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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:57 am to Winston Cup
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:57 am to Winston Cup
Winston,
There is another graph at the bottom of the tracker that shows the # of new deaths plotted against the cumulative deaths.
It exposes the volatility of the death numbers pretty well. One of the things I've noticed (and I don't know if it's significant or not) is that we seem to see three day patterns of inconsistent data.
Maybe someone smart can explain if this is meaningful or not.
There is another graph at the bottom of the tracker that shows the # of new deaths plotted against the cumulative deaths.
It exposes the volatility of the death numbers pretty well. One of the things I've noticed (and I don't know if it's significant or not) is that we seem to see three day patterns of inconsistent data.
Maybe someone smart can explain if this is meaningful or not.
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 11:58 am
1
Posted on 4/3/20 at 12:40 pm to Chromdome35
Feel like today is setting up to be pretty ugly....
So far toda:
April 03, 2020, 17:23 GMT
20629 new cases and 716 new deaths
So far toda:
April 03, 2020, 17:23 GMT
20629 new cases and 716 new deaths
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:00 pm to TeLeFaWx
quote:
I think I saw 50% of people come off the ventilator in a good way.
My late wife's sister is an ICU nurse in NOLA. In speaking to her she said once on a vent its 50/50.
My girlfriend says about half the patients she has sent to ICU have died, so that seems to line up with what I have heard anecdotally.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:47 pm to BlackAdam
Current cases & stay-at-home/shelter-in-place status per state.
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 4/3/20 at 1:56 pm to GatorReb
quote:
Feel like today is setting up to be pretty ugly....
So far toda:
April 03, 2020, 17:23 GMT
20629 new cases and 716 new deaths
Yeah but that includes most of the states with big totals. If you take the states that haven't yet reported anything today and assume their totals will be the same as yesterday you'd get 963 deaths, which is actually lower than yesterday's total.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 2:03 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
Current cases & stay-at-home/shelter-in-place status per state.
Not sure this means anything. Each state's guidelines are different. Some of Alabama's state restrictions are actually more stringent than other states with "stay-at-home" orders. But because they don't use those magic words it's somehow different.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 2:06 pm to TideCPA
Just got back from the grocery store. Everything seemed normal. Glad this mess is finally starting to die down and we are getting prepared to be ready to go by Easter.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 2:11 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas
Louisiana
New York
Georgia
Florida
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas
Louisiana
New York
Georgia
Florida
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 2:13 pm to Chromdome35
When will the CFR start to tick down again?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 2:15 pm to BarnHater
quote:
Just got back from the grocery store. Everything seemed normal. Glad this mess is finally starting to die down and we are getting prepared to be ready to go by Easter.
If everybody would just go to the grocery store, we could break this thing my Monday!
Posted on 4/3/20 at 2:15 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Likely 1 more day or so
It has upticked for 13 days. I would think there is a 14-16 day lag on deaths from original cases, so after those deaths are finished up it should start trending down again
It has upticked for 13 days. I would think there is a 14-16 day lag on deaths from original cases, so after those deaths are finished up it should start trending down again
Posted on 4/3/20 at 2:31 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
When will the CFR start to tick down again?
Is the CFR being tracked in this thread?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 2:37 pm to Magician2
quote:
Is the CFR being tracked in this thread?
What do you think we mean by "CFR"?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 2:48 pm to Magician2
Yes, it's labeled as Mortality Rate, but the calculation is the same (Total deaths / Total Cases).
Posted on 4/3/20 at 2:59 pm to Chromdome35
I'm looking forward to recoveries doubling up deaths soon, and never turning back. Won't be long before recoveries triple the deaths.
Posted on 4/3/20 at 3:38 pm to Chromdome35
finally back to logarithmic! slope broken and I think we'll see a peak soon.. 
Posted on 4/3/20 at 3:53 pm to b-rab2
Hope the dinner update isn't too bad
Hope we stick around 1000
Hope we stick around 1000
Posted on 4/3/20 at 4:35 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:Case Fatality Rate
What do you think we mean by "CFR"?
Posted on 4/3/20 at 4:37 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/3/20 at 5:17 pm to Chromdome35
I found additional data on the COVID Tracking Project site.
This data includes current hospitalizations, ICU cases and Vent cases. Looking at the data, it appears incomplete to me.
I have updated the tracker with this information.
This data includes current hospitalizations, ICU cases and Vent cases. Looking at the data, it appears incomplete to me.
I have updated the tracker with this information.
This post was edited on 4/3/20 at 5:19 pm
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