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re: Harris now the comfortable betting favorite on all sites; wtf is going on?
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:27 am to Lou Pai
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:27 am to Lou Pai
He did start getting after her for taking his positions. He needs to continue. Needs to drive home that they’ll say anything to seem “centrist” and govern opposite.
0
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:28 am to slackster
The Yankees got run up to a -350 favorite last night over the White Sox. They lost 12-2.
All anyone has heard for the last few weeks is the coordinated media blitz that Harris is screaming ahead, they see polls moving toward her and assume that it's going to keep moving that direction. Same thing happened when Trump took the momentum. Far too many bettors fall for the favorite fallacy.
I still contend that the signs are there for a clear Trump win that is incapable of being stolen if you pay attention.
All anyone has heard for the last few weeks is the coordinated media blitz that Harris is screaming ahead, they see polls moving toward her and assume that it's going to keep moving that direction. Same thing happened when Trump took the momentum. Far too many bettors fall for the favorite fallacy.
I still contend that the signs are there for a clear Trump win that is incapable of being stolen if you pay attention.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:29 am to SlowFlowPro
But they cannot help themselves but to continue.
It would do them better. They have an insistent need. Nature if you will.
It would do them better. They have an insistent need. Nature if you will.
This post was edited on 8/13/24 at 7:30 am
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:29 am to adamau
quote:
still contend that the signs are there for a clear Trump win that is incapable of being stolen if you pay attention.
I pray you’re right.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:30 am to slackster
This will get a ton of downvotes, but it's the truth: Trump is hated by A LOT of people. Harris isn't particularly impressive, but she's not on her death bed. That is enough for a lot of people. Voters just needed a viable alternative to Trump. Biden had lost that.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:30 am to Rtowntiger
quote:
Makes zero sense. She is objectively horrible and has zero no platform and is currently trying to switch every stance she has ever had.
Everyone on here keeps saying this. WE know this but the average dumbass voter doesn’t
People have Biden and Trump fatigue and are desperate for someone younger. The fact she’s female and a minority is big for some people too.
They don’t give two shits about what she did in the 90s-last month.
Why can’t people understand this. The fact that everyone on here doesn’t think she’s a big threat is mind-boggling. And you cope by telling yourself they will steal or cheat and fail to see the data
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:32 am to Mickey Goldmill
Are you voting because of hate? If not, what are you voting for?
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:33 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
Trump is hated by A LOT of people
And much of that has been manufactured by the mockingbird media.
That should tell you something, but it's ok to you.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:33 am to slackster
I take the odds as more of a view of the lack of confidence in the intellect level of the average Harris voter. That and the lengths the left will go to win.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:33 am to dallastiger55
I'll acknowledge she is the favorite, but the betting line would be something like Harris -125 and Trump + 110. I wouldn't call that comfortable. It's not far from a "pick it".
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:33 am to dallastiger55
The Democrats start elections with 47% of the country in the bag. Romney was right. Winning for Republicans requires threading an electoral needle.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:34 am to slackster
Betting odds are based off of polls.
The polls are skewing D hard. I wouldn’t lose sleep over this
The polls are skewing D hard. I wouldn’t lose sleep over this
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:34 am to slackster
quote:Predicitt or whatever it's called shifted wildly the night of. Happens in midterms as well. Whether he actually lays the bets when he says he does or not. Sir Winston has pointed out some pretty good races that the markets had wrong over the last several years.
IIRC, the betting markets were much closer than other prognosticators for 2016
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:35 am to slackster
It’s a psyop
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:35 am to slackster
Propaganda is a powerful tool. Hard to highlight how inept she is when 99% of media run cover for her and her party
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:36 am to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
If really true then Trump really only was acceptable to 40 something% of the population.
Maybe it has nothing to do with Trump and no Republican can win with angry woman turnout against the party of Jeff Landry
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:36 am to NIH
quote:
The Democrats start elections with 47% of the country in the bag. Romney was right. Winning for Republicans requires threading an electoral needle.
Republicans start with 47% too.
They're just worse at politics than the DEMs. Trump was an outlier and allowed the GOP to shed some orthodoxy (like fiscal responsibility re: spending) to gather a larger tent in 2016. But by 2018, that shift in focus (and just how he promotes his public facade) started losing traditional GOP voters at about the same clip as the working class they gained in 2016.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:37 am to slackster
Honeymoon phase
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:38 am to SlowFlowPro
Yeah, that’s it.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:39 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:Maybe, but having a media that echoes "joy" about a dem's campaign is a huge advantage.
They're just worse at politics than the DEMs
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