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Started By
Message
Early mail in voting down 73% in Virginia. Youngkin can pull the upset!
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:29 pm
quote:
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTING, 10/19
EV is 67% less (VBM -73%, In Person -62%) than after a similar point in time in 2020. IOW, the "normal" drop-off I'd expect between a Pres and an "off year" statewide election would be 34% (the drop-off between 2017/2016).
(1/3)
In three large, heavily Democratic jurisdictions in NoVA (Alexandria, Arlington, and Fairfax County), these are the % of the early vote they cast as of yesterday:
2017: 33% of EV
2020: 21% of EV
10/19/2021: 16.7% (+0.1%) of EV
(2/3)
Starting today, JMC is adding 3 more large, heavily Dem jurisdictions to the analysis: Richmond, Hampton, and Portsmouth. For these 6 jurisdictions, these are the % of the early vote they cast as of yesterday:
2017: 36% of EV
2020: 26% of EV
10/19/2021: 21% of EV
Not only is early voting way down, but dem areas are lagging as percent of vote
LINK
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Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:30 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Not only is early voting way down, but dem areas are lagging as percent of vote
So, they know where they have to go now. See how convenient this shite is?
This post was edited on 10/20/21 at 2:31 pm
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:30 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I guess the fraud machine ran out of juice or isn’t getting paid by McAuliffe.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:31 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
McAuliffe is going to win. Virginia is lost, and has been for a decade.
ANY analysis of polling numbers based on ANY previous year, or ANY prior data set is totally useless. Idk how the last two presidential cycles haven't taught everyone that.
ANY analysis of polling numbers based on ANY previous year, or ANY prior data set is totally useless. Idk how the last two presidential cycles haven't taught everyone that.
This post was edited on 10/20/21 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:34 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Dominion STAAAAAAAAAACCCCCKKKEEEDDD
Youngkin FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF'd
Youngkin FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF'd
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:34 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Virginia is a blue state. Don’t get your hopes up
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:37 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
McAuliffe is going to win. Virginia is lost, and has been for a decade.
ANY analysis of polling numbers based on ANY previous year, or ANY prior data set is totally useless. Idk how the last two presidential cycles haven't taught everyone that.
Right.
As much I hope YoungKin can pull it off, I'd still much rather be McAuliffe and expect him to win by 1-5 points.
Democrat electoral strength in Nova, Fairfax and Loudoun is way too big for me to say that Youngkin can win Virginia.
But if the upset happens, I'll be pleasantly surprised because that would pretty much seal the deal on Democrats losing Congress in 2022.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:38 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Not only is early voting way down, but dem areas are lagging as percent of vote
It’s amazing you still can’t figure out their playbook.
Step 1: report mail in voting is down
Step 2: figure out the margin
Step 3: ????
Step 4: Dominion go BRTTTTT
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:39 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
You must not be aware.
The dems need to know how many ballots to turn in late to win so it doesn't look odd...
The dems need to know how many ballots to turn in late to win so it doesn't look odd...
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:39 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Dominion says hello.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:40 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:which just means they know where and how much to have mail in votes ready to be delivered for.
Not only is early voting way down, but dem areas are lagging as percent of vote
I’d have thought even you have figured that out, guess not.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:46 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Not only is early voting way down, but dem areas are lagging as percent of vote
This doesn't mean what you think it means. It means they are holding hte mail votes so they have a better idea of how many to throw away and how many fake ones to drop in to guarantee the win.
People forget how close VA elections have been in recent years with the final outcome only coming after those late night drops from northern VA that are mysteriously 90% for one party.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 3:12 pm to Sentrius
quote:
that would pretty much seal the deal on Democrats losing Congress in 2022
Maybe, but I wouldn't have that take away. Much like my previous point, anyone who tries to extrapolate traditional metrics for 2022 federal election performance is an idiot.
Narratives shift too quickly now for anyone to pretend that this VA gubernatorial election plays any part in next years midterms. The only people who do so are overpaid beltway pundits and political whores ("journalists"). Mail in voting has given a huge portion of the country the chance to vote early, or whenever they choose: greatly reducing the predictability of voter sentiment at the time votes are cast.
This post was edited on 10/20/21 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 10/20/21 at 3:14 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
You are truly a broken he/she/it hhtm.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 3:18 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Get ready for historic turnout on election day.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 3:19 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Cameltoe and President* Biden along with Stacy are all in VA trying to help their slimy candidate. I hope it just drags McAuliffe down.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 3:21 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
Virginia is lost, and has been for a decade.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 3:21 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
There are going to head out and milk those teets.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 3:53 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:Or the day after if necessary
Get ready for historic turnout on election day.
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