re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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The only way I could see this happening is if Putin's army is on the brink of collapse or revolt. Wagner comes to mind.

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See, I want to believe that - I really, really do.

But the military had their chance to join in when Prigozhin revolted and they just stood by, passively. Not exactly a big win for Putin, but it also shows you they are more interested in surviving than revolting.

That along with the fact that Putin was sure to make an example of Prigozhin means it isn't happening soon. Ever see that old movie 'The Usual Suspects?" How can you shoot the devil in the back? What if you miss?

The Russian military is garbage and it's garbage for a reason: they were kept weak for a generation. Imagine if the Sopranos ran a military - that's what the Russian military would look like. So, you don't have genuine soldiers, sailors, and pilots running it, you have mafia bosses. Apparently, the way you move up in the Russian military isn't whether or not you can command a company, or a frigate, or a fighter wing, it's if you can steal things and ship the money up the chain of command. That's not a recipe for an organized rebellion because an actual military man would be looking to lead a rebellion no matter what it costs him.

The same thing that guarantees Putin's security is also guaranteeing the Russians lose this thing in the most costly, painful way possible - the glut of subservient 'yes men' running the second largest army on the planet, and the worse this war gets for the Russians the further Putin is going to retreat back into his handlers.

Fine and dandy but it has to pass in the legislature and a national referendum as well

The constitution will be nullified and a new government formed in whatever rump-state of Ukraine remains (if it does) as a condition of Ukraine's surrender.

All of this could've been avoided but no, a bunch of seniors 8000 miles away tried to flex on the internet instead.

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Give Russia all of Luhansk and Donetsk up to the current line of combat, Ukraine pulls out of the small bit of Kursk they still hold. Russia pulls out of the Kharkiv/Sumy regions and all of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson while Russia keeps Crimea. Ukraine is allowed to join the EU but not NATO for 30 years with the caveat that if Russia tries attacking Ukraine again then Ukraine is immediately eligible for NATO acceptance even with Ukraine technically in a war and a protection agreement for 30 years of NATO protection from Russia in the event of an invasion wether they are voted in or not.

Most good deals are when both sides aren't happy. This is that kind of deal. Ukraine will have to give up the majority of the Donbas and Crimea but they get back the southern oblasts and they get a protection promise in writing with a path to NATO down the road. Ukraine is also not limited to the size of their army or who they deal with so they can order brand new Gripen E from Sweden or new F-16 Block 70/72 from South Carolina if Ukraine decides to stay with the aircraft they already know and have more trained pilots and maintenance techs while Ukraine becomes a major exporter of military drones.

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So, with this precedent, how much of Taiwan and the Japanese chain Islands does China get to keep when they invade it?

Thorough article by FT on new construction for weapons manufacture throughout Europe.

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Using more than 1,000 radar satellite passes, the FT tracked changes at sites associated with ammunition and missile production, two bottlenecks in the west’s support for Ukraine.

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The scale and spread of the detected work suggests a generational shift in rearmament, moving Europe from just-in-time peacetime production towards building an industrial base for a more sustained war footing.

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Areas marked by changes jumped from 790,000 sq metres in 2020-21 to 2.8mn sq metres in 2024-25, the analysis showed. Photography of these sites confirmed the changes were driven by excavations ahead of works, new buildings, fresh roads being paved and construction.

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The analysis examined 88 sites linked to an EU programme, Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), which has invested €500mn to tackle specific bottlenecks in the production of ammunition and missiles. Both the Rheinmetall and Roxel sites were supported by ASAP.

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Financial Times

Lots of confusion about this Russian breakthrough. Some declare it to be the start of a massive Russian offensive, some have said it's just two thunder runs by sabotage groups of less than 100 men. We'll wait and see.

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Zelenski and the Ukrainians have said multiple times in the past they'd consider letting the Russians have the conquered territory if they had the security guarantees mentioned before and I'd argue they'd go along with it even now if they knew - absolutely knew - that the Russians would abide by it. But, of course, we know that won't happen, the Ukrainians most of all.

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They are accepting terms on condition of a metric they control and only they can know: whether or not they believe Russia will follow through with any agreements.

While I get the sentiment because broken agreements are a that pillar Russia is built on, that also gives Ukrainian leadership an out to never accept peace if they don't want to because there is no concrete goal to hit. With billions of dollars in cash, arms, etc flying around with little accountability in terms of where those go, and the west seemingly willing to fund this war indefinitely, there is a lot of incentive for Ukrainian leadership to not accept anything. Even if the front completely collapses for them, those at the top will likely be whisked away into Poland or some other NATO country.

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So, with this precedent, how much of Taiwan and the Japanese chain Islands does China get to keep when they invade it?

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I don't think we would do anything meaningful to stop China, but I do think t our response to Russia has made China think twice a bit on how they want to handle Taiwan.

China seems more content to play the long game than Russia. Like funding some militant group in Taiwan and having them overthrow the government and join China or something. Or even putting their actual troops in country to run an op posing as such.

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There are a number of hurdles they have to clear first. Russia was unwilling to clear them so didn't progress from being a Partner with NATO like Finland and Switzerland have been for decades. Instead, Russia withdrew from being a partner

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Oh I don't want them in NATO at all under any circumstances. I'm saying based on Pilot's comment, you're effectively making them one anyway without the drawback of having to contribute.