re: Exactly how did Zelensky start his war with Russia?

Russians are in Donbas region because Ukraine used to be part of Russia. Soooooo….

quote:

---

It was started in 2014 by election interference from the Obama administration

---

Remind me what year Hunters pardon is backdated to?

quote:

---

Why would there be any presumption Russia would be in a weaker negotiating position now than in Apr22 on the heels of their Kyiv setback. The obvious corollary being, why would Russia settle for anything less today than what they were offering to consider in 2022? They are certainly in no worse a position relative to the opponent.

---

The situation today is not incredibly different than it was in 2022, except both sides have suffered losses. Ukraine more so obviously, but Russia as well.
Ukraine has been firm from the get go that they will not give up any of their land. That position has not changed. Russia's position has not changed either that they won't accept any peace deal without the land.

quote:

---

But now let's see if the inevitable outcome conveys a lesson. If Ukraine could have a mulligan, a do-over, starting in 2013, how do you think that would go? What if anything would Ukrainians chose to do differently, and how might their lives be better because of it?

---

Well, I suppose being a Russian puppet state is better than what is going on now. They are essentially in a tug of war between the West and Russia. Choose Russia, nothing really happens. Choose the West, get invaded.

quote:

---

“Bombing Russians in Donbas”? Not so. Factually inaccurate.

---

You're mistaken. Not only is it factually accurate, but IAW Angela Merkel's admissions, the bombing was conducted with western knowledge under the false pretext of the Minsk Agreements.

quote:

---

TheShmoo

---

Why are you so upset the war may be ending soon?

quote:

---

They see Putin as their best, strongest counter. My understanding is his popularity is actually up

---

Yeah, I wouldn't put much faith in any polling numbers in Russia.

First of all, Putin controls those polls to the point that Russians being polled are wary they are being tested by the government for loyalty. They're afraid to say negative things to a pollster in order to avoid the midnight knock on their door.

Second, Russians have very little access to any negative news about the war. Picture 150 million people who only know what John Barron says about their war. Times 100. All they hear is how the brave Russian soldiers are slaying the Nazis in Ukraine.

Third, Putin has done a masterful job of limiting the draft of Moscow and St. Petersburg draftees. That's where revolutions in Russian begin. He has been drafting in the Far East and Siberia and in the Caucasus region. Those Muslim and Asiatic savages in those regions don't matter in public opinion polls.

quote:

---

Well, I suppose being a Russian puppet state is better than what is going on now. They are essentially in a tug of war between the West and Russia. Choose Russia, nothing really happens. Choose the West, get invaded.

---

There it is.

I've always maintained that was the reality Viktor Yanukovych recognized. Moving too far, too fast from the Russian orbit always came with risk. When he put the brakes on, Toria Nuland, Soros, etc went nuts. They slapped him with the West's best slimey propaganda, successfully tarred him as "Putin's Puppet," and got him overthrown in a coup.

I'd bet there's many a Ukrainian who wish they could have that moment back.

quote:

---

Yeah, I wouldn't put much faith in any polling numbers in Russia.

First of all, Putin controls those polls to the point that Russians being polled are wary they are being tested by the government for loyalty. They're afraid to say negative things to a pollster in order to avoid the midnight knock on their door.

Second, Russians have very little access to any negative news about the war. Picture 150 million people who only know what John Barron says about their war. Times 100. All they hear is how the brave Russian soldiers are slaying the Nazis in Ukraine.

Third, Putin has done a masterful job of limiting the draft of Moscow and St. Petersburg draftees. That's where revolutions in Russian begin. He has been drafting in the Far East and Siberia and in the Caucasus region. Those Muslim and Asiatic savages in those regions don't matter in public opinion polls.

---

Spot on. I agree.

It is given the reality of #2 and #3, combined with polling direction (2021 vs 2024) across the board, that leaves me suspicious Putin's situation is substantially better than Zelensky's. Obviously there are HUGE challenges polling Russians, especially about Putin. Plus, polls like VTsIOM are state-run, and dubious. But the trends are similar regardless of source. Meanwhile, 60% of Ukrainians do not want to see Zelensky run again, and only ~16% say they'd vote for him. IMO that's why Putin is pushing for Ukrainian elections ASAP.

quote:

---

EU integration was EXTREMELY popular

---

They only knew what they were being told. Who controlled that information? Given what we know of US subterfuge and influence peddling in Ukraine, if you believe Ukrainians controlled that dialogue, or that it was independently derived, you're very naive.

Any cautionary message Yanukovych tried to issue was drowned out by bribed officials and a western puppet press.

They said, "Come take a bite of the apple, Eve. The fruit is sweet. Riches will flow like mana from Heaven. Nothing will go wrong. The EU is Nirvana! If Yanukovych stands in the way, we'll overthrow him in a coup, just like any good democracy would." As you say, "they went nuts."

Just, btw, as we did under a relatively more shallow flood of similarly organized propaganda.

Perhaps, just perhaps, if Ukrainians had known the true lay-of-the-land though, if they'd had access to any facts rather than a tsunami of propaganda, perhaps if they'd been honestly apprised of inherent risks, they would have responded quite differently to western influenced polls, and disinformation. I'd say it would be a very good bet.

As I've told you, Ukrainians were led by the nose to this end. They will come to recognize that, if they haven't already, as will you.

quote:

---

Expecting your usual astute responses.

---

Zelensky didnt.

Our own Bureaucrats are more responsible.