Future of Trump by Adam Davidson

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The narrative that will become widely understood is that Donald Trump did not sit atop a global empire. He was not an intuitive genius and tough guy who created billions of dollars of wealth through fearlessness. He had a small, sad operation, mostly run by his two oldest children and Michael Cohen, a lousy lawyer who barely keeps up the pretenses of lawyering and who now faces an avalanche of charges, from taxicab-backed bank fraud to money laundering and campaign-finance violations.

Even if he were to fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and then had Mueller and his investigation put on ice, and even if—as is disturbingly possible—Congress did nothing, the Cohen prosecution would continue. Even if Trump pardons Cohen, the information the Feds have on him can become the basis for charges against others in the Trump Organization.

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On the day Bush was on the USS Lincoln with the Mission Accomplished sign, I was in Baghdad, standing outside the Republican Palace hoping to talk to the Americans in charge.

I couldn't. There weren't Americans in charge.

For reporters on the ground in Baghdad, it was hilarious, maddening and a bit terrifying that people in the U.S. actually thought the occupation of Iraq was going well.

We knew. We saw with our eyes: the looting, the chaos, the complete lack of plan among the Americans.

Much later--in June when I came back to NY on vacation--even some of my lefty friends didn't believe me and Jen that the occupation was a complete disaster. It was still in the pundits-yelling-at-each-other phase on TV.

That was a moment where I didn't feel like I was predicting the future. I was merely stating the clear, observable truth.

I felt the same in late 2007, after I spent a few weeks studying C.D.O.s, those toxic assets at the heart of the financial crisis.

Once I knew how they worked, I knew there was a massive financial crisis underway. (I was late to it, others figured this out long, long before me.) But it took another nine or ten months for the entire world to see it. By then, of course, it was too late.

There are many reporters who, now, know a lot about Donald Trump and his ties to shady oligarchs around the former Soviet Union.

We know that Michael Cohen was central to those relationships.

It feels, to me, that we are in the same place we were around the time of that Mission Accomplished sign or the quiet before Bear Stearns and Lehman.

This isn't about opinions anymore. Every single person who has looked at the business knows in a simple, clear way.

In fact, this one is a lot simpler and clearer than the Iraq occupation or the financial crisis.

The Trump Org made much money through shady deals with corrupt criminals. Most of it will come out. It will be uglier and, somehow, also more pathetic than most realize.

Remember Bush and the Iraq war were polling at 70% on the day of that Mission Accomplished move.

It was still common for pundits--like Kudlow--to say there was no crisis in January, 2008, when the fire was burning all around us.

This is no time to be complacent, of course.

But the broad outline of this show is already written. It ends badly, very badly for insiders, not great for the rest of us either.

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