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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

Posted on 6/16/26 at 9:19 pm to
Posted by RelicBatches86
Florida
Member since Nov 2024
1611 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 9:19 pm to
do we think the terms we gave Iran before the War were better or worse?

looks like they benefited from holding out and closing the Strait.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
478418 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 9:24 pm to
The IRGC right now:

Posted by BayouBengal51
Forest Hill, Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
10402 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 9:35 pm to
quote:

Both pledge to reach a final agreement within 60 days, extendable.


If this draft is true, then Iran will drag this out forever. Trump will let them get away with it until the cows come home. That Qatari investment will make sure of that. And we will acquiesce Qatar's bribery for what? Money they will use to undermine our institutions and society just like they have done with all the western nations that have got into bed with them.

Want to know why France and the UK are shite holes overrun with muslim migrants now? Qatari money is why. They and Iran feed this never ending Islamic Jihad against the west. The other muslim nations are in on it too but not at the level Qatar and Iran are. We have climbed into the bed with the enemy and we will act shocked and horrified when they stab us in the back while we sleep.

I pray that draft is not true, otherwise we have only strengthened our adversary 10 times over in the end. Western leaders still can't see the forest through the trees when it comes to Arabs and Islam.
Posted by Chasin The Tiger
Lake Travis, TX
Member since Sep 2012
652 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 9:58 pm to
If we agree to this then Trump will go down as one of the worst presidents in US history.
Posted by northshorebamaman
Mackinac Island
Member since Jul 2009
38393 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 10:11 pm to
quote:

Talk about convenient. Being the party of violent obstructionism is convenient. You initiate the violence. President faces your violence with violence he's a dictator. He moves on to get the job done elsewhere, he's a spectator. Meanwhile, your violent followers try repeatedly to assassinate him and shortcut the process, even before he's elected. You indicted him before he ever started, which leads to strained arguments like this one where you pretend he had choices which would've satisfied your demands and obviated this debate. The problem is that your firmly stated "opinions" aren't opinions at all, they're left wing anti-Trump dogma. It's a cliche at this point, but you can save yourself a lot of time by just typing OMB.
You’re still doing it. To your credit, you're probably too far gone to even be aware of it at this point. Every paragraph is some version of “Trump promised X, failed at X, but failure doesn’t count because the people opposed to X opposed him.”

On Covid, you’ve now reduced Trump from “alpha leader who alone could save America from the swamp” to “poor schmuck had no choice but to do whatever the medical bureaucracy told him.” Fine. Then just say that. But don’t sell me the man as a unique wrecking ball against the establishment and then, the second the establishment wins, tell me he was merely being rational by giving in and obeying them.

Also, nobody said he had to “fire everyone and hire a yes-man.” That’s your fake binary again. There were choices between total surrender to Fauci-world and full crank-show rebellion. Better personnel, clearer messaging, less panic amplification, more skepticism toward indefinite restrictions, refusing to let briefings become Fauci/Birx theater, etc. Trump didn’t just “listen to experts.” He made them the public face of his response, then later wanted credit for opposing the very same bullshite he elevated.

On DOGE and tariffs, “judges blocked him” is not the magic eraser you think it is. If the policy is legally solid, defend it through a coherent legal strategy. If it isn’t, then the announcement was theater. Either way, the pattern remains: big announcement, immediate resistance, blame everyone else, move on.

You keep saying “leftist judges” like that answers the competence question. It doesn’t. Were hostile courts predictable? Yes or no? If yes, why wasn’t the plan built to survive them? If no, why are we pretending this administration has a coherent vision, plan, or path forward about anything?

On ICE, again, you present two choices: either agents fight a street war while outnumbered, or Trump redirects and claims victory elsewhere. Again with the lazy bullshite binary with different lipstick. Federal enforcement has planning, staging, coordination, resources, arrests, prosecutions, public messaging, follow-through, and escalation options short of “bloodbath.” If you can't even fathom any of them I don't know what to tell you.

And “you would have criticized him anyway” is just emotional insurance. It lets you declare every outcome a win. If he pushes and fails, enemies blocked him. If he backs down, he was wise. If he contradicts himself, he was negotiating. If he abandons the promise, it was never realistic and you were stupid for taking him literally. There is no standard there. It’s fandom.

And that makes you a simple fanboy.

The funniest part is you think “OMB” saves you. It doesn’t. “Orange man bad” is what you type when you run out of ways to explain why Orange Man keeps promising things he can’t execute.

So I’ll ask it again:

Was he elected to beat the bureaucracy, courts, media, and hostile local governments?

Or was he elected to explain why they were too powerful to beat?

