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Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:35 pm to oldskule
One of our local state legislators has been appointed as chair of an election oversight committee to address the issues in Georgia from the 2020 election.
This level of analysis, county by county, should be able to provide some evidence. I'm working on a county by county correlation analysis between mail-in ballot trends and overall trends. Basically, how many MAGA counties had major blue swings in their mail-in votes.
My county is MAGA AF and our mail-in ballots still went 80% democrat. I do not believe that for a second.
It sucks that we have these two candidates in Georgia for now, but hopefully we can get some granular analyses like these to the people that matter and show where it doesn't add up at the county level. It'll be hard for them to ignore it at the local level.
This level of analysis, county by county, should be able to provide some evidence. I'm working on a county by county correlation analysis between mail-in ballot trends and overall trends. Basically, how many MAGA counties had major blue swings in their mail-in votes.
My county is MAGA AF and our mail-in ballots still went 80% democrat. I do not believe that for a second.
It sucks that we have these two candidates in Georgia for now, but hopefully we can get some granular analyses like these to the people that matter and show where it doesn't add up at the county level. It'll be hard for them to ignore it at the local level.
quote:
BIDEN:
81,000,000 votes (supposedly)
477 counties carried
TRUMP:
75,000,000 votes
2,497 counties carried
For comparison (2008)
OBAMA:
69,000,000 votes
873 counties carried
I am not Albert Einstein, but that shite don't add up!
TRUMP carried 84% of all counties in the USA, and lost.
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:36 pm to DevilDogTiger
quote:
Look what the odds were around 10:00pm election night. Biden’s win was a statistical miracle
Source: Odds Shark
ETA:
9:00 ET: Biden -135 (57% implied win probability)
10:00 ET: Biden -115 (53% implied)
11:00 ET: Biden +210 (32% implied)
12:00 ET: Biden +170 (37% implied)
01:00 ET: Biden +130 (43% implied)
02:00 ET: Biden +150 (40% implied)
For reference, Trump was +550 at one point during election night in 2016.
This post was edited on 1/21/21 at 8:57 pm
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:38 pm to lostinbr
It's like Biden had Don King on payroll...
quote:
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:41 pm to TerryDawg03
quote:
It's like Biden had Don King on payroll.
Yes sir! There are so many indicators that you cannot ignore them. Thanks for the info on Georgia and good luck.
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:42 pm to TerryDawg03
quote:
One of our local state legislators has been appointed as chair of an election oversight committee to address the issues in Georgia from the 2020 election.
Amongst other things they, as well as most other states I'm sure, need to revise the poll observer law/rule to add specific distance up to an exact point the observers are able to get into better viewing distances of the nitty gritty action. Seems as if currently it only provides that the observer be allowed in the same "room" but as written now they can put you a hundred or two feet away where you can't keenly observe a damn thing. They set up on one end of a rather large building, and put the observer on the far opposite end.
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:43 pm to lostinbr
quote:
So those Biden counties account for 60% of the US population, yet Biden only won 51.3% of the popular vote.
I’m supposed to believe Biden got 75-85% of the urban vote?
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:47 pm to oldskule
quote:
6 crooked swing states and there you have it....election corruption at its finest.
It actually was 6 crooked counties in those swing states. That was the plan, and that is what they did. I heard a guy explain it shortly after the election, and he had done his homework, and had facts, quotes from Dem operatives, and other publicly available evidence to back up his claims. Concentrated on the 6 largest swing state counties in known corrupt areas which influenced enough electoral votes to flip the election.
Anyone who says this election wasn't rigged is a damn fool, or a damn liar.
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:49 pm to Bass Tiger
quote:
I’m supposed to believe Biden got 75-85% of the urban vote?
Only if you believe that he won less than 16% of the rural vote.
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:49 pm to oldskule
quote:
TRUMP carried 84% of all counties in the USA, and lost.
McCain carried a very healthy majority of counties as well and got blown out
Some counties are much smaller than others
You don't need to be Einstein to know that
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:52 pm to TerryDawg03
quote:
It's like Biden had Don King on payroll...
I find it odd that on a sports-based forum people make arguments in a way that makes them appear not to understand odds making. Outside of the initial line books don't adjust odds based on what they think the outcome will be but what actual people betting money think. The book adjusts odds to balance the wagers. What you see in that graph is the dumb money that poured in when it looked like Trump might well win. They bet on the red wave, not the red mirage.
A lot of these discussions aren't germane to the OP since they have zero to do with the popular vote.
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:52 pm to oldskule
quote:
BIDEN:
81,000,000 votes (supposedly)
477 counties carried
TRUMP:
75,000,000 votes
2,497 counties carried
For comparison (2008)
OBAMA:
69,000,000 votes
873 counties carried
Yeah yeah but where is your evidence? Lol
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:55 pm to Wednesday
quote:
I loathed Obama - but can admit he was at least popular.
There was excitement about Obama and I understand how he won. Biden had nothing going for him, except the media.
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:20 pm to lostinbr
Sure he did. He won a greater proportion of the “vote” (with no fraud at all in mail in voting bc that’s never been demonstrated with mail in votes) in populated counties than Obama, but won fewer number of counties than Obama. That’s completely believable
This post was edited on 1/21/21 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:28 pm to Wednesday
Has anyone brought up the impossible adjudication rate in swing states yet? Asking for a friend
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:32 pm to Wednesday
quote:
Sure he did. He won a greater proportion of the “vote” (with no fraud at all in mail in voting bc that’s never been demonstrated with mail in votes) in populated counties than Obama, but won fewer number of counties than Obama. That’s completely believable
I expected you to take a closer look than a 30,000 ft view. How does one negate Biden outperforming Hillary/Obama in most of the deep-red counties in red states. What unbelievable force was at work in those?
Again I am just discussing the OPs contentions about the popular vote, the EV vote requires a much more granular discussion.
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:48 pm to DevilDogTiger
quote:
Those billion dollar casinos and books weren’t built by people that get it wrong very often. Look what the odds were around 10:00pm election night. Biden’s win was a statistical miracle
Vegas got it totally wrong in 2016.
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:54 pm to oldskule
quote:
I am not Albert Einstein, but that shite don't add up!
Every single person in the USA (and the world) knows what happened. The problem is that a large, large portion of Americans (ALL dims and some reps) are completely cool with it... THATS THE MUCH BIGGER PROBLEM HERE. Most of the US are immoral reprobates.
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:56 pm to oldskule
I'm a bit of math nerd so I did what I do about 230 AM election morning. Based on the state of Wisconsin's population, the number of counted votes, and tally for Trump and Biden at that point time, I could reasonably conclude that it was nearly mathematically impossible for Biden to win the state.
Wake up, see the numbers after a "dump" and I'm thinking WTF just happened because it was a highly material statistical anomaly.
Wake up, see the numbers after a "dump" and I'm thinking WTF just happened because it was a highly material statistical anomaly.
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