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re: Desantis just beat trump in Western conservative summit straw poll

Posted on 6/20/21 at 2:01 pm to
Posted by tjv305
Member since May 2015
12520 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 2:01 pm to
I don’t think they both run so it doesn’t matter. Desantis could hurt his political career running against Trump .
Posted by tigerbaiter1033
USA
Member since Nov 2011
2313 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 2:11 pm to
Give me Desantis over Trump for 2024. He’s a great candidate and I don’t want another old arse president
This post was edited on 6/20/21 at 2:12 pm
Posted by shoelessjoe
Member since Jul 2006
9926 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 5:15 pm to
quote:

Reinstated by whom? The courts? nope. The Pentagon MIC, nope.


The states once they decertify, yep!!
Posted by RammerJammer91
Member since Jan 2016
5195 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 7:21 pm to
quote:

sub white women is a rino rove fairy tale. They went overwhelmingly for Trump in a stolen election. Want Trump back now and DeSantis for 24. Trump may be too old in 24


These suburban Republican voters exist.

For the second straight election, Trump underperformed the majority of down-ballot Republicans in the suburbs of nearly every state. These voters are Republican and Republican-leaning Independents that don't like Trump, which is why they've split tickets and allowed down-ballot Republicans to either outperform Trump state-wide or in their suburban districts.

In the Senate, Rubio/Portman/Isakson/McCain/Burr/Johnson/Ayotte all received more votes than Trump did in their respective states in 2016. Toomey outperformed Trump in the Philly suburbs. In 2020, Cornyn/Gardner/Tillis did better than Trump in the biggest counties. Cornyn received over 100K more votes than Trump did in just the 10 largest counties in TX alone. David Perdue received over 17K more votes than Trump in Cobb//DeKalb/Fulton/Gwinnett.

There were approximately 5.5 and 5 million voters who voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but didn't vote for Trump, in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

In WI, there were approximately 78K voters who voted for at least 1 Republican but didn't vote for Trump. In GA that number was between 120-130K. In AZ it was between 45-50K. In MI and PA it was over 150K. In a state he won, like TX, it was approximately 320K.

Considering that DeSantis does better than Trump with pretty much every demographic, especially women and suburban voters, you'll see a large swing in % and/or raw votes in the suburbs back to him in 2024, should he get the GOP nomination. In short, he won't leave anywhere close to as many votes out there as Trump did, particularly in the suburbs.

There are plenty of votes that ARE there. We just need someone who can appeal to these voters. Given the data that we have, DeSantis is that guy. If we want to fricking win, DeSantis is our guy. Everyone else can frick off and stay home.
This post was edited on 6/20/21 at 7:23 pm
Posted by CelticDog
Member since Apr 2015
42867 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 7:28 pm to
quote:

Why so many downvotes? What did I say which isn't true ? *


any statement that does not end in fellating trump gets downvoted.
you suggest trump has reason to fear entering NY state.
Posted by Kreg Jennings
Parts Unknown
Member since Aug 2007
3307 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 7:34 pm to
quote:

Desantis has most of the strong points of trump and few of the weaknesses. He's a great candidate


This.
Posted by FlyingTiger1955
Member since Jan 2019
5765 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 8:10 pm to
Republicans can't win the Presidency. There are too many states that are about to change from red to blue. Texas and North Carolina are changing rapidly. There are no blue states that will flip. No matter how good DeSantis may be, the Dems have a lock on the Presidency.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
111611 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 8:16 pm to
quote:

In WI, there were approximately 78K voters who voted for at least 1 Republican but didn't vote for Trump. In GA that number was between 120-130K. In AZ it was between 45-50K. In MI and PA it was over 150K.


Lol. Such a queer.
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
101668 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 8:19 pm to
Didn’t a whole lot more people “vote” for Biden and nothing else in all those places?
Posted by RCDfan1950
United States
Member since Feb 2007
35009 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 8:19 pm to
quote:

Desantis has most of the strong points of trump and few of the weaknesses. He's a great candidate


Trump broke new ground for the weak, DC swamp Republicans; he showed both the need and the way that if they would embrace, patriotic America would support them. He forced the Dems to show themselves as the wholly corrupt political machine that they have long been...while purporting to serve Constitutional Principle (which they despise irl).

DeSantis is a quick study; he picked it up quicker than most, as he was uniquely positioned in Florida to run with it.

I would wager that if Trump and DeSantis sat and talked about patriotic strategy going forward, Trump would not insist that he be the Candidate in '24...only that he got due credit for the amazing policy and political feats which he pulled off, under a barrage of criminal obstruction and corruption of the which this Nation has never seen.

One thing is for sure, there is NO going back to the political comity of the past; that ship has sailed. Whomever is the POTUS - of either Party - is going to be forced to pull the trigger, against oppositional forces within our Borders, of the which has never been the case in the history of our Nation. Pressure is building by the day. Whomever takes that Job, had damn well better be hated by half the populous, ready to make big time decisions, and willing to bear serious Karma.

The old days are gone.
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
80460 posts
Posted on 6/20/21 at 8:23 pm to
quote:

The GOP is useless, but they’re not stupid. 


