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re: COVID was smeared all over Metro-NYC for weeks and weeks... 1/10 of 1% death rate?
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:10 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:10 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
Here is my point again (Since you seem to be lost):
My point hasn't changed. New Yorker's had been swimming in COVID-19 sheddings from January thru March, yet the death rate (total population divided by COVID deaths) in Metropolitan NYC is in the range of 1/10th of 1%.
One of the interesting things about discourse is that you can make more than one point as part of any exchange. In fact, you've made multiple in all your posts, as have I. As best I can gather, it seems your overarching argument is that the subways are the cause of it all in NYC. I disagree with that, as I've noted twice, due to other cities with tons of dense light rail ridership that haven't had the same issues, as well as the geographic spread of COVID in the city not lining up with what a "the trains did it" theory. For instance, referencing your picture below it's not people in midtown who are dying in relatively large numbers. But that is not the only point in which we are in disagreement. One of the others, and indeed the subject of most of our exchanges has been the accuracy of my statement, and I'll quote myself again,
quote:
an outsized portion of the COVID activities is happening where the trains are less present, Queens and the Bronx.
You have in turn disagreed with that statement, said it "not a revelation, then disagreed with it again. At this very moment, I don't know where you stand on it. It's easy to get lost when you debate someone who is so often in conflict with themseleves...
quote:
My point hasn't changed. New Yorker's had been swimming in COVID-19 sheddings from January thru March, yet the death rate (total population divided by COVID deaths) in Metropolitan NYC is in the range of 1/10th of 1%.
If you recall, I didn't really push back on this other than to note that tens of thousands of people dead in a few weeks is a lot. Agree to disagree, I guess...
quote:
This is a serious flu-like virus, but not the mega-disaster sold to us by MSM and the CDC/NIH/IHME/WHO/Gates Foundation, etc.
This, I suppose also turns on whether you think 60,000 people dead in one month is a big deal. Again, agree to disagree...
This post was edited on 5/2/20 at 9:43 pm
2
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:45 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
an outsized portion of the COVID activities is happening where the trains are less present, Queens and the Bronx.
That is a simplistic and silly statement. People who live in the outer boroughs are far more dependent on subways than people who live in Manhattan. The subway is the only affordable way to get in and out of the outer boroughs (and by far, the fastest - nothing short of a helicopter comes close).
For people who live in "the City" (Manhattan) the subway is the transportation of last resort. Walking is likely the most common way to get somewhere. Buses go everywhere. And taxis are affordable for almost anyone - particularly if friends split the fare. And if Manhattanite's do take the subway, it is seldom, if ever, during rush hour.
You really don't understand the city at all. But like almost all folks from the suburbs, you are 100% certain that you do. Cheers!
This post was edited on 5/2/20 at 8:50 pm
Posted on 5/2/20 at 9:25 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
That is a simplistic and silly statement. People who live in the outer boroughs are far more dependent on subways than people who live in Manhattan. The subway is the only affordable way to get in and out of the outer boroughs (and by far, the fastest - nothing short of a helicopter comes close).
Ridership in Manhattan has fallen off a cliff since early March as compared to the outer boroughs. Like you said, they're more dependent on public transportation. So we agree so far. But if people from the Bronx and Queens are making up a plurality of riders even in Manhattan (which you imply) why would the drop here be so much steeper than everywhere else? I'd posit that a plurality of those missing riders are folks, like me, who live in Manhattan, but have found other means to travel.
Now remember, people didn't begin to avoid the subway until first week of March at the earliest. But mortality has always been more concentrated in the Bronx in particular. If it were just the trains this would not be the case as Manhattan residents were still packed in trains in March.
quote:
For people who live in "the City" (Manhattan) the subway is the transportation of last resort. Walking is likely the most common way to get somewhere. Buses go everywhere.
Well that depends on how far you have to go, how long you have to get there, and frankly, how nice the weather is.
quote:
and taxis are affordable for almost anyone - particularly if friends split the fare.
Taxi? It's been legit years since I've been inside of one of those. I understand the city enough to get an Uber...
Posted on 5/2/20 at 9:32 pm to tigertex1992
quote:
175000 cases
Not even close. That my be a portion of what we know of. Your numbers are misleading.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 9:42 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
it seems your overarching argument is that the subways are the cause of it all in NYC. I disagree with that
If you don't think cramming tens of thousands of people into metal tubes during a viral outbreak was a huge part of the problem then this entire discussion is ridiculous.
By this thought process celebrating Chinese New Year with parades and having Mardi Gras were great ideas.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 9:53 pm to longwayfromLA
So. your considered opinion appears to be that:
Crowded subways are NOT Petri dishes for COVID-19
And that the endless stream of stainless steel everything in the subway system is of no consequence in spreading the virus.
And hundreds of random strangers you bump up against every day couldn't possibly transfer COVID
And sneezer's and cougher's in small packed subway cars wouldn't matter all that much.
And your proof is that London, Paris and Tokyo have more track? We can leave out Tokyo. They didn't permit a Canada to re-route Wuhan passengers into their city like NYC/Cuomo/DiBlasio did. And London/Paris don't seem that far off NYC's numbers.
Bottom line for your analysis?: Subways? No problem?
AND, the fact that the NYC death rate is 1/10th of 1% of the population is NOT remarkable? IMO, it points out that the COVID-19 raging, explosive, out-of-control virus that we were led to believe that it was.
Crowded subways are NOT Petri dishes for COVID-19
And that the endless stream of stainless steel everything in the subway system is of no consequence in spreading the virus.
And hundreds of random strangers you bump up against every day couldn't possibly transfer COVID
And sneezer's and cougher's in small packed subway cars wouldn't matter all that much.
