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re: Nate Gold with updated presidential election forecast.
Posted on 8/30/24 at 9:37 pm to GumboPot
Posted on 8/30/24 at 9:37 pm to GumboPot
If these numbers are even close to accurate, no amount of cheating will help Harris steal a "win".
She will steal a win anyway, but it will be a statistical impossibility and then we can finally let this shite pop off.
I'm past ready.
She will steal a win anyway, but it will be a statistical impossibility and then we can finally let this shite pop off.
I'm past ready.
1
Posted on 8/30/24 at 9:45 pm to GumboPot
We love Nate Silver and polls and forecasts, do’t we folks?
Haha
Haha
Posted on 8/30/24 at 9:58 pm to Mickey Goldmill
They/them sounds scared.
Posted on 8/30/24 at 10:04 pm to GumboPot
It’s time for me to make a Sept trip to WI. A certain famous PT poster (who shall remain nameless) and I went to the ill-fated LSU-WI opener in 2016 and I announced after the “vibe” (a term which, along with “joy” now irks me) I got in the state that Trump had it.
Posted on 8/30/24 at 10:04 pm to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
We love Nate Silver and polls and forecasts, do’t we folks?
Nate Gold when it’s a forecast I like. Nate Bronze when it’s a forecast I don’t like.
This post was edited on 8/30/24 at 10:06 pm
Posted on 8/30/24 at 10:16 pm to GumboPot
Any poll that has Kamala Harris up 10 points in Michigan is bullshite.
This post was edited on 8/30/24 at 10:18 pm
Posted on 8/30/24 at 10:17 pm to GumboPot
God I loathe the coasts
Posted on 8/30/24 at 11:16 pm to GumboPot
Posted on 8/31/24 at 8:18 am to TigerAxeOK
LINK good article on the 4th turning. was the selection of walz a sign that the elites maybe want trump to win so they can blame trump when they crash the markets?
Posted on 8/31/24 at 9:08 am to GumboPot
quote:He was demoted to tin in 2016.
Nate Gold when it’s a forecast I like. Nate Bronze when it’s a forecast I don’t like.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 9:10 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
We love Nate Silver and polls and forecasts, do’t we folks? Haha
Cope cuck!
Posted on 8/31/24 at 9:33 am to McLemore
quote:
It’s time for me to make a Sept trip to WI. A certain famous PT poster (who shall remain nameless) and I went to the ill-fated LSU-WI opener in 2016 and I announced after the “vibe” (a term which, along with “joy” now irks me) I got in the state that Trump had it.
My brother and me went to the LSU game at Lambeau. We said the presence of LSU fans from the south was going to uncuck Wisconsin for November and we were right.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 10:35 am to GumboPot
How does he poll dead voters? Assume they vote blue? Ouija board? Is this forecast based on good data?
Posted on 8/31/24 at 10:44 am to GumboPot
The ho aint winning Michigan by 10 in any realistic election.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 10:46 am to GumboPot
In reality, Trump has never been trailing. He won in 2020 and will absolutely win in 2024. The only way he can "lose" is through massive cheating that only morons can't recognize.
This post was edited on 8/31/24 at 10:47 am
Posted on 8/31/24 at 10:47 am to Bamatab
quote:
I'm assuming that his forecasts are where his model shows where the election will be come election day based on some formula that includes how the polls are trending, based on historical trends, and some other factors.
He weights for "house bias," the convention bump and few other factors.
And yes, he is using other's polls as input in his model.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 12:02 pm to BigJim
Nate Orange 
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