Because you're still arguing the second one while pretending it proves the first.
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 10:17 pm
Posted by YStar
Member since Mar 2013
20140 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 10:15 pm to
It's incredible that before this "war" Iran had sanctions, didn't know they could control the strait and wasn't seen as the bully of the ME.

With this deal they are unsanctioned, they get fronted an enormous sum of money, they are not the defacto leaders of the ME, they are protected against future incursions from the US (so they will use that money to build their bomb) and they at any time can control Hormuz and impact the world economy.

What an absolute clusterfrick.

All we had to do was have the balls to follow through and actually do those bridges and rhe powerplant to weaken them to the point their people could finally take over.

We cowarded out. Smh
Posted by stormchaser_64
Member since Jun 2020
89 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 10:22 pm to
This is good and I agree with all of it, but i would bet my life that this is entirely AI-written. Way too much “not this but that,” “emotional insurance” is too clever, and the complexity of the dual concluding hypotheticals bow-tied with a “not that but this” has an overwrought elegance to it beyond any chat forum I’ve ever seen.
Posted by tilco
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
14536 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 10:23 pm to
quote:

to the point their people could finally take over.


This was never going to happen
Posted by idlewatcher
Planet Arium
Member since Jan 2012
97566 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 10:33 pm to
quote:

If we agree to this then Trump will go down as one of the worst presidents in US history.


Everything Obama did for Iran will pale in comparison to this disaster
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
478418 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 10:36 pm to
I'm about to go to sleep

I can't wait for the spin when I wake up
Posted by northshorebamaman
Mackinac Island
Member since Jul 2009
38393 posts
Posted on 6/16/26 at 10:50 pm to
quote:


This is good and I agree with all of it, but i would bet my life that this is entirely AI-written. Way too much “not this but that,” “emotional insurance” is too clever, and the complexity of the dual concluding hypotheticals bow-tied with a “not that but this” has an overwrought elegance to it beyond any chat forum I’ve ever seen.
This suspicion is just part of online discourse now. It’s not going away. People are going to accuse each other of using AI whenever a post is “too polished,” “too structured,” “too long,” or just inconvenient to answer.

Address the content or don’t.

I’ve got almost 15 years of posts on this board from before LLMs were a thing, so there’s plenty to compare it to. I’m also a published author, though I haven’t published anything in 15 years. I have an interest in the medium, and I make an effort to write well.

But even that doesn’t really matter anymore. The argument either works or it doesn’t. “AI wrote this” is not a rebuttal.

One danger of LLMs I do not see addressed enough is the ammunition they give to anti-intellectualism. Not because AI makes bad writers look good, though it can. The bigger danger is that it gives lazy readers a ready-made excuse to dismiss good writing as fake.

I am not exceptional at everything. I am not even exceptional at most things. But you are the one treating my writing as exceptional, and from a young age adults noticed my ability to argue, persuade, and put thoughts into words. When I was 15, the leading newspaper in my metro area of 9 million people made me the featured political editorialist for its weekly teen edition, back when those sections were a real thing.

LLMs have made competence suspicious. They have created a culture where careful writing has to explain itself before the argument is even allowed into evidence. And that is a gift to people who already disliked serious argument. They no longer have to call something a “wall of text” or admit they simply do not want to engage.

In short, AI writes competently because it was trained on competent human writing. Competent writing, by itself, is not evidence of AI.

To assume otherwise is to erase thousands of years, and billions of words, written competently by human beings long before anyone had ever heard of a language model.

ETA: And I disagree that “emotional insurance” is too clever. It’s a literal description plus a competent grasp of vocabulary. Though I did note your unusual, for a forum, use of “overwrought elegance.”
This post was edited on 6/17/26 at 12:50 am
Posted by TheBoo
South to Louisiana
Member since Aug 2012
5539 posts
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:43 am to
Can y’all take this to the slam poetry board?
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5486 posts
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:45 am to
quote:

On Covid, you’ve now reduced Trump from “alpha leader who alone could save America from the swamp” to “poor schmuck had no choice but to do whatever the medical bureaucracy told him.” Fine. Then just say that. But don’t sell me the man as a unique wrecking ball against the establishment and then, the second the establishment wins, tell me he was merely being rational by giving in and obeying them.


You assume much more than you understand. I've never claimed that Trump could save us from ourselves. In fact, I'm quite pessimistic that anyone can. It's easier to destroy things than to maintain order, because the forces of entropy work with the destroyers. The establishment is the wrecking ball, including a significant part of Trump's own party. I've also never said Trump failed. That's your diagnosis, or more accurately your dogma. He's accomplished less than I'd hoped, but he's made some things better, when it was possible. And I've said that he's better than the alternative parties, which, unfortunately, are now completely bereft of solutions. Most of them are like you, they never even offer solutions, just "We'll do better than Trump". But when given the opportunity, they do just the opposite.

