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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:12 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:12 am to Chromdome35
The German statistics still baffles. Wtf are they doing so differently? Are they maybe being slower at reporting deaths?
3
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:34 am to BobBoucher
quote:It has been explained several times by the CDC that the number of confirmed cases are increasing fast now because the tests used to confirm COVID-19 infections are now being distributed in greater numbers than from a week ago. One graphic shown at Trumps press briefing Saturday showed the number of tests given have doubled from Thursday to the projected number on Saturday...just 2 days apart. So, of course, more new cases will be confirmed. That increase in confirmed new cases will begin to level off when the number of tests levels off.
It’s certainly disheartening to see the numbers still going up at this point,
Posted on 3/22/20 at 1:45 am to LSURussian
quote:Aye. Worth remembering our testing is *not* random sampled. They are given almost exclusively to symptomatic people.
One graphic shown at Trumps press briefing Saturday showed the number of tests given have doubled from Thursday to the projected number on Saturday...
It's not an election poll where they randomize people they call so the results are representative of an entire group.
The tests are just indicative of the people they've tested so far. They are telling us very little about the general population at this point.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 1:47 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 5:06 am to Taxing Authority
Also there is likely a backlog of patients being tested - people who were actually displaying symptoms of illness, but who were still waiting to be tested because there just weren't enough available tests. Now that more tests are being distributed, those patients are getting the first ones.
So there's a very high % of positivity results right now, with every new day of testing, and will be so for a bit until we start getting the supply of tests ahead of the curve, and we begin to test areas instead of direct symptomatic testing....
Without any vetted vaccine right now, all testing is, is a tool for containment and control. Without enough of the tests, there is no containment nor control. Not informed, anyways. It's just shooting in the dark for the most part....
So there's a very high % of positivity results right now, with every new day of testing, and will be so for a bit until we start getting the supply of tests ahead of the curve, and we begin to test areas instead of direct symptomatic testing....
Without any vetted vaccine right now, all testing is, is a tool for containment and control. Without enough of the tests, there is no containment nor control. Not informed, anyways. It's just shooting in the dark for the most part....
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 5:09 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:14 am to NorCali
The biggest early concentration was in the suburb of New Rochelle in Westchester County.
New York has developed its own testing ability and is now doing more testing than South Korea. There are at least two drive up test sites on Long Island that I'm aware of and probably more around the city and state.
That's at least a big part of reason NY has so many cases. Other states may not be as quick to see their problems.
The first death in the state was announced last Saturday morning. There have now been 76.
Winter break is the week of the Presidents' Day holiday. Some families take ski vacations in Europe that week. At least some of the spread had to have been from that.
Typical crowded conditions on commuter trains and subways must have contributed greatly.
New York has developed its own testing ability and is now doing more testing than South Korea. There are at least two drive up test sites on Long Island that I'm aware of and probably more around the city and state.
That's at least a big part of reason NY has so many cases. Other states may not be as quick to see their problems.
The first death in the state was announced last Saturday morning. There have now been 76.
Winter break is the week of the Presidents' Day holiday. Some families take ski vacations in Europe that week. At least some of the spread had to have been from that.
Typical crowded conditions on commuter trains and subways must have contributed greatly.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:55 am to Chromdome35
I am VERY interested to see how the rate of growth trends over the next 7 days. For the last 5 days we have averaged around 40% each day (some a little less, some a little more). If that continues to hold true, then in a week we will be up to 280,000+ cases.
Basically, at 40% growth, you are increasing by an order of magnitude a week, which would be some scary shite. Hoping that rate of growth will plateau soon, and will continue to watch this thread for updates. Chromdome, thanks for the work you are putting in
Basically, at 40% growth, you are increasing by an order of magnitude a week, which would be some scary shite. Hoping that rate of growth will plateau soon, and will continue to watch this thread for updates. Chromdome, thanks for the work you are putting in
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:59 am to bodask42
quote:
I am VERY interested to see how the rate of growth trends over the next 7 days. For the last 5 days we have averaged around 40% each day (some a little less, some a little more). If that continues to hold true, then in a week we will be up to 280,000+ cases.
Given that swine flu hit 60 million people, don't be shocked by anything less than 10 million.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:05 am to MF Doom
quote:
The German statistics still baffles. Wtf are they doing so differently?
If there is one thing the Germans are good at, it's gathering data and recording it accurately for posterity. More than likely, the death rate in Germany is low due to the fact that the Germans have identified the vast majority of people who have the virus. They have done a much better job at getting tests out to people.
My guess is their low mortality rate is not the anomaly but the average. Other nations, however, have not done as good a job at testing sick people and therefore the majority of their positive cases go undiagnosed.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:28 am to MF Doom
quote:
The German statistics still baffles. Wtf are they doing so differently? Are they maybe being slower at reporting deaths?
More thorough testing if I had to bet. Their death rate per capita is similar to ours.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:29 am to RollTide1987
9:30am EST and we already have the same number of deaths we had yesterday.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:43 am to TigerFanatic99
Yeah, we haven’t added any deaths since the reporting period switched over last night. They don’t start to seriously change until the next hour or so. We actually started last night with 46 deaths due to some oddity in how they’re reporting the data.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:45 am to the808bass
Critical cases also shot up. Guess that number is getting more accurate
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:46 am to Tiguar
Looks like it. It’s getting closer to what you’d expect anyway.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:55 am to the808bass
quote:
We actually started last night with 46 deaths due to some oddity in how they’re reporting the data
Maybe it's possible the site is glitched and the new deaths counter did not reset.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:57 am to TigerFanatic99
Looking at the yesterday data is funky as well now. I know at one point it showed over 7k nee cases, but looking at it now it only shows 4800. I'm starting to really question the accuracy of that site.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 8:58 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 8:58 am to TigerFanatic99
Yeah. It showed over 8,000 for a hot minute and then reset around 7,000, bounced around a time or two and then settled at the number that’s there now.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:01 am to TigerFanatic99
It could be that it’s harder to get data from the CDC on the weekend, too. The CDC doesn’t update their counter over the weekend.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:01 am to the808bass
Andrew Ginn's article has been deleted. That was a fun one to follow.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:07 am to EZE Tiger Fan
Posted on 3/22/20 at 9:11 am to the808bass
Correct. He has been updating daily, but I don't think he will be allowed to update it any longer.
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