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re: How realistic is this electoral map?

Posted on 8/27/20 at 10:41 am to
Posted by Party At LSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2005
10700 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 10:41 am to
Flip NY, NM and NV to blue and that’s what I actually think the map will be. I think Trump will win 322-216 with an outside chance of NH going red.

ETA: Actually Hawaii will stay blue as well so if NH flips red, it’ll be 322-216 but I’ll officially predict 318-220.
This post was edited on 8/27/20 at 10:44 am
Posted by Knight of Old
New Hampshire
Member since Jul 2007
11101 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 10:41 am to
NH should go Trump.

NY state will not be able to tip the scale of NYC dims.

There will prolly be a couple more blues but I couldn’t guess which ones.

All in all though, I really believe the chance of winning is closer to 99% (especially if the election were held today) and that the Electoral vote will certainly approach landslide territory...
Posted by broadhead
Member since Oct 2014
2147 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 10:43 am to
Guess no one is paying attention but NYC is a ghost town. New York is going red.
Posted by i am dan
NC
Member since Aug 2011
24996 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 10:46 am to
quote:

with all of de blasio's antics in NYC, i could actually see NY flipping due to reduction of the NYC vote and heavy upstate R voting...


Are left leaning or right leaning people leaving the city?

I spoke to a buddy of mine that lives across the river in Jersey the other day in Jersey. He's Asian and sort of conservative, but even he said he thinks DeBlasio and Cuomo are getting a bad wrap a bit.
Posted by GeorgeWest
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2013
13275 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 10:47 am to
LOL. You'd have to be on Meth to think that scenario would play out in November. New Mexico and Nevada are definitely going to Biden for starters. New York, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are going to Biden as well. Sheesh, that guy is clueless.
This post was edited on 8/27/20 at 10:49 am
Posted by 2014Tigers
Shreveport
Member since Aug 2014
1067 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 10:54 am to
It’s going to be similar to when RR won, but not that many electoral votes.
Posted by Nigel Farage
South of the Mason-Dixon
Member since Dec 2019
1212 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 10:57 am to
Anyone believing this map is delusional.
Posted by ZZTIGERS
Member since Dec 2007
17188 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:02 am to
quote:

New Mexico and Nevada are definitely going to Biden for starters. New York, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are going to Biden as well.

Why would Pennsylvania & Michigan definitely go for Biden? I’m curious to hear your reasoning.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
119588 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:03 am to
I think this is more reasonable:

Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
135222 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:04 am to
NY and NM will never go red
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13112 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:05 am to
Trump's easiest path to 270:


If there's a Trump landslide, this is probably the highest EV total:

Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
119588 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:08 am to
quote:

GeneralLee


I agree with those maps.

To win those are Trump's worst and best cases. My map was right in the middle of your worst and best cases.
Posted by hottub
Member since Dec 2012
3398 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:09 am to
quote:

Hawaii



I was in HI recently and was surprised with the amount of MAGA gear I saw.

I still think HI will be blue but think it will be very close.
Posted by jmarto1
Houma, LA/ Las Vegas, NV
Member since Mar 2008
34322 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:09 am to
Nevada is held hostage by the unions
Posted by Hamma1122
Member since Sep 2016
19933 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:13 am to
Not realistic at all
Posted by Hamma1122
Member since Sep 2016
19933 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:14 am to
NH was 2700 votes shy of being red in 2016
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13112 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:16 am to
quote:

To win those are Trump's worst and best cases. My map was right in the middle of your worst and best cases.


I think Trump has maybe a 1 in 4 chance of peeling off VA in a landslide. But NOVA is just so inundated with government workers that I think VA is lost forever.
Posted by bluedragon
Birmingham
Member since May 2020
7005 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:17 am to
Sante Fe is loaded with gays and artists ...Doubt it goes red.
Posted by Tigerlaff
FIGHTING out of the Carencro Sonic
Member since Jan 2010
20946 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:19 am to
Y'all are smoking crack if you think the state of New York is going red.

The poli board: "The media has everyone brainwashed. Fake news rules the day. Feels > reals."

Also the poli board: "People are waking up! Just watch!"
This post was edited on 8/27/20 at 11:21 am
Posted by awestruck
Member since Jan 2015
11006 posts
Posted on 8/27/20 at 11:23 am to
quote:

goofball
.. . .. enough said
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