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Posted on 4/21/20 at 4:39 pm to Chromdome35
quote:Tuesday obviously has a big jump from Monday, due to a clear reporting lag; however, I was expected more like a 20% jump, but I think with the remaining states and California updating later in the day, we’re looking at a 2700-2800 deaths which is more like a 40% increase.
Big death numbers today...The highest yet outside of NY. Reporting lag, reclassification of data?
So I think today, or possibly tomorrow, will be the peak total. Since worldmeter updated New York’s additional deaths that were added last week to correspond more closely with their correct day of the death, the previous peak was 2618 last Wednesday.
So I think we’re looking at 90,000 total deaths at a minimum now, but I think we might push 120,000, even more depending on how it spreads once we open things back up and we progress through summer.
This post was edited on 4/21/20 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 4/21/20 at 4:40 pm to tgrgrd00
quote:It's really not that big a problem.
This is a problem. It's becoming more common it seems as more States are doing it now.
You can't guess when it comes to this stuff.
You have a lot of people that think they have it but are testing negative. So guessing if someone has it or not and actually reporting it as a positive shouldn't be happening. It's disappointing.
People see the word "probable" and take it to mean a "guess". And while there is a degree of uncertainty, it is nowhere in the same vicinity as your buddy with a cough and a fever that thought he had covid. Now, if your buddy has a cough and a fever, then has trouble breathing, then within a couple weeks he's dead... he probably had covid.
It's really not the stretch people are making it out to be. It's not statistically problematic, and it shouldn't be disappointing.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 4:55 pm to tgrgrd00
quote:Deaths, particularly due to complex illnesses, are always a bit of a guess. The flu death estimates aren’t based on confirmed flu positive deaths either. The census still has to go through a series of complex adjustments (under reporting in certain areas by certain demographics, incomplete forms, etc.), and that’s supposed to be completed by everyone by law.
This is a problem. It's becoming more common it seems as more States are doing it now.
You can't guess when it comes to this stuff.
As it pertains to COVID-19, we’re clearly under testing individuals, and a bunch of individuals who weren’t tested displaces the hallmark symptoms and causes of death as a COVID patient.
In fact, when in NYC, where they added probably deaths, there have been thousands of deaths above expectation, 68% more in fact. If even, 1/4th of those are COVID-19, (1000 out of 4000), that’s a lot of extra deaths on top of the confirmed and probable deaths.
When it’s all said and done, the estimates of COVID-19 deaths could be upward revised by 1.5 to 2.5 times in the US alone and undoubtedly far higher globally since many nations lack the ability to test pretty much anybody.
If we’re accepting that infection totals are anywhere from 5-50 times higher than the confirmed cases totals, then that undoubtedly means we’re missing a number of deaths because they weren’t tested.
In fact, the more infections we’re missing, the more deaths we’re likely missing as well. So if we’re missing 10 times the infections, maybe we’re missing 1.5 times the deaths, but if we’re missing 50 times the number of infections, then maybe we’re missing 4 times the number of deaths.
This post was edited on 4/21/20 at 5:01 pm
Posted on 4/21/20 at 5:02 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
Louisiana lags every weekend with Tuesday
I think some states are waiting for county coroners, so deaths from sometime on Friday until sometime on Monday are probably getting pushed into Tuesday reporting.
I noticed Missouri’s deaths over the weekend were very low. Like one on Sunday.
This post was edited on 4/21/20 at 5:03 pm
Posted on 4/21/20 at 7:34 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
So if we’re missing 10 times the infections, maybe we’re missing 1.5 times the deaths, but if we’re missing 50 times the number of infections, then maybe we’re missing 4 times the number of deaths.
That makes sense statistically, but it's hard to imagine in the climate of hypersensitivity about every single death reported, that we could have say 4x the deaths. I can't imagine an extra 4,000 deaths in LA would be unnoticed and not being trumpeted all over social media and the like.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 7:54 pm to OldManRiver
quote:That’s why I don’t think the number is off by a factor of 50. That would put Louisiana’s infected population at 26.7% as of today, while France is predicting that 5.7% of their population will be infected on May 11th.
That makes sense statistically, but it's hard to imagine in the climate of hypersensitivity about every single death reported, that we could have say 4x the deaths. I can't imagine an extra 4,000 deaths in LA would be unnoticed and not being trumpeted all over social media and the like.
