re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

So, here is an independent analyst, one who thought that Russia would steamroll Ukraine in the first months, who is now saying that Russia's oil infrastructure is about to collapse. Zeihan puts it at about 3 weeks left, maybe a little bit more:

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"If Ukraine is now moving toward systematically degrading Russia's power plants, it presents Putin with a major dilemma," said Michael Kofman, a military analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Does he double down and risk public anger over blackouts, or divert resources from the front to protect infrastructure deep inside Russia?"

For Ukraine, the calculus is clear.

Russia has bombarded Ukraine's grid for three winters in a row, destroying transformers, substations, and thermal stations.

Millions of Ukrainians endured freezing blackouts, while hospitals and water systems ran on generators. Kyiv argues that striking Russia's grid is both militarily effective and morally justified.

"Targeting civilian power in Russia is not escalation — it's reciprocity," said Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko in a statement. "They tried to freeze us into submission. Now Russians will feel what they've inflicted on us."

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Ukraine's missile strike on a major thermal power plant in Belgorod this weekend has plunged large parts of the Russian city into darkness, in what analysts say could represent a game-changing escalation in Kyiv's strategy.

The Belgorod Thermal Power Station, a 60-megawatt facility supplying over one-third of the city's heating and electricity needs, was hit alongside the nearby Luch substation, according to Russian social media and Ukrainian reports.

Belgorod, a city of around 350,000 people located just 25 miles from the Ukrainian border, is a key logistical hub for Moscow's war effort.

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Ukraine hits Russian electric plant Newsmax

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At least 25 people have died from suspected methanol poisoning and several more have been injured in Russia after they drank bootleg vodka

A group of people in the Leningrad region were involved in a "mass poisoning" on Sept. 26 after consuming 45% ABV homemade vodka

Methanol is found in windshield wiper fluid, antifreeze and other household products, and is sometimes used to make bootleg liquor

At least 25 people reportedly died from suspected methanol poisoning and several more were injured in Russia last week after they drank bootleg vodka.

According to reports from Metro, Reuters and Russian news outlet Izvestia, a group of people in Slantsy, located in Russia's Leningrad region, were involved in a "mass poisoning" on Friday, Sept. 26, after consuming 90 proof vodka (or about 45% alcohol by volume).

Izvestia reported that all the victims consumed illegally sold alcohol products seemingly containing methanol.

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25 Russians dead after drinking bootleg vodka People

price controls and purchase limits.

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Are we to expect you to make an announcement every time Russia occupies another sunflower field??

Russian propagandist Maksim Kalashnikov stated that Ukraine's attacks on oil refineries, gas pumping stations, and pipelines are no longer pinpoint actions, but a systematic campaign aimed at Russia's economic shattering.

"I can state that the situation is deteriorating. The fuel crisis is developing now. The voices of those who say that they have to switch to rationed consumption using coupons, basically fuel cards, are becoming louder and louder," he said.

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So, here is an independent analyst, one who thought that Russia would steamroll Ukraine in the first months, who is now saying that Russia's oil infrastructure is about to collapse. Zeihan puts it at about 3 weeks left, maybe a little bit more:

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Zeihan knows next to zero about oil and refining. He still thinks that refineries "retool" with new equipment to make winter blends or summer gasoline blends. The only thing they do is blend N butane into winter blend which they cannot do in summer due Reid Vapor Pressure. Refineries operate for usually 2 to 3 years before major plant wide turnaround. This is predicated on the lifespan of catalyst in reformers and hydroprocessing units

At least here in the US, turnarounds could last a month or two but now take a few weeks.

The question I ask is if Russia now gets its skilled labor from China? Russian construction/maintenance labor is very below standard in productivity and quality, and Eastern Europe is no longer supplying it.

This seems pretty obvious. How much of it is because a) it makes sense and b) because they aren't sure they can rely on the US to fulfil NATO obligations?

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France has been advocating for Europe to take more direct control over their own defense for a while now, especially with Macron in charge.

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So has Trump

FTR, Russia's oil fields have already matured and began to decline in production before 2022