re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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NY is killin’ it with lower numbers. That is very encouraging

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Looking for confirmation today, and the early numbers seem to back that up. NJ is very encouraging as well. Still glad that NY was pulled as it might be giving a falsely rosey outlook for the rest of the country in overall declines.

This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

4/18/20 UPDATE: I am changing these updates to show the data for the US without NY State numbers included. The information and graphs presented in my updates going forward will all be from the perspective of omitting NY State results. All of the original data is still present on the tracker linked above

Here you go


The scale difference between the two data sets is large enough to require a separate axis.

Wish there were a way to estimate lag time, etc.

My curiosity is with the percent of positive tests versus total tests and what that curve would look like.

To your point, that’s a wide gap that likely wouldn’t be meaningful on a single bar graph.

I’m on mobile. Do your sheets allow us to copy and paste to excel, etc, so we can play around with the data?

ETA: Thanks again. You deserve a Dundie for this.

I think it would be really valuable to chart out how many cases are confined - nursing home or prison. I would guess somewhere from 25-40% of new cases are in a confined setting.

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So, what is the real mortality rate based on the new antibody numbers? I thought I saw something like .2%-.37%, but I can't find them anywhere.

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It is still much too early to nail down the "real" mortality rate that closely. I don't even think the false positive rate on the antibody tests is known with any accuracy.

IMO, the only thing we can say with certainty about the mortality rate is that it is greater than 0.12%. I base this number on the fact that we have at least 3 populations known to have already lost that percentage of their *total* population to covid. So even if 100% of these populations have already been infected, the IFR can be no less than 0.12%. They are:

NYC - 10,500 deaths / 8.4 million
Lombardy, Italy - 12,500 deaths / 10 million
San Marino (tiny country within Italy, but outside Lombardy) - 40 deaths / 34,000

These numbers will obviously continue to rise, which will bring the 0.12% up. Also perhaps obviously, the infection rate in these populations is surely not already 100%, which means the IFR *must* be higher than 0.12%. I just think it's hard to determine the infection rate right now.

My best guess is IFR will end up around 0.5%.

Big death numbers today...The highest yet outside of NY. Reporting lag, reclassification of data?

WoM says this about today's numbers.

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In accordance with new CDC guidelines:

New York: the numbers shown below include probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases for the same number) as reported by New York City
Maryland: includes probable deaths, as reported by the Department of Health (Section: "COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland")
Wyoming: includes probable cases, as reported by the Department of Health
Most state reports and dashboards (such as Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Missouri, etc.) lag behind or show incomplete data with respect to the data shown by individual counties on their official websites and dashboards, which is what we collect and aggregate when possible to show the most updated and accurate number in the table below. We will soon publish state-level pages with graphs and the breakdown by county.

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Reporting lag, reclassification of data?

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Louisiana lags every weekend with Tuesday bringing the highest death numbers of any day of the week. We all already noticed that trend and it sucks. It sure makes it harder to get very excited about a downward trend when it keeps getting a bump.

Total patients on vents fell below 300 statewide...big plus. Things are definitely better.

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probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases

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This is a problem. It's becoming more common it seems as more States are doing it now.

You can't guess when it comes to this stuff.

You have a lot of people that think they have it but are testing negative. So guessing if someone has it or not and actually reporting it as a positive shouldn't be happening. It's disappointing.