As for Covid, Trump was perfectly rational, and he made the right decisions. He's not a physician, or a virologist, or an epidemiologist or a researcher. He's a president and every president has to rely on the opinions of others, and even let them take the lead in explaining things when the situation warrants. A rational man will acknowledge that fact; a reckless, overconfident man will not. After reading your strong, vigorous opinions about what Trump and everyone else did wrong, I fear that you fall into the latter category. I suspect you would've plunged ahead against the overwhelming advice of the nation's experts. And you would've been the wrecking ball, because bravado is not a substitute for mental acuity. You're the perennial critic, quick to condemn, slow to understand. We would've ended up with acute political instability on top of our economic instability.


quote:

There were choices between total surrender to Fauci-world and full crank-show rebellion. Better personnel, clearer messaging, less panic amplification, more skepticism toward indefinite restrictions, refusing to let briefings become Fauci/Birx theater, etc. Trump didn’t just “listen to experts.” He made them the public face of his response, then later wanted credit for opposing the very same bullshite he elevated.


You do have the platitudes down though. Run for office. Tell the people you have better choices, and maybe no one will ask you to elaborate. Tell them about your "better personnel, clearer messaging, amplify", etc.,etc. Those are really strong words, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Unfortunately, tales told by idiots won't solve our problems either, with or without the complication of violent opposition.

quote:

And that makes you a simple fanboy.


This is where we are. I support Trump because he tries, and sometimes accomplishes, things I agree with. And he's more rational than the obvious alternatives. I didn't always feel that way but, sort of like Musk says, the other guys have been running full speed the other direction. You oppose Trump because you can do "better than Trump". No details, just vaguely better. I still don't understand why you don't like OMB. It's a perfect three letter summary of every single word you've typed. Maybe BTT would work; "Better Than Trump".
This post was edited on 6/17/26 at 12:58 am
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63593 posts
Posted on 6/17/26 at 12:54 am to
quote:

As for Covid, Trump was perfectly rational, and he made the right decisions. He's not a physician, or a virologist, or an epidemiologist or a researcher. He's a president and every president has to rely on the opinions of others, and let them take the lead in explaining things when the situation warrants.

Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5486 posts
Posted on 6/17/26 at 1:02 am to
And if Trump had fired Fauci, and Birx, and the head of the CDC, etc., then what? Hire RFK in mid crisis, get blamed for every Covid death, impeached and removed from office while the streets of America were burning as our leftist media simultaneously fanned the flames of Covid fear and violence during the summer of love. Or maybe you would've liked that scenario? Are you one of those who think a revolution will solve our problems?

One thing that makes me appreciate Trump is reading the words of his critics and realizing we could've, probably would've, done so much worse.
This post was edited on 6/17/26 at 1:24 am
Posted by northshorebamaman
Mackinac Island
Member since Jul 2009
38393 posts
Posted on 6/17/26 at 1:08 am to
So the defense is that the establishment was too powerful, the experts had to be trusted, the courts were too hostile, the bureaucracy was too entrenched, local officials were too obstructive, and Trump “tries.”

Fine. Then just say that. Your standard is not competence. Your standard is good intentions and a message you like.

Your position is “Trump fails often, exaggerates constantly, hires badly, overpromises, and folds when resistance gets real, but I still prefer him to Democrats,” that is at least coherent, I'll give you that.

And your own post is full of the same vague abstractions you accuse me of using. “He tries.” “He made things better when possible.” “He’s more rational than the alternatives.” “The establishment is the wrecking ball.” Those are not defensible positions. Those are platitudes.

I’m judging him by the promises he made.

You’re judging him by whether he made the right enemies and occasionally tried something you liked.

That’s fandom. You're a fan. And MAGA is a fanbase, not a movement.

In any case, wrong thread for this, so you can have the last word.

Posted by moontigr
Dark Side of the Moon
Member since Nov 2020
7719 posts
Posted on 6/17/26 at 1:23 am to
Who clipped Trump’s nuts? WTF happened to him?
Posted by UptownJoeBrown
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2024
10503 posts
Posted on 6/17/26 at 1:42 am to
I think Trump had to get the price of oil down and the oil flowing. We are approaching tank bottoms all over the world.

I’m not sure what happened with the people not rising up, but it didn’t happen fast enough before oil was getting ready to spike hard.
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