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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:14 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:14 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
The Ukrainians have won this war. They are now fighting for the peace. That will be nothing less than unconditional surrender and total occupational control by the Ukrainians and their friends. Nothing less.
You are acting like the Tennessee batter who started his game winning home run trot only to see the Georgia left fielder take it he home run away at the fence.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:17 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:30 am to Coeur du Tigre
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Washington Report @Washington_Rep
Ukraine’s FP-7 ballistic missile has now crossed a major threshold: it has completed its first flight tests and moved into combat-oriented testing, marking one of the most significant milestones yet in Ukraine’s domestic long-range strike program.
What the FP-7 is and why this matters: The FP-7 is a short-range ballistic missile developed by Fire Point, a private Ukrainian defense company that emerged early in the full-scale invasion and has since become one of the country’s most important domestic weapons manufacturers. It is designed as a Ukrainian equivalent to the U.S. ATACMS, with a similar ~300 km class range, but built entirely from Ukrainian components and reportedly at roughly half the cost.
This combination—ATACMS-like performance, domestic production, and lower cost—makes the FP-7 strategically important because it reduces Ukraine’s dependence on Western stockpiles and political constraints while enabling scalable production.
What we know about its development status:
- Initial flight completed: Fire Point co-founder and chief designer Denys Shtilerman confirmed that the FP-7 has already flown successfully.
- Entering combat testing: Shtilerman stated that the next phase involves testing “on our neighbors,”![]()
a clear reference to operational trials against Russian military targets.
- Multiple test launches already conducted: Fire Point reported three completed FP-7 test launches by mid-March 2026.
- Fully domestic supply chain: All components are produced in Ukraine, a major shift from earlier reliance on foreign electronics and propulsion systems.
Technical characteristics emerging from open sources: While full specifications remain classified, several features have been publicly indicated:
- Range: 200–300 km depending on source; Shtilerman explicitly frames it as an ATACMS-class system.
- Speed: Near-hypersonic velocities (~1,500 m/s), complicating interception.
- Launch method: Hot-launch from a mobile truck-mounted platform, emphasizing mobility and survivability.
- Design lineage: Some analysts suggest it may derive from the Soviet 48N6 interceptor (S-400 family) but rebuilt with composite structures and modern Ukrainian electronics.
Strategic implications:
- Operational independence: Ukraine gains a domestically controlled precision-strike capability that cannot be vetoed or delayed by foreign governments.
- Cost-effective mass production: If the “half the cost of ATACMS” claim holds, Ukraine could field these in larger numbers than Western-supplied equivalents.
- Pressure on Russian rear areas: A 300 km range puts major Russian logistics hubs, airbases, and command centers in occupied territory at risk.
- Foundation for longer-range systems: The FP-7 is paired with the FP-9 program, an 850 km-range missile intended to reach deep into Russia, including Moscow.![]()
What to watch next:
- Whether Ukraine begins using FP-7s in real strikes inside occupied territory or Russia proper.
- How Russia adapts its air-defense posture in response to a new ballistic threat.
- Whether Fire Point can scale production under wartime conditions.
- The timeline for FP-9’s first flight, which would mark Ukraine’s entry into true long-range ballistic capability.
3:27 PM · Mar 16, 2026
LINK
Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:44 am to Coeur du Tigre
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the russian military literally runs on telegram for frontline coordination and now the government is blocking it at home
Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:46 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 3/16/26 at 1:41 pm to Coeur du Tigre
The question is does Putin go all in and actually declare war. That means constant barrage and draft of his own people. This special military operation has run it's course. It is all-in time or just negotiate terms. African and NK troops will not end this. It will take a total commitment to get it done. He does not want to because it will hurt him on the homefront.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 2:54 pm to doubleb
quote:
The Ukrainians have won this war. They are now fighting for the peace. That will be nothing less than unconditional surrender and total occupational control by the Ukrainians and their friends. Nothing less.
You are acting like the Tennessee batter who started his game winning home run trot only to see the Georgia left fielder take it he home run away at the fence.
You're right that it's too soon to declare a Ukrainian victory, but he's not crazy. Ukraine is now on the offensive, Russia is now isolated and it's not going to get better for the invaders.
I've said for a while now that Russia cannot win the war, but that's different than saying that Ukraine can win it. It's becoming a possibility, however, and it's surreal to be saying it.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 2:59 pm to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. This explains almost everything about Putin and Trump and Trump's 180 degree turn on the issue.
I wonder if Vance in is there....
Posted on 3/16/26 at 3:35 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Anyone upset about the Iran operation who has chirped for years about how good supporting Ukraine is for the US is a fricking hypocrite..sorry
Horshit - it's 100% consistent
Two major powers don't need to start major wars for no real reason other than greed and power. That's completely reasonable and fair.
This post was edited on 3/16/26 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 3/16/26 at 5:07 pm to Leopold
quote:
This explains almost everything about Putin and Trump and Trump's 180 degree turn on the issue.
I wonder if Vance in is there....
It's only ships already at sea. Russia doesn't gain financially as it was already sold. Title of oil changes when it is onboard the ship, legally via Mate's Receipt then Bill of Lading. That is standard for 100 years now.
Edit -There are numerous supertankers sitting at sea with Russian crude from a month or two ago.
This post was edited on 3/16/26 at 5:14 pm
Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:12 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I'll grant you this: Russia could collapse in the result of Putin's death. He could have a heart attack and die tomorrow, and various factions among the military, siloviki, and FSB would begin competing for control. The winner would likely be the person who controlled the bulk of military and other power in the Moscow region, and that would likely mean military commanders moving troops away from Ukraine. It would also likely lead to Chechnya, etc. breaking away.
