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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/16/26 at 10:04 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 8/16/26 at 10:04 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The more I think about the Wildberries situation, the more skeptical I am that they can pretend to stay in business after this— no matter how much money they get from the Russian government. All three of their Moscow warehouses have now been completely destroyed. If WB can't deliver in Moscow, how can it be a functioning service??
Disruption of cash flow is as, if not more, devastating.
0
Posted on 8/16/26 at 10:23 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 8/16/26 at 10:56 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
So the real endgame here is not, by itself, trying to put WB out of business. Rather, it's to escalate the already high inflationary pressure on the Russian economy, which then forces the central bank to raise interest rates to try to keep the inflation under control
Their high casualty rate is also inherently deflationary. Can Ukraine kill wildberries faster than Russia can kill its own people?
Also FYI Gemini is pretty much a toy compared to other models. I was using it pretty heavily for a while because of Google integration but it's just not good
This post was edited on 8/16/26 at 10:58 am
Posted on 8/16/26 at 12:06 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Their high casualty rate is also inherently deflationary.
Au contraire. The casualty rate requires the recruitment of 30,000 soldiers every month, which leaves Russian industry increasingly desperate to find workers, which leads to wage inflation. Russia's unemployment rate is something like 2.2%.
Posted on 8/16/26 at 12:46 pm to texag7
quote:
quote:
Never mind that Ukraine produces thousands per year at $300k each. And we make 50 Tomahawks a year at $3 million apiece.
Why do you think that is?
Tomahawks are very sophisticated and work-intensive to manufacture... they are not cranked out on an assembly line, really... they are essentially handmade.
Now, why were they designed that way, and why was the project approved if that was the case/cost?
Part of it is our beloved military-industrial complex and its partners in the Pentagon and Congress, the latter of whom are counting on executive jobs in that private sector when they leave the military/government.
Part of it is a blind spot (which should've been awakened after Vietnam, but certainly after 9/11) to asymmetrical warfare... which is ironic since the United States employed asymmetrical warfare to win its independence from Great Britain. The expectation was that Patriots would be intercepting missiles that cost 10x+ more per unit... not much cheaper Shahed-type drones. The strategy of overwhelming air defense with cheap drones so that a couple of ballistic missiles can slip through and do maximum damage wasn't considered when the platforms were designed. And our defense industry is still kind of going "uh...." while Ukraine had to come up with something fast, which could be manufactured quickly and was cost-effective, or they would be screwed. Innovation through necessity versus designing things based on guesses of how things might be used.
Edited to add: I read someone's opinion that the reason Trump did an about face on licensing Patriot manufacturing to Ukraine was the fear by the stateside manufacturer that they would make them for much less money.
This post was edited on 8/16/26 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 8/16/26 at 12:49 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
quote:
Their high casualty rate is also inherently deflationary.
Au contraire. The casualty rate requires the recruitment of 30,000 soldiers every month, which leaves Russian industry increasingly desperate to find workers, which leads to wage inflation. Russia's unemployment rate is something like 2.2%.
and I saw that Russia is having a problem luring foreign workers, since they just grabbed those workers and sent them to the front as troops in the very recent past...
Posted on 8/16/26 at 12:57 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Ok, here's an officer you'll fight for.
Who would downvote this?
Posted on 8/16/26 at 1:03 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Au contraire. The casualty rate requires the recruitment of 30,000 soldiers every month, which leaves Russian industry increasingly desperate to find workers, which leads to wage inflation. Russia's unemployment rate is something like 2.2%.
Military recruitment pulling people out of the workforce is inflationary, absolutely. Those people not actually coming back is deflationary more broadly because you remove someone from the labor force and you remove a consumer. It's pretty much the same logic used when arguing deportations will help the economy, just far more morbid.
Russia's expanding defense industry is also a big driver (comparable if not larger than recruitment is) for wage inflation because it is desperate for workers, and those jobs would often be high paying even in peace time.
Posted on 8/16/26 at 2:39 pm to VolSquatch
Today, the Ukrainian defense ministry claimed that July was the deadliest month ever for Russian soldiers, with 42,860 ****** [Edit: should say "casualties"].
Obviously, this is from a highly biased source, but I think the circumstantial evidence does indicate that Russian casualties have been trending higher.
Obviously, this is from a highly biased source, but I think the circumstantial evidence does indicate that Russian casualties have been trending higher.
This post was edited on 8/16/26 at 3:00 pm
Posted on 8/16/26 at 2:49 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Today, the Ukrainian defense ministry claimed that July was the deadliest month ever for Russian soldiers, with 42,860 killed. Obviously, this is from a highly biased source, but I think the circumstantial evidence does indicate that Russian casualties have been trending higher.
The push by the higher ups in Russia to take cities in the Fortress Belt would lead to more casualties.
