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Started By
Message
Mark Halperin - R overperforming in early vote makes it look like DJT will win
Posted on 10/22/24 at 11:58 am
Posted on 10/22/24 at 11:58 am
I find this interesting. I am also not enough of a math nerd for me to understand the statistics, so I need a little spelling out for me. We probably need some kind of sticky where we monitor this daily like Halperin says - but you Baws are going to have to be good at giving Cliffs on what it all means. At 30,000 feet, I do understand that MAGA is building an early foundation, and while Ds may be 'winning' some precincts with more of them showing up early - but they are statistically less likely to show up on election day.
PS I love voting on election day, and nobody will still my joy. I feel so patriotic being there with my neighbors. So based on Halperin's logic, I'm glad that I'm able to show up with the dependable finishing shot at the end.
quote:
'If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, we will almost certainly know BEFORE Election Day who's going to win. If these numbers hold up, we'll know that Trump is going to be president.'
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. PS I love voting on election day, and nobody will still my joy. I feel so patriotic being there with my neighbors. So based on Halperin's logic, I'm glad that I'm able to show up with the dependable finishing shot at the end.
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 12:07 pm
14
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:00 pm to Wednesday
quote:
I am also not enough of a math nerd
quote:or English nerd.... ammiright
and nobody will still my joy.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:01 pm to SuperSaint
How upset are you that cameluh is doing so badly
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:02 pm to Wednesday
One thing that’s weird to me is the insane gaslighting being done by legacy media to show polls that Kamala is tied or ahead on.
I think it’s largely due to having to milk television ratings.
But then some days I wake up feeling like Alex Jones and think it’s the deep state priming folks to not be surprised for a record turnout for Kamala (somehow) - then you have Liz Cheney say “millions of republicans will privately vote for Harris.”
I think it’s largely due to having to milk television ratings.
But then some days I wake up feeling like Alex Jones and think it’s the deep state priming folks to not be surprised for a record turnout for Kamala (somehow) - then you have Liz Cheney say “millions of republicans will privately vote for Harris.”
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:02 pm to Wednesday
He's going to win. It's just about how much at this point.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:03 pm to Wednesday
Agreed, however early voting with the lib counterparts does alleviate the Election Day bs they pull, like shutting down polls in AZ, but you’re right, one vote is one vote.
I used my mail in ballot for reference and early voted yesterday. And I will admit, I was considering mailing the mail in closer to election. I figured they installed Biden and let a Kenyon run the country, what’s a second vote? But alas my conscience. But I did do my duty Before God
I used my mail in ballot for reference and early voted yesterday. And I will admit, I was considering mailing the mail in closer to election. I figured they installed Biden and let a Kenyon run the country, what’s a second vote? But alas my conscience. But I did do my duty Before God
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:03 pm to Wednesday
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:03 pm to SuperSaint
quote:
or English nerd.... ammiright
LOL - pretty much an English nerd but spellcheck doesn't catch "still."
In a poetic sense, joy can be stilled, however. It is an excellent play on words for someone being a wet blanket on the ebullience exhibited when someone steals your joy.
So, we both win. English Math.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:06 pm to Wednesday
quote:
I love voting on election day, and nobody will still my joy. I feel so patriotic being there with my neighbors
I voted early and felt the same as I do on election day. I just don't have to worry about "glitches" on election day.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:06 pm to foosball
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:08 pm to SuperSaint
quote:
or English nerd.... ammiright
I “seen” what you did there!!
He is not a nerd at all methinks!
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:13 pm to Wednesday
Be Wary: if this is repeated often by multiple persons/entities now that early voting has started almost everywhere it may be a coordinated attempt to get Trump voters to stay home.
Right now the volume is so low it isn't that. But if becomes the left's play of the week then have to be cognizant of that. The timing is indeed impeccable.
Right now the volume is so low it isn't that. But if becomes the left's play of the week then have to be cognizant of that. The timing is indeed impeccable.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:13 pm to Wednesday
I want to believe!!!
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:13 pm to Wednesday
Some simple statistics
Right now, the Polymarket chances of Trump winning in the battleground states are:
Pennsylvania: 57%
Wisconsin: 53%
Michigan: 53%
Nevada: 61%
Georgia: 68%
Arizona: 71%
You can almost throw out Nevada, because with these states, its meaningless.
Trump wins with Arizona, Georgia and any of PA, WI or MI.
0.71*0.68*0.57(using PA because its the highest)= 27.5% index
Kamala's best chance is sweeping the Rust Belt
0.43*0.47*0.47= 9.5% index
Add 27.5 and 9.5 together and you get 37
27.5/37=74.3% statistical chance that Trump wins by carrying AZ-GA-PA.
which leaves a 25.7% best chance for Kamala.
Obviously there are other possible combos which drives Trump down and Kamala up, but singling out the most likely of scenarios, Trump is looking at a 74% chance of victory. That is cause for significant panic on the Dem side.
Now, are you surprised when a .257 hitter steps up to the plate and singles through the middle? Not at all.
Flip a coin twice and land on heads twice? That's a 25% chance as well.
Drawing a random card from a 52 card deck and getting something in the suit of clubs? Big deal.
How about a 75% free throw shooter missing a free throw? You don't even blink.
Even with all this great data, Kamala has slightly better than a 1 in 4 chance of winning. Just with the data and no influence of cheating.
That's why Trump can't sit on his hands. Run through the finish line.
Right now, the Polymarket chances of Trump winning in the battleground states are:
Pennsylvania: 57%
Wisconsin: 53%
Michigan: 53%
Nevada: 61%
Georgia: 68%
Arizona: 71%
You can almost throw out Nevada, because with these states, its meaningless.
Trump wins with Arizona, Georgia and any of PA, WI or MI.