But I could see Louisiana having 5-10 times as many cases (up to 5.3% infected), but is missing 50 to 70 percent of the of the deaths.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 8:04 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
4/18/20 UPDATE: I am changing these updates to show the data for the US without NY State numbers included. The information and graphs presented in my updates going forward will all be from the perspective of omitting NY State results. All of the original data is still present on the tracker linked above
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
4/18/20 UPDATE: I am changing these updates to show the data for the US without NY State numbers included. The information and graphs presented in my updates going forward will all be from the perspective of omitting NY State results. All of the original data is still present on the tracker linked above
Posted on 4/21/20 at 8:11 pm to Chromdome35
New confirmed daily case trend continues to go south. Not surprising as it gets warmer out.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 8:12 pm to Chromdome35
A very strong spike in the numbers, it must be Tuesday.
New Cases seem to have leveled off in the mid 20K a day range. Deaths really spike up with 2.8K, 2K outside of New York. The next few days will give us a much better idea of the trend.
Testing @ 151K for the whole US with testing outside of NY accounting for 136K of the total.
Outside of NY Cumulative positive test % is 15.6% with today's 23K positives at 16.9% positive.
Mortality continues to climb, I'm ready to see this number start going down.
New Cases seem to have leveled off in the mid 20K a day range. Deaths really spike up with 2.8K, 2K outside of New York. The next few days will give us a much better idea of the trend.
Testing @ 151K for the whole US with testing outside of NY accounting for 136K of the total.
Outside of NY Cumulative positive test % is 15.6% with today's 23K positives at 16.9% positive.
Mortality continues to climb, I'm ready to see this number start going down.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 8:26 pm to Chromdome35
The weekend bump was strong today
Posted on 4/21/20 at 9:10 pm to BamaPig
quote:
The weekend bump was strong today
Largest number yet
Posted on 4/21/20 at 9:23 pm to doubleb
Why don’t the total US deaths match worldometer?
Nm...see your 4/18 note
Nm...see your 4/18 note
This post was edited on 4/21/20 at 9:25 pm
Posted on 4/21/20 at 10:37 pm to doubleb
quote:But this was actually the lowest percentage (44.6%) increase from Monday compared to the last 4 weeks (48.3% to 54.8% with a 50.2% average). So it was 11.2% lower than the average.
Largest number yet
Since the average increase on Wednesday over those previous 4 week is only 6.8% if it’s 11.2% lower than the average tomorrow (94.9%) then we might get a decent drop (2660) than usual (2995 at 6.8%).
It’s possible that today was the peak, and if not, I think we’re near it and it will happen by Friday (before the weekend underreporting).
Once we hit the peak, the issue is how slow is the decline compared to the increase to the peak. Data from Spain and Italy show a much slower decline on the backside, and since our peak was less rapid (more of a plateau) indicating the front end was a fatter-tailed distribution, then I think decline will be potentially slower.
So if the backside represents 50% of the deaths, then we’re looking at 90,000ish deaths but if declines slower and represents 70% then we’re looking at more than 150,000 deaths. I think we’ll end up between 100,000 and 120,000 but fat-tailed risk is on the higher end (and even higher) unfortunately. So if it follows Italy’s pattern, then 150,000-200,000 is possible.
This post was edited on 4/21/20 at 10:42 pm
Posted on 4/21/20 at 10:41 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:I really hope it comes in under 100k but it is not looking like it will happen.
So if the backside represents 50% of the deaths, then we’re looking at 90,000ish deaths but if declines slower and represents 70% then we’re looking at more than 150,000 deaths. I think we’ll end up between 100,000 and 120,000 but fat-tailed risk is on the higher end (and even higher) unfortunately. So if it follows Italy’s pattern, then 150,000-180,000 is possible.
Very frustrating.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 11:05 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Its really going to depend on what happens after things loosen up. If we see a second wave, who knows where this could end up.
If the second wave is muted or doesn't happen, then <100K is possible.
If the second wave is muted or doesn't happen, then <100K is possible.
Posted on 4/22/20 at 8:07 am to buckeye_vol
I was hoping we’d peaked last week.
I think we are seeing the virus impacting middle America a little more now.
I think we are seeing the virus impacting middle America a little more now.
Posted on 4/22/20 at 8:21 am to Chromdome35
quote:
New Cases seem to have leveled off in the mid 20K a day range. Deaths really spike up with 2.8K, 2K outside of New York. The next few days will give us a much better idea of the trend.
That’s frustrating. Just as we felt deaths was starting to turn and NY was doing well.
Posted on 4/22/20 at 9:03 am to Chromdome35
Seems like the recoveries are being grotesquely ignored in the reportings.
Posted on 4/22/20 at 9:07 am to Chromdome35
for Georgia, was the negative number on 4/20 a mistake? How does that happen? -2,000?
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