re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

quote:

---

It depends on which is capped: administering or running the test in the lab. Backlog shouldn’t necessarily matter if actually running the test is the limiting factor as some have suggested

---

Good point.

quote:

---

Backlog shouldn’t necessarily matter if actually running the test is the limiting factor as some have suggested

---

Not ultimately, but it may skew the numbers as to when the case was identified, when those folks were infected, those folks' incubation period, etc.

From a reporting standpoint, with such long delays, we would be in an interesting spot if the official tracking starts going back to correct past numbers (based on test samples taken up to 10 days ago - which might as well be a year ago in normal time) because folks will think that is hinky (and a moving, evolving number rather than fixed historical data for several weeks). Reporting them on the date the test is finally processed is going to skew new case (and, indirectly, new death) data to the "right" on the bell curve charts.

Hopefully we learn something after all these trillions of dollars, thousands of lives lost and millions ruined.

"Don't trust the Chinese" seems simultaneously rational and racist. That's the first bullet on my AAR, though.

quote:

---

This begs the question:

If we are administering the same/similar amount of tests every day, why do we still get numerically more cases every day over the last raise?

Example: 20k cases one day, + 24k cases the next day. Both days had same amount of tests.

Are we getting better at identifying good candidates to test who are likely positive.....or is a higher proportion of the population getting infected every day. Or both

---

The larger the backlog, the more they prioritize high risk samples. Unfortunately some states in the rural midwest appear to be testing everyone so that their positive rate stays low.

And that wouldn't matter if the government used date of collection rather than date of report. But that dog is out of the bag.

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.

quote:

---

Unfortunately some states in the rural midwest appear to be testing everyone so that their positive rate stays low.

---

I’m trying to wrap my head around how anyone could think testing a larger number of folks is a bad idea?

A couple of people who reportedly work in a hospital (Louisiana) with covid pts says that they expect to see a spike in deaths.

What % of those on vents are estimated to not make it? I know that Louisiana as of yesterdays numbers had 507 on vents.

quote:

---

What % of those on vents are estimated to not make it? I know that Louisiana as of yesterdays numbers had 507 on vents.

---

I think I saw 50% of people come off the ventilator in a good way.

quote:

---

From a reporting standpoint, with such long delays, we would be in an interesting spot if the official tracking starts going back to correct past numbers (based on test samples taken up to 10 days ago - which might as well be a year ago in normal time) because folks will think that is hinky (and a moving, evolving number rather than fixed historical data for several weeks). Reporting them on the date the test is finally processed is going to skew new case (and, indirectly, new death) data to the "right" on the bell curve charts.

---

Yeah. I think that'll be done at some point. We have to remember the data that's released is "retail" data. If I get some time today I may look for some raw data sources.

It's on the tracker page