0.71*0.68*0.57(using PA because its the highest)= 27.5% index
Kamala's best chance is sweeping the Rust Belt
0.43*0.47*0.47= 9.5% index
Add 27.5 and 9.5 together and you get 37
27.5/37=74.3% statistical chance that Trump wins by carrying AZ-GA-PA.
which leaves a 25.7% best chance for Kamala.
Obviously there are other possible combos which drives Trump down and Kamala up, but singling out the most likely of scenarios, Trump is looking at a 74% chance of victory. That is cause for significant panic on the Dem side.
Now, are you surprised when a .257 hitter steps up to the plate and singles through the middle? Not at all.
Flip a coin twice and land on heads twice? That's a 25% chance as well.
Drawing a random card from a 52 card deck and getting something in the suit of clubs? Big deal.
How about a 75% free throw shooter missing a free throw? You don't even blink.
Even with all this great data, Kamala has slightly better than a 1 in 4 chance of winning. Just with the data and no influence of cheating.
That's why Trump can't sit on his hands. Run through the finish line.
This post was edited on 10/22/24 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:16 pm to Wednesday
All the historical metrics that can indicate who will win a presidential campaign are in favor of Trump and the Republicans
First the steal in 2020.... None of you are taking my wager on the band bet yet
Covid-The economic/cultural effect
I'm not saying it was Trump's fault but he was president and the way that low-intelligence voters are affected by things like a pandemic or an economy or a natural disaster they blame whoever they think is in charge
Covid -The mechanics of voting/elections
The increase in usage of the ballot by mail makes is easier to commit fraud
The drive in voting made voting itself considerably easier for the low-motivated, who Would tend to vote Democrat which meant the mechanics of the election made it easier for Democrat voters to vote legitimately plus because of the fears of covid they were motivated
and the two thousand dollars stimulus checks had been spent
This time around the Republicans are better prepared for what is coming that being the fraud element a lot of that the mechanics of that have already been either done away with or are being closely watched which then the low level bureaucrats that would handle a lot of the hands on manipulation may not be as motivated
The metrics that usually decide a second issue the border favoring Trump
The metrics that usually decide an election like the economy are favoring the challenger Trump
the second issue the border also favors Trump
Harris is perhaps the worst candidate ever in American history
Trump is doing a much better job this time around of highlighting his likable traits and hiding the unfavorable traits
With that as a backdrop people who watch elections can start to predict how an election is going to go based on who is voting and how like-minded voters tend to vote and that creates a trend
math is an absolute
numbers can be verified and validated
First the steal in 2020.... None of you are taking my wager on the band bet yet
Covid-The economic/cultural effect
I'm not saying it was Trump's fault but he was president and the way that low-intelligence voters are affected by things like a pandemic or an economy or a natural disaster they blame whoever they think is in charge
Covid -The mechanics of voting/elections
The increase in usage of the ballot by mail makes is easier to commit fraud
The drive in voting made voting itself considerably easier for the low-motivated, who Would tend to vote Democrat which meant the mechanics of the election made it easier for Democrat voters to vote legitimately plus because of the fears of covid they were motivated
and the two thousand dollars stimulus checks had been spent
This time around the Republicans are better prepared for what is coming that being the fraud element a lot of that the mechanics of that have already been either done away with or are being closely watched which then the low level bureaucrats that would handle a lot of the hands on manipulation may not be as motivated
The metrics that usually decide a second issue the border favoring Trump
The metrics that usually decide an election like the economy are favoring the challenger Trump
the second issue the border also favors Trump
Harris is perhaps the worst candidate ever in American history
Trump is doing a much better job this time around of highlighting his likable traits and hiding the unfavorable traits
With that as a backdrop people who watch elections can start to predict how an election is going to go based on who is voting and how like-minded voters tend to vote and that creates a trend
math is an absolute
numbers can be verified and validated
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:16 pm to Wednesday
quote:
'If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, we will almost certainly know BEFORE Election Day who's going to win. If these numbers hold up, we'll know that Trump is going to be president.'
LOL, as if the people and machines that actually count the votes aren't going to make "corrections" on 11/06 at 2AM.
When everyone is convinced that Trump will win, and then the system declares Harris the winner*, people who didn't see it coming since the 2020 steal are going to be very confused.
They're not going to allow Trump back in the White House, period. They've already gone so far as to attempt to assassinate him twice and then they've only doubled down on their rhetoric, after charging and convicting him of preposterous and bogus crimes. Now, the EU is openly interfering in our election with vehement support from the Biden/Harris administration. They're going to steal it.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:19 pm to LSUminati
quote:
One thing that’s weird to me is the insane gaslighting being done by legacy media to show polls that Kamala is tied or ahead on.
quote:
I think it’s largely due to having to milk television ratings.
They are trying to make D’s believe she is still in it. They already have an enthusiasm gap.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:25 pm to Wednesday
Halperin is still a beta pussy
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:26 pm to Wednesday
Do not take this for granted. It is going to be close in the WI, VA, MI, AZ, etc.
Are the cheats taking the pulse of early voting and getting the machine ready and get an idea of how much they will need to do?
Is there any counting that goes on pre- election day? I wouldn't think that would be legal.
I'm not getting over-confident with this. These last 2 cycles it's been very few votes that swing the states one way or the other.
Are the cheats taking the pulse of early voting and getting the machine ready and get an idea of how much they will need to do?
Is there any counting that goes on pre- election day? I wouldn't think that would be legal.
I'm not getting over-confident with this. These last 2 cycles it's been very few votes that swing the states one way or the other.
Posted on 10/22/24 at 12:28 pm to Wednesday
quote:
I'm glad that I'm able to show up with the dependable finishing shot at the end.
We'll all blow our load that day.
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