re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Ok, I'll ask the question on everyone's mind - Why would the Russian government do something like this that is so harmful to their own forces?

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You kidding? You think a guy who has no qualms whatsoever getting 1k a day of his own population killed over a hopeless cause is going to care about cutting off their communications???

I would argue it's naive of Putin to believe that those conspiring to kill him are using Telegram or whatever and can't find a decent alternative.

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One of Trump's minions needs to get to him and explain to him that Putin is weak. He's going to lose this war and Putin is going to be killed.

Trump still has the opportunity to dump him and play it off: "Oh, I tried to help Putin but he just wouldn't come around. I did everything I could to help him, but now I'm done with him and I'm looking to do business with someone else."

But Trump still has his eyes on Russian money and it's pathetic.

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Putin will not lose this war..

Would you say that Russia is currently winning?

Good analogy

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As far as nuclear weapons, no. Putin is a psychopath but he's not stupid. The Poles have made it abundantly clear - radiation in Ukraine is radiation in Poland. And that's an act of war.

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I don’t think Russia would use a nuke . . . but I think it would raise the possibility to a level the reward outweighs the risk for Ukraine.

If they put a missile into the kremlin I don’t think you would see the Russian regime collapse. Perhaps more likely you might see the Russian people rally to flag in a way they haven’t been asked to yet.

If Ukraine has missiles that can hit the kremlin, I think they would be better served sticking to hard military targets, sink the rest of their Black Sea fleet, blow up military headquarters, etc.

Ukraine just needs to survive this war to win and they seem to be surviving at the moment. The fallout from such a symbolic attack or attacks on civilian targets is tough to predict.

And if Russia did set of a nuke I don’t think Poland or anyone else would do a thing about it. Poland doesn’t have nukes. No one is jumping into a war with a country that has crossed the one true redline if they don’t have nukes themselves. And certainly the US isn’t getting into a hot war with Russia with Trump as president.

Once the Ukrainians stock up on the hundreds of long range missiles needed for this job (and they're producing them now not only in Ukraine but in Germany as well), it won't be one or two or twelve missiles hitting the Kremlin. It'll be 50 or 100. Once the AD radars defending Moscow are taken out by hundreds of long range drones, the hundred or so missiles will be free to eat. The Russians will be helpless to stop this.

At the same time Moscow area military bases, security offices, fuel logistics and military personnel will be targeted. Anything that is non-civilian. And the Russian population won't be too upset to see this as long as they know they're not targets. No love lost between military types and taxpayers.

After an unrelenting week of this, local command will break down and the siloviki-aligned security forces will start fighting openly. And they won't be shy about it, lots of old scores will be settled and lots of money to be defended.

Under these circumstances, no one outside of Moscow will be taking orders. And I'm not making this up, it has already happened. Remember Prigozhin's march? At that time, an intact and functioning Moscow was helpless to find anyone to stop him. The Kremlin leadership quickly gave up and started flying out from all three airports to escape. What do you think they'll do after Moscow's military and government infrstructure has been hit by a hundred missiles?

Putin will remain bunkered up under layers of security but no one will be listening to him at that point. He'll probably be unable to communicate anyway. It'll be every man for himself looking for someone to surrender to. And they won't have to look too hard. The Ukrainians will be setting up a demilitarized zone... A 2000km demilitarized zone.

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Remember Prigozhin's march

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I do. Truly a bizarre and wild story. I’d love to know why he stopped. He had to know he was dead as soon as he stopped.

If we really all a few hundred missiles away from a complete Ukrainian victory and the collapse of Putin . . . we really did waste a lot of time and money. I think your forecast is a touch rosy for the boys in blue and yellow.

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I’d love to know why he stopped. He had to know he was dead as soon as he stopped.

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I've read Putin started arresting members of his family and the family of top aids and was holding them hostage.

It would be really interesting to know Russia's actual remaining inventory levels of various systems and munitions. There is no way they are
completely replacing their equipment losses, so how much do they have left?

Based on the production dates in pictures of the debris, most of the missiles they are firing were made in the last year. They have a low inventory of tanks in their stockpiles, and their naval losses can't be replaced for decades (given shipyard capacity). It makes one wonder what they have left.

I know most of you follow the war closer than the average man on the street. When's the last time you heard about Russian artillery being a factor on the battlefield? FPV drone warfare has negated that advantage. It's negated that advantage by exceeding the range of artillery. That is why medium range systems like HIMARS, ATACMS, etc... are more important now, because they outrange the FPV's.

Valid question, I'm not sure anyone knows yet. It will really depend on what kind of anti-drone systems emerge in the aftermath of this war. The combat power of a US Armoured brigade is a sledgehammer that can not be equalled.

Ultimately, you need boots on the ground, and that means you need a way to neutralise enemy drone swarms.

Regardless, the current generation of armour is done. It wasn't designed with this battlefield in mind. It will be interesting to see the next generation.