Posted on 8/16/26 at 6:10 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Their high casualty rate is also inherently deflationary. Can Ukraine kill wildberries faster than Russia can kill its own people?
Wildberries is part of Russian military supply chain. :
Posted on 8/16/26 at 10:15 pm to Lee B
quote:
Now, why were they designed that way, and why was the project approved if that was the case/cost?
Tomahawks used a specially designed risk chip that made terrain mapping navigation possible in the 1980's. Terrain mapping is combination of motion tracking and image recognition. That was beyond state of the art in 1983.
Today, a cell phone cpu can do that and much more because current cpu's are a thousands of times faster and more powerful than anything made in the early 1980's. Vastly cheaper too.
In 1980, my refrigerator sized graphics machine had one 25 megahertz processor, needed 240 volts and had 64 muffin fans to keep it cool in a chilled computer environment. A Tomahawk was beyond state of the art at that time.
Posted on 8/16/26 at 10:46 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
In 1980, my refrigerator sized graphics machine had one 25 megahertz processor, needed 240 volts and had 64 muffin fans to keep it cool in a chilled computer environment. A Tomahawk was beyond state of the art at that time.
Our Houston office got a deal on office space in late 1980s Greenway Plaza area of Houston. A seismic company had just shutdown where you could see the Cray behind glass from the 12th floor lobby across from our offices. It was removed within a few months. Major chemical companies were wowed that we had networked our 286s to a 286 file server with a 20 mb hard drive
MIC pretty much built Silicon Valley back then. The manufacturing processes had a lot of contribution from petrochemical companies after they developed new high purity chemicals with no market for them. I learned this while liquidating a Dow Chemical subsidiary which missed getting into a market by a month.
Posted on 8/17/26 at 12:00 am to CitizenK
Drones drones drones, not as effective as social media makes them out to be but for Russian military ineptitude.
Posted on 8/17/26 at 12:50 am to CitizenK
Moscow Oblast.
quote:
A large fire broke out at the "Severnoe Domodedovo" production and logistics complex. The head of the district confirmed that the warehouses, covering an area of 56,000 square meters, have been completely destroyed.
According to reports, this warehouse was intended for pharmaceuticals and related products.
The most interesting client is NC Logistic. This is a large, specialized 3PL operator in the pharmaceutical industry, with its main warehouse and office located in "Severnoe Domodedovo."
The company officially deals with the storage and processing of pharmaceuticals, vaccines, immunobiological products, medical devices, laboratory reagents, and diagnostic equipment.
Are we expecting kilometer-long queues at pharmacies?
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/17/26 at 1:06 am to Coeur du Tigre
More optics in Moscow this morning.
No gasoline available, only diesel.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. No gasoline available, only diesel.
This post was edited on 8/17/26 at 1:09 am
Posted on 8/17/26 at 1:06 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/17/26 at 1:24 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Romania just had to scramble a Spanish NATO F-18 to splash another Russian drone that wandered in from Moldova. Fourth one this year. Each interception burns through missiles that cost hundreds of thousands while Moscow keeps testing the perimeter for free.
This is concrete hybrid warfare. deliberate, repeated violation of NATO airspace by a regime that respects nothing except force. Europe keeps discovering the hard way that only sustained pressure on the source stops the probes. Arm Ukraine properly, push their aviation back, and these expensive defensive scrambles become unnecessary. The bill for hesitation keeps landing on frontline states.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/17/26 at 5:20 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
[Night before last] Kamensky Combine Hit On the night of August 16, 2026, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Kamensky Combine in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast, Russia.
The military-industrial facility produces solid rocket propellant for the Uragan, Smerch, and Tornado-S multiple launch rocket systems, as well as for a number of missile and aviation systems. Its products are directly used to support the Russian military.
Given the importance of the facility, it was heavily protected: nearly all key workshops were covered with anti-drone netting and surrounded by earthen berms.
Ukrainian forces penetrated several layers of air defense — from Pantsir systems to S-300s — and carried out at least five strikes on different workshops across the plant.
Several air-defense vehicles were also hit. The extent of the damage is still being assessed. Signs of a fire were identified at the position of one SAM system, likely a Pantsir-S1.
Signs of fire were also identified at the positions of the multifunctional illumination and guidance radars belonging to an S-300/400 air-defense system.
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This post was edited on 8/17/26 at 5:24 am
Posted on 8/17/26 at 5:28 am to Coeur du Tigre
Here's the next target -
quote:
Russia has built 10 drone bases with at least 59 new launch rails along its borders with Ukraine and Belarus, according to a Telegraph investigation using leaked documents and satellite imagery. Around 20 extended rails appear capable of launching Russia’s latest long-range attack drones, potentially putting Warsaw within range. One site has enough storage for more than 1,000 drones, while additional launch rails are still being built. Seven of the 10 sites have recently been used against Kyiv.
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