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Here’s a terrible thought. What if Trafalgar is this year’s version of joshuachamberlain
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:07 pm
He told us in 2012 that Romney had it. That the public polling was off
We believed. We got suckered in.
Polling errors can happen going in either direction
We believed. We got suckered in.
Polling errors can happen going in either direction
20
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:07 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Trump is not Romney and Biden is not Obama.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:08 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Compare Obama’s crowds to Romney’s.
Then do Biden v Trump.
Then do Biden v Trump.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:08 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Nothing anyone says about polls matters one fricking iota
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:08 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
All we have is they’ve been the most accurate, in recent times. All anyone has to go on right now
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:09 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Then Trafalgar will vanish for good, and rightfully so.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:09 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Are all meechigan people crazy like your gubernor?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:11 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Here’s a terrible thought. What if Trafalgar is this year’s version of joshuachamberlain
Didn't Trafalgar basically nail the 2016 election? That means he has a very significant skin on the wall, unlike an anonymous message board poster.
Dumb thread.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:11 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I was more convinced that Romney would lose in 2012 then I was the Trump would lose in 2016. Who didn’t see that coming? Obama was a tidal wave.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:12 pm to Walkthedawg
All indications are that Romney's internal polls had him winning all the way up to election day. I believe it was abysmal exit polling that had Joshua on here saying the bottom dropped out and they all were wrong.
Agree with others. If Trafalgar is way off, they deserve to die off.
Agree with others. If Trafalgar is way off, they deserve to die off.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:13 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Did Joshua Chamberlain have a verified track record to back him up? WTF do you come up with this stupid fricking shite?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:15 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:I think it's perpetually amazing how willing the board is to fall prey to recency bias - they simply take what happened last time and project it infinitely into the future. (And that's before you consider that "last time" was a razor-thin result to begin with that likely got some weather-related luck.)
Here’s a terrible thought. What if Trafalgar is this year’s version of joshuachamberlain
He told us in 2012 that Romney had it. That the public polling was off
We believed. We got suckered in.
Polling errors can happen going in either direction
They continue with this "I don't know a single person who voted for Trump in 16 who is flipping" as if there aren't likely millions of such people.
The most I think it's fair to say is that the race is much closer than the polls indicate. But Biden has the lead, don't doubt that. And the Senate could fall. Don't doubt that either.
And of course if Trump loses, it'll be a whole big new conspiracy to whine about for 4 years instead of just accepting they were wrong this entire time.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:16 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
joshuachamberlain
"Obama is DONE. Its OVER"
What a loser that guy turned out to beThis post was edited on 10/30/20 at 3:17 pm
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:18 pm to ZZTIGERS
quote:
Did Joshua Chamberlain have a verified track record to back him up? WTF do you come up with this stupid fricking shite?
Did he just equate some dipshit on TD to a guy who owns a polling service which his livelihood probably depends greatly on? Yeah, one has a lil more skin in the game,Bud
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:19 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
But Biden has the lead, don't doubt that.
No one has, or has ever had a "lead" in a US Presidential election before Election Day. Polling advantages are not a "lead". Its not a football game or a footrace.
Polls are not votes and there are zero votes until Tuesday.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:20 pm to saints5021
quote:
All indications are that Romney's internal polls had him winning all the way up to election day.
If my aunt had balls and EVs were delegated per congressional district vs WTA, he would have won and I would have another uncle.
This post was edited on 10/30/20 at 3:21 pm
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:20 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I think it's perpetually amazing how willing the board is to fall prey to recency bias - they simply take what happened last time and project it infinitely into the future. (And that's before you consider that "last time" was a razor-thin result to begin with that likely got some weather-related luck.)
They continue with this "I don't know a single person who voted for Trump in 16 who is flipping" as if there aren't likely millions of such people.
I'm not saying you are right or wrong, but on what basis would you suspect millions who voted for Trump in 2016 are now going to switch their vote in 2020?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:21 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Actual results in Miami Dade coupled with zero stops by either candidate in Ohio tells us that AT WORST this will be a heartbreakingly close loss.
At best we can exceed 2016 electoral votes.
If you told me those were the best and worst case scenarios a month ago I think we’d all have been thrilled.
At best we can exceed 2016 electoral votes.
If you told me those were the best and worst case scenarios a month ago I think we’d all have been thrilled.
This post was edited on 10/30/20 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:21 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
the board
Always precedes an awful argument.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 3:21 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
What a loser that guy turned out to be
He took a stance and stuck to it, something most people here are agraid to do.
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