPOA’s additional monitoring arrangements on February 23, 2021. Iran’s actions and its refusal to cooperate with the IAEA across a wide range of monitoring issues causes the IAEA to consistently express doubt about understanding key aspects of Iran’s nuclear activities. Without the AP in place, the IAEA has neither been able to conduct complementary access to any sites and other locations in Iran nor received updated declarations from Iran
The IAEA reports that it has “lost continuity of knowledge in relation to the production and current inventory of centrifuges, rotors and bellows, heavy water and UOC [uranium ore concentrate], which it will not be possible to restore.”
The IAEA concludes that “Iran’s decision to remove all of the Agency’s equipment previously installed in Iran for JCPOA-related surveillance and monitoring activities has also had detrimental implications for the Agency’s ability to provide assurance of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.
Although the IAEA can ascertain the number of centrifuges deployed at Fordow and Natanz, it cannot know how many more Iran has made and stored or deployed at an undeclared site. A risk is that Iran will accumulate a secret stock of advanced centrifuges, deployable in the future at a clandestine enrichment plant, which would only need to house a relatively few advanced centrifuge cascades to enrich Iran’s current stock of 60 percent HEU to WGU. At the least, this situation complicates any future verification effort and contributes to uncertainty about the status of Iran’s nuclear activities and facilities.
The truth is that Iran stopped implementing the Additional Protocol (AP) to its comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA) and the JCPOA’s additional monitoring arrangements on February 23, 2021. Iran’s actions and its refusal to cooperate with the IAEA across a wide range of monitoring issues causes the IAEA to consistently express doubt about understanding key aspects of Iran’s nuclear activities. Without the AP in place, the IAEA has neither been able to conduct complementary access to any sites and other locations in Iran nor received updated declarations from Iran
The IAEA reports that it has “lost continuity of knowledge in relation to the production and current inventory of centrifuges, rotors and bellows, heavy water and UOC [uranium ore concentrate], which it will not be possible to restore.”
The IAEA concludes that “Iran’s decision to remove all of the Agency’s equipment previously installed in Iran for JCPOA-related surveillance and monitoring activities has also had detrimental implications for the Agency’s ability to provide assurance of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.
Although the IAEA can ascertain the number of centrifuges deployed at Fordow and Natanz, it cannot know how many more Iran has made and stored or deployed at an undeclared site. A risk is that Iran will accumulate a secret stock of advanced centrifuges, deployable in the future at a clandestine enrichment plant, which would only need to house a relatively few advanced centrifuge cascades to enrich Iran’s current stock of 60 percent HEU to WGU. At the least, this situation complicates any future verification effort and contributes to uncertainty about the status of Iran’s nuclear activities and facilities.
Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:25 pm to Penrod
From Grok.
quote:
No, Iran did not kick out nuclear inspectors before Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA (the 2015 Iran nuclear deal) in May 2018.
Key Timeline and Facts
• JCPOA implementation (2016): After the deal was reached in 2015 under Obama, it took effect in January 2016 once the IAEA verified Iran had completed initial steps (e.g., reducing its uranium stockpile, centrifuges, and allowing enhanced monitoring). The IAEA conducted regular inspections and repeatedly certified Iran’s compliance with its nuclear commitments under the deal
• Pre-2018 period: IAEA reports confirmed Iran was adhering to the agreement, including access for inspectors. The Trump administration itself issued compliance certifications in 2017 before deciding to withdraw. There were no reports of Iran broadly expelling or kicking out IAEA inspectors during this time.
• Trump’s withdrawal: On May 8, 2018, the US unilaterally exited the JCPOA and began reimposing sanctions. This was not triggered by Iran expelling inspectors—IAEA verification was ongoing and positive at the time.
What Actually Happened with Inspections Iran began incrementally reducing cooperation after the US withdrawal (starting notably in 2019), in response to renewed sanctions and economic pressure. This included limiting some inspector access, but full-scale restrictions and expulsions came much later
• Temporary access limits in 2021 (with IAEA workarounds).
• More significant reductions in cooperation after 2018–2020, tied to undeclared sites investigations
• Major suspensions and inspector withdrawals in 2025, following Israeli and US military strikes on Iranian facilities.
In short, the claim reverses the sequence. Trump’s decision preceded Iran’s major escalations in limiting IAEA access. The deal’s verification regime (including the Additional Protocol) was functioning with inspectors on the ground until after the US exit. Iran’s later actions were cited as responses to the withdrawal and “maximum pressure” campaign.
Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:30 pm to HailToTheChiz
quote:
This would be a bigger wtf if we are actually worried about this
Saudi Arabia is supposedly concerned about potential strikes against them taking place, as muslim pilgrims flock to that ugly arse block of stone in Mecca. Even Iranian Shia 12'vers go to Mecca, so I doubt they would strike at SA at that time. That would just inflame the entire Muslim world against Iran, so SA using it as an excuse is just BS IMO.
SA is trying to cover up any involvement or clean it's hands of any dealings with the IRGC in the past is why they are requesting us to hold off. They need to make sure that when the rocks get turned over in Iran, nothing points to them and the money they have funneled to and from Iran over the decades that the larger world can see.
This post was edited on 5/25/26 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:37 pm to BayouBengal51
Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:38 pm to BayouBengal51
Either more US/Israeli drone strikes or those pesky gas leaks remain unresolved..
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 5/25/26 at 3:38 pm to BayouBengal51
Posted on 5/25/26 at 4:02 pm to BayouBengal51
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Translated from Arabic Explosions in Sirik and Jask, southern Iran
This post was edited on 5/25/26 at 4:03 pm
Posted on 5/25/26 at 4:21 pm to Penrod
quote:
quote:
It’s the truth. Iran was cooperating with the IAEA until Trump pulled the plug and started imposing sanctions
I agree with moontigr. I doubt they were complying.
Part of the obama deal was that we could NEVER inspect certain military sites.......but they were complying
Posted on 5/25/26 at 4:26 pm to TroutGuy
Posted on 5/25/26 at 4:27 pm to TroutGuy
quote:
Translated from Persian #Urgent The government-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that an hour ago, the runway of Bandar Abbas Airport was hit by a missile.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. An attack on a runway feels like a limited, "send a message" type attack.This post was edited on 5/25/26 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 5/25/26 at 4:30 pm to TroutGuy
Posted on 5/25/26 at 4:31 pm to TroutGuy
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
URGENT / CONFIRMED: Bandar Abbas Airport targeted by missile strike
Posted on 5/25/26 at 4:31 pm to TroutGuy
Posted on 5/25/26 at 4:31 pm to hawgfaninc
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