Putin has deliberately avoided setting up any kind of succession plan---largely because such a plan could create an opportunity for a coup. But that same failure to create such a plan will doom Russia when Putin eventually dies.
The exact same with Xi.
The Kim dynasty is the only one a succession plan... and the kids keep getting more ruthless and evil.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 9:28 pm to CitizenK
quote:
It's only ships already at sea. Russia doesn't gain financially as it was already sold.
So why bother, exactly? Just to technically approve of an illegal transaction that already happened?
Lots of people think that's a crack in the dam and by expiration time it will be expanded "because the oil market is endangered."
Posted on 3/16/26 at 10:16 pm to Lee B
Ukraine counterattacks providing issues for Russia.
ISW continues to report Ukraine gains
quote:
Key Takeaways
Continued Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are likely constraining Russian offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction and may soon threaten Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction.
Ukrainian counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are forcing Russia to redeploy forces and means from other areas of the frontline and likely from operational level reserves.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continues to reject any negotiated settlement that fails to concede to all of Russia’s demands even if it concedes to Russia’s territorial demands.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly issued orders prohibiting Russian soldiers from using Telegram.
The Kremlin continues throttling Telegram domestically, setting conditions to block it completely.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, near Pokrovsk, and near Oleksandrivka. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure. Russian forces launched 211 drones against Ukraine, including in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv oblasts.
ISW continues to report Ukraine gains
Posted on 3/16/26 at 11:04 pm to Lee B
quote:
So why bother, exactly? Just to technically approve of an illegal transaction that already happened?
That is how it works. The vast majority of the public has zero clue. They think that Exxon drills and produces oil then ships it to Exxon refineries. A number of trading companies have offices in Singapore now. Shell Trading has had its trading office there for years. Crude oil sometimes changes hands, on paper, at sea, and destination as well.
IMO, hard hit in the US will be California and Hawaiian refineries. In Hawaii they cannot use Alaskan crude due too high in sulfur and WWII technology for light sweet crude, so it mostly comes from Middle East.
Posted on 3/17/26 at 12:43 am to CitizenK
I know how oil and other commodities markets and futures and all that jazz works... I understand the difference between wholesale and retail and all the stops in between.
I know oil starts being traded before it leaves the well.
So, who is buying those initial contracts and why aren't they punished? Are people down the line trading the contracts punished, or just up to the person who refines it, by which time no one knows where it came from (if not way before then).
You know far, far, far more than I do about any of this... I'm genuinely asking. I have read explanations of how the sanctions work and why they were working, then I've read things arguing they really didn't work in any way except pushing the price way down and hurting Russia that way... someone is going to take advantage of the situaton and get oil for cheap, but they have to factor in doing something that costs them in return.
I know oil starts being traded before it leaves the well.
So, who is buying those initial contracts and why aren't they punished? Are people down the line trading the contracts punished, or just up to the person who refines it, by which time no one knows where it came from (if not way before then).
You know far, far, far more than I do about any of this... I'm genuinely asking. I have read explanations of how the sanctions work and why they were working, then I've read things arguing they really didn't work in any way except pushing the price way down and hurting Russia that way... someone is going to take advantage of the situaton and get oil for cheap, but they have to factor in doing something that costs them in return.
Posted on 3/17/26 at 12:54 am to CitizenK
quote:
The vast majority of the public has zero clue. They think that Exxon drills and produces oil then ships it to Exxon refineries.
I actually just tried to explain the global oil market to an old acquaintance who was demanding Governor Landry "Keep Louisiana Oil just for Louisiana," so we'd have cheap gas prices in the state. He didn't like being told that's... uh, not at all how anything works... or that the refinery down the road from his house isn't probably refining oil from the state's boundaries, but probably from Mexico or Canada or Venezuela while oil from LA's Gulf platforms are headed elsewhere... that refineries are set up for particular types of oil, decided by what comes in cheapest and goes out at a profit. Links to back that up just made him angrier.
Posted on 3/17/26 at 2:20 am to Leopold
quote:
This explains almost everything about Putin and Trump and Trump's 180 degree turn on the issue.
Guys, I've been preaching this for a couple of years now and most of you are resistant to accept it. I understand, it's frightening and extremely upsetting to realize that our President is a pedophile and is being blackmailed by the Russians for this (as well as the Israelis). But the horrible facts cannot be denied forever. The sooner we drop the denial and accept it, the sooner we will see events with clear eyes and complete understanding.
I pray that someone in the DoJ becomes a modern-day Daniel Ellsberg and releases the complete file, thereby saving us and the world from the control of dictators like Putin and Netanyahu. But so far, no one has the courage.
Posted on 3/17/26 at 2:50 am to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Later this year when the new-generation FP-9's will start full production, the first target will be the Yelabuga drone assembly plant. However Moscow will be hit as well.
The Kremlin is a huge iconic symbol of the Russian government. It's targeting and destruction will be a giant eye-opener for all Russians and bring home the fact that the war is lost and Putin has to go.
quote:
A sticking point for all of Ukraine's deep-strike weaponry has been that Russia has effectively ringed Moscow and St. Petersburg with air defense systems. Drones and even cruise missiles almost never get through, a problem that Shtilierman acknowledged even as the maker of both.
"The FP-9 will be able to strike targets in Moscow easily because it has a very high speed of impact," Shtilierman said. "For example, the Iskander has a speed of about 800 meters per second. At that speed it hits.
"Ours will hit at over 1,200, so we'll overcome anti-air defenses noticeably easier. Yes, something will get in the way, but 25% or something like that will get through and hit the target."
LINK
Posted on 3/17/26 at 2:55 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 3/17/26 at 2:59 am to Coeur du Tigre
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