re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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We’re not finishing with good news tonight.

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I do think this is still, largely, a reflection of the testing logjam breaking through and mentally I spread those cases out over the past few days - ditto for the deaths, but none of those mental gymnastics alter the net state of where we're at.

I still think we're in agreement that we will start putting this behind us in 3 to 4 weeks, but how bumpy that is going to be (and how costly, particularly in lives) remains to be seen.

Fingers still firmly crossed for everyone out there. This is still not looking to be too bad for even 80% of Americans who have it or will get it, but that does not make it bit better for those with serious cases and, obviously, the fatalities (or their families).

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I spread those cases out over the past few days - ditto for the deaths

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Yeah. And I thought we were three to four weeks out of knowing we’d turned the corner during last week. So nothing has changed there. And by the time we know we’ve turned the corner, we will be in much better shape.

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I don’t know what your angle is here. This has become a bit more personal over the last several days for me. I’ve been texting with my brother about a mutual friend who is positive. His last two nights, his O2 levels have dropped below 90 and he wants to be hospitalized now. He’s in a lot of pain and his wife is tired and they’re emotionally drained. They’re in day 11.

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I don't know you, and I never will, but I'm pulling for your friend. Full stop.

This is the hard part about political warfare. There are count on both sides of the aisle, but mainly it's just decent people landing on one end of the spectrum or another, for whatever reason.

Godspeed to your loved ones and be safe.

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Concernng to me is the fact that deaths are at 195% of the recoveries.

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Well, I chalk that up to a lag in testing, clearing and reporting the recoveries - probably the lowest priority in the trenches. If a person who is positive is improving, then quarantine is the only consequence for not testing and clearing more quickly.

I don't consider the "serious" cases number on worldmeters to have any value or significance at all. It's a placeholder until proven otherwise.

Friend in Guatemala just posted that they have a 4 PM to 4 AM curfew enacted. Most of the country is “shut down.” Her words.

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Concernng to me is the fact that deaths are at 195% of the recoveries.

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I would not put too much stock in to “recoveries” or “critical”

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My graphs are just a simple representation of the date & numbers.

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You're doing a man's (or woman's, or however you choose to self-identify) job on this. I certainly appreciate it and I use this thread as my primary resource to track this thing.

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I do this multiple times a day

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And thank you for doing it.

Death rate really up, that is concerning. The # of deaths is roughly equal to the total number of cases back on 3/6. If the increase in deaths follows the same growth rate (I'm not at all sure it will, that is yet to be seen) then 15 days from now we would have 25K deaths and growing.

I'm contemplating trying to calculate the number of serious cases by taking the mortality rate and working backward based on the % of mortalities vs. active cases from other countries. The question, which country to use, or the world average?





NOTE: Updated as of 11 PM CST, These are final numbers for the day. I will update again tomorrow.

NOTE: The growth rate numbers for the day are correct.

I was just thinking.

I'd be really interested in a study of other diseases during this time.

With everybody being cleaner and all that, you should see drops across the board, which should free up more resources.