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re: How realistic is this electoral map?

Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:49 am to
Posted by Rex Feral
Member since Jan 2014
16121 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:49 am to
quote:

Minny could

They haven't gone red in our lifetimes. Hell, they even voted for Carter against Reagan
Posted by meldawg399
nola
Member since Oct 2008
1177 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:58 am to
quote:

quote:
Minny could


They haven't gone red in our lifetimes. Hell, they even voted for Carter against Reagan


polling is closer there than many other state Trump won 4 years ago. Most polls are showing MN tighter than AZ, FL, WI, MI, PA, & NC. According to the polls, he'd win MN before any of those other states in a re-election scenario.
Posted by Mid Iowa Tiger
Undisclosed Secure Location
Member since Feb 2008
23978 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:59 am to
Trump winning NY is a stretch but not that much of one. Manhattan is a dump and wasteland right now. They are fed up and Trump is "one of them". It could happen (not likely but could).

Truthfully this will either be a Trump landslide (something along the lines of Reagan/Mondale) or a Biden landslide.

I don't see a tight race.

This post was edited on 8/27/20 at 12:01 pm
Posted by Wtodd
Tampa, FL
Member since Oct 2013
68474 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:59 am to
quote:

How realistic is this electoral map?

Very
Posted by FlyingTiger1955
Member since Jan 2019
5765 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:01 pm to
Pure BS - Trump is not winning NY, Nevada or Minnesota. He will only win maybe 1 of the states of Michigan, Pa or Wisconsin.
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
47885 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:04 pm to
There is no chance Trump wins NY or any of the New England states. He isn't getting Hawaii or Minnesota either. I think the rest is realistic.
Posted by LSUFootballLover
BR
Member since Oct 2008
4433 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:09 pm to
I love that map but it isn’t realistic. Hillary had 4.5M votes to Trumps 2.8M in NY
This post was edited on 8/27/20 at 12:15 pm
Posted by Wtodd
Tampa, FL
Member since Oct 2013
68474 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

Hillary has 4.5M votes to Trumps 2.8M in NY

It's not the same NY as in 2016; NY is in play
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13947 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

Pure BS - Trump is not winning NY, Nevada or Minnesota


Minnesota was very tight in '16. I don't know why y'all are making it out to be this Democratic redoubt in '20, especially with the rioting that started in Minneapolis. That will significantly hurt Biden's margins in the suburbs there.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23521 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

To win those are Trump's worst and best cases.


GLee has done well with those map scenarios, but Trump’s worst case scenario ends in a loss.
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24847 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

Don't see NV and NM going red without CO.


Swap those and also NY will go blue and then the rest is at least possible


NY going red before NH
This post was edited on 8/27/20 at 12:42 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23521 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:42 pm to
This is unlikely, but I would say that this is Trump’s worst case scenario.

I would not feel confident saying that Trump’s worst case scenario is a narrow win.

Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13947 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

I would not feel comfortable saying Trump's worst case is a narrow in


No, I was saying that's his worst case that still has him getting to 270 EV's (i.e. those are his easiest 270 EV's). Worst case (of all scenarios, including Trump losing the election) would be:

This post was edited on 8/27/20 at 12:49 pm
Posted by AnyonebutSteelers
Austin, Texas
Member since Aug 2020
715 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:51 pm to
The map is absurd. Trump isn't going to win New York any more than Biden is going to win Oklahoma.
Posted by AubieinNC2009
Mountain NC
Member since Dec 2018
7076 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 12:54 pm to
probably about as reliable as 538s simulations that have Biden winning MS and AL
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23521 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 1:53 pm to
Oh, I see. Thanks
Posted by troyt37
Member since Mar 2008
14681 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 2:00 pm to
Probably a little much, but one that stands out to me is New Hampshire. I don't remember the difference there in 2016, but it was damn close, and Trump could take that state.
Posted by KCT
Psalm 23:5
Member since Feb 2010
46660 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 2:02 pm to
Hawaii isn't going red, but the rest of it "could" happen. The Deep State is desperate, and people are waking up.

I honestly think President Trump could win at least 40 states.
Posted by AnyonebutSteelers
Austin, Texas
Member since Aug 2020
715 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 2:03 pm to
Some Trump voters, quite seriously, are as guilty of overconfidence as Hillary voters were four years ago. Trump winning New York? Trump carrying 40 states?

Let's be honest, this is as nonsensical as those who were predicting a Hillary landslide.
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24847 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 2:13 pm to
538 is currently projecting what I think is the worst case scenario for Trump... losing all the blue shaded states up through AZ. Best case scenario IMO is Trump winning all the states up through Maine. Colorado and Virginia are too far gone.

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