re: New libertarian talking point: “actually, only a minority of Iranians oppose the regime”

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I am seeing many libertarians argue that the protests only reflect urban sentiments and that in rural areas of Iran, the people are very happy and supportive of the regime.

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People need to carefully consider who exactly the power base of the Islamic Republic actually is and how the IRI actually exerts power. In that sense, they are not all that much different from countries like Pakistan and Egypt where the military plays an outsized role in civilian life. In addition, we do have some official estimates for the paramilitary Basij, That group supposedly numbers near 20 million, and its membership is drawn from the cleric and military classes. Even if we don't believe that number, the fact that the Basij do figure prominently in quelling internal unrest speaks to some degree of splintering in the youth, with those who are interested in a career in government possibly more likely to join the Basij.

The Islamic Republic clearly has a power base, and even if the Islamic Republic falls, the Shia clerical class, which has been fighting for power for the last 400 years in Iran, will continue to exist. And that clerical class has some degree of power outside its borders, as they could potentially appeal to Shia men in other nearby countries to pick up arms, as the Iranians used this method in the Syrian Civil War starting in 2014 or so.

I estimate that up to around 25% of the country would have a vested interest in the continuation of the country, which might not sound like a lot, but also the opposition inside the country is mostly disorganized along ideological and ethnic lines.

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What?

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There is this really weird meme developing where they're trying to separate "Persians" from certain concepts. Another example is doing this with Muslims, pretending Iranian Persians haven't been predominantly Muslim for around 1300 years.

Rob gets confused and seems to be trying to do that meme in an even dumber way

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along ideological and ethnic lines.

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Which is why “Iran” as a nation state could be engulfed in a pro-longed civil war. You mentioned that there are Shia outside of Iran’s borders. Well, that dynamic applies to a number of other groups as well.

From an academic standpoint, it will be interesting to see what governmental construct rises from the ashes.

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Which is why “Iran” as a nation state could be engulfed in a pro-longed civil war. You mentioned that there are Ashoka outside of Iran’s borders.

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Ashoka? You mean Shia?

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Well, that dynamic applies to a number of other groups as well.

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The actual difference is that Iran has already mobilized these groups once before, such as the Liwa Zainabiyoun, which was made up of Shia Pakistani's and Shia Afghanis living in Pakistan. There was also Liwa Fatemiyoun, which was made up of Shia Afghanis, mainly from the Hazara ethnic group. There were about 15 groups outside of Iran and Iraq which probably had between 5,000 to 20,000 fighters at their height. This doesn't include the Iraqi PMF groups, which are now part of the Iraqi Army but are also explicitly pro-IRGC. The total number of these forces amounts to 80 or so factions. The PMF's origins actually date back to the insurgency against the US but regardless, you are underrating the actual amount of possible groups the Iranians could have at their disposal. The complicated issue is if this war takes on a religious rather than national character, as the raise d'etre for many of those brigades in Syria and Iraq was specifically to protect Shia shrines. It remains to be seen whether they will actually be mobilized, but that is the major difference as it stands.

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I mean, if you don’t count the opposition being supported by outside nations / entities as “making a difference as well,” then sure.

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Well, this is where it gets somewhat complicated, as you alluded to earlier. For example, there is some anger at the Kurds in Western Iran for 'Kurdifying' areas which might have been historically belonging to another group, which means that there is a national and ethnic divide which prevents parties from working together. One difference between Europe and the Middle East in particular is that many of these groups would have had been organized much earlier if something like The Treaty of Westphalia had occurred in the Middle East. The biggest difference is that Iran has been a relatively stable polity in terms of territory for a long while, and there is plenty of incentive for individual regions to remain in Iran under a new government.

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You act as though only one side can organize and arm (rather quickly I suspect).

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I'm pointing out one side has already organized with some of the brigades in Iraq having some very experienced fighters. That is where I would argue there is immediate concern for American policymakers as long as they can undercut any religious rhetoric and avoiding any religious gaffes. The bombing of an important shrine in Damascus was the raison d'etre for many of the brigades to originally form, and the question is whether the death of the Supreme Leader will cause the same effect. I am somewhat skeptical, as there are other Ayatollahs outside of Iran, with Ayatollah Sistani being the most important.

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Lastly, in case you haven’t noticed, Iran currently has their hands full with some backwater nation-state known as America.

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Well I think the Iranian regime has lost this phase of the war, completely and utterly. That said, they still do have a base of support and it is difficult to imagine any future Iran which on some level does not have the participation of religious Iranians, which are more than one would think but also not so much that they would dominate a future government. I'm envisioning the potential problems between religious and national rhetoric for the new Iranian state. The Shia militias are a major problem, more so than say South Azerbaijani or Baloch separatists.

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Libertarians are just liberals with enough shame to not want to be called such.

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Name policies and positions that are "liberal"? Do you consider the founding fathers "liberal" as well?

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If Trump was assassinated, many people would be dancing in the streets. Does that mean America in general supports this? No.

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About 50% of America

I can understand that sentiment and there is maybe some truth in it. The rural area are typically more religious and bound to their religion. We see it in the states right? Rural America is typically more conservative, God fearing, family oriented. The same can be true in a Iran.

So I think the push is more in the urban areas for change because that is where the more liberal views are condensed. Many of the grandparents and maybe parents can remember what it was like in society pre-revolution where the rural areas maybe saw minimal change.

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crazy4lsu

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Wait are you trying to pretend that prior to 1979 Iran was a thriving Islam enclave?. A Sunni enclave



The Persians celebrated modernity back then. Not a hijab in sight. Just hit full stop. No one is buying that the majority of these people are not fully celebrating this violent, ultra-conservative, Shia govt falling