Yes they are.
Posted by markinkaty
Katy Tx
Member since Dec 2019
4507 posts
Posted on 6/21/21 at 5:16 am to
millions of phantom votes were dropped by lefties and rinos: you can't read any trends from the 2020 election.
Posted by YouAre8Up
in a house
Member since Mar 2011
12792 posts
Posted on 6/21/21 at 7:19 am to
quote:

I don’t think there are many if any conservatives on here who would be disappointed in DeSantis, but it would be sweet to see Trump win it to watch the leftists do their Linda Blair impressions.


100% true
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
74290 posts
Posted on 6/21/21 at 7:21 am to
quote:

RammerJammer91


still melting
Posted by RammerJammer91
Member since Jan 2016
5195 posts
Posted on 6/21/21 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

Republicans can't win the Presidency. There are too many states that are about to change from red to blue. Texas and North Carolina are changing rapidly. There are no blue states that will flip. No matter how good DeSantis may be, the Dems have a lock on the Presidency.


Totally false that Republicans can't win the Presidency. Trump won in 2016. Additionally, on a precinct-by-precinct basis, there were approximately 5 million voters who voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but didn't vote for Trump. The votes are there, we just need a better messenger who can appeal to these voters, who typically vote Republican.

Ohio and Iowa are no longer swing states. Those are now safe R states.

Florida is lean-R. Trump won FL by approximately 371K votes and made major gains with hispanic and cuban voters in south Florida. He got 46% of the vote in Miami-Dade County, which is incredible for a Republican. 40% is usually the number that Republicans shoot for in Miami-Dade and Trump smashed that. Oh, and you know what else? There were over 100K voters in FL who voted for at least 1 down-ballot R but didn't vote for Trump. Those are voters who will be voting for DeSantis when he gets the nomination. And unlike states like TX and AZ, northerners who moved to FL last year actually smartened up and voted Republican. DeSantis mentioned on Ben Shapiro's show that he met so many northerners who just moved there that voted for Trump and down-ballot R's because they were tired of their former Governors locking everything down and killing businesses.

Let's take a look at the PVI of other states based on the most recent election that are still Republican-leaning


Arizona: R+4.15
Georgia: R+4.22
Michigan: R+1.67
Nevada: R+2.06
North Carolina: R+5.79
Pennsylvania: R+3.28
Texas: R+10.03
Wisconsin: R+3.82


Here are states that are slightly trending R:

Minnesota: D+2.67
New Mexico: D+6.29

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90880 posts
Posted on 6/21/21 at 2:52 pm to
Not gonna lie I think Desantis has shown to be a fighter and more competent in some ways than Trump. Desantis got the fraud machine under control in Florida BEFORE the election which is something Trump failed to do.

I’d choose him over Trump, as entertaining as Trump is and he was a good president there is no denying his brash behavior turned off moderate suburban republicans and energized the opposition. I think Desantis can win back those voters and the left won’t be motivated by pure hate like with Trump
Posted by Rogelio
Member since Jan 2021
935 posts
Posted on 6/21/21 at 2:54 pm to
quote:

it would be sweet to see Trump win it to watch the leftists do their Linda Blair impressions.



I would fap 24/7 for 4 years straight if that was to happen.
Posted by unotiger21
Member since Sep 2010
935 posts
Posted on 6/21/21 at 3:10 pm to
Agree with everything you said above.

My question is if Trump does run, how many people who didn’t vote for trump but voted R for other down ballot races would vote for him in 2024. I would expect him to gain some of those voters especially if the alternative is Kamala.

I’m of the belief though, if Biden is still alive and Trump announces he is running, that Biden will run again. I would be shocked if dems let a Trump vs Kamala matchup happen.
Posted by burke985
UGANDA
Member since Aug 2011
24674 posts
Posted on 6/21/21 at 3:16 pm to
As much as I like Ron we need trump to set up 8 years of Ron
Posted by RammerJammer91
Member since Jan 2016
5195 posts
Posted on 6/21/21 at 3:55 pm to
quote:

Agree with everything you said above.

My question is if Trump does run, how many people who didn’t vote for trump but voted R for other down ballot races would vote for him in 2024. I would expect him to gain some of those voters especially if the alternative is Kamala.

I’m of the belief though, if Biden is still alive and Trump announces he is running, that Biden will run again. I would be shocked if dems let a Trump vs Kamala matchup happen.


My guess is not many, or at the very least not enough that are needed to win. There were approximately 5.5 million voters in 2016 who split the ticket (voted for 1 R) in at least 1 race down-ballot but didn't vote for Trump. In 2020 he was only able to shave off 500K of that 5.5 million.

2024 is also a more favorable Senate map for us. WV is certain to flip, and I think OH will as well because the state is rapidly shifting red and Sherrod Brown underperformed the D margin nation-wide in 2018. Run someone like Mary Taylor against him to get the suburban women vote and he's toast. 2018 was D+8 and he won by 6.8, underperforming by 1.2 points. MT also has a good shot of flipping. Tester underperformed D's nation-wide in 2018 by 4.5 points.
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