And your proof is that London, Paris and Tokyo have more track? We can leave out Tokyo. They didn't permit a Canada to re-route Wuhan passengers into their city like NYC/Cuomo/DiBlasio did. And London/Paris don't seem that far off NYC's numbers.
Bottom line for your analysis?: Subways? No problem?
AND, the fact that the NYC death rate is 1/10th of 1% of the population is NOT remarkable? IMO, it points out that the COVID-19 raging, explosive, out-of-control virus that we were led to believe that it was.
This post was edited on 5/2/20 at 10:06 pm
Posted on 5/2/20 at 10:00 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
20,000 COVID-19 deaths in that area
This is absolutely false by all measures.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 10:06 pm to FightingTigers138
quote:
This is absolutely false by all measures.
"all measures"? Yet you list none. Lamest comment on this thread so far.
We have a winner!!
This post was edited on 5/2/20 at 10:10 pm
Posted on 5/2/20 at 10:10 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
So. your considered opinion appears to be that:
Crowded subways are NOT Petri dishes for COVID-19
And that the endless stream of stainless steel everything in the subway system is of no consequence in spreading the virus.
And hundreds of random strangers you bump up against every day couldn't possibly transfer COVID
And sneezer's and cougher's in small packed subway cars wouldn't matter all that much.
And your proof is that London, Paris and Tokyo have more track? We can leave out Tokyo. They didn't permit a Canada to re-route Wuhan passengers into their city like NYC/Cuomo/DiBlasio did. And London/Paris don't seem that far off NYC's numbers.
Bottom line for your analysis?: Subways? No problem?
No. That is not my opinion at all. That is something you just made up. Literally the first sentence of my first comment in our exchange on this topic was.
quote:
This is a factor but not a determinative one.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 10:14 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
This is a factor but not a determinative one.
The prime factor, IMO.
Let's hear your opinion - Give us some "determinative" ones.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 10:25 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
The prime factor, IMO.
Let's hear your opinion - Give us some "determinative" ones.
Why things are bad in some places and not others?
- the relative timing of mitigation efforts as compared to the penetration of the virus in the population
- the planning, persistence, and capacity of the community health/government apparatus
- luck
- population penetration of hypertension, smokers, diabetes, and elderly people
- whether the location is a hub for travel, in particular, international travel
- presence of prisons, meatpacking plants, and nursing homes relative to population
- more luck
Posted on 5/2/20 at 10:48 pm to longwayfromLA
To me, the most remarkable lesson from the NYC Metro area COVID experience is this:
How little COVID-19 impacted NYC in relation to how devastating the impact could have been - given the 4 million+ people who ride horribly overcrowded subway cars at least twice a day, every day.
If we believe the NY State Health Department antibody study, then about 24% of NYC residents contracted the COVID virus. That number applied to the NYC Metro area population (20 mil) puts the infected, but recovered, populace at 4,800,000.
There was indeed a tragic loss of life in NYC since March. But it could have been far worse.
How little COVID-19 impacted NYC in relation to how devastating the impact could have been - given the 4 million+ people who ride horribly overcrowded subway cars at least twice a day, every day.
If we believe the NY State Health Department antibody study, then about 24% of NYC residents contracted the COVID virus. That number applied to the NYC Metro area population (20 mil) puts the infected, but recovered, populace at 4,800,000.
There was indeed a tragic loss of life in NYC since March. But it could have been far worse.
Posted on 5/3/20 at 2:26 am to shawnlsu
quote:
seem
Posted on 5/3/20 at 2:47 am to Buckeye Jeaux
So why aren't you including the Northern and Central Jersey along with Western Connecticut deaths? You do know those places count as metro NY, correct?
That's an additional 8,000 to 10000 deaths.
The 4 most congested places in the US are in NJ but are considered NYC metro.
Regardless,the NYC,N Jersey,Western Connecticut areas are the very worst places on Earth for the CV infection. (Who knows about Wuhan)
That's an additional 8,000 to 10000 deaths.
The 4 most congested places in the US are in NJ but are considered NYC metro.
Regardless,the NYC,N Jersey,Western Connecticut areas are the very worst places on Earth for the CV infection. (Who knows about Wuhan)
Posted on 5/3/20 at 3:23 am to gthog61
quote:
Without NYC this wouldn't equal the flu, gonna be a lot of effort to keep people from realizing that
With all the bleeding heart stuff out about social distancing and lockdowns to save lives, there's a hell of a lot of explaining to do over every other flu/pneumonia that we never shut for either. NPR did a show trying to justify 30 MM unemployment is alright to save a few folks.
Posted on 5/3/20 at 3:36 am to gthog61
quote:A really bad flu season would be 80k deaths, or about 240 per million population.
Without NYC this wouldn't equal the flu, gonna be a lot of effort to keep people from realizing that.
Covid deaths per million so far:
NY 1242
NJ 872
CT 680
MA 563
LA 427
MI 404
Shouldn't take much effort at all to keep people from realizing something that is false. At least not rational people.
Posted on 5/3/20 at 3:50 am to Korkstand
Lmao as of April 11, New York State had reported a total of 143 influenza cases. This after starting out the year fearing threat of the worst flu season ever. The lowest drop from a January start like the one New York had this year was to somewhere between 12 and 13 thousand cases by April but this year they’re under 200? Yea man keep pushing your BS.
This post was edited on 5/3/20 at 3:52 am
Posted on 5/3/20 at 4:00 am to Korkstand
quote:Right.
A really bad flu season would be 80k deaths, or about 240 per million population.
Covid deaths per million so far:
NYC has done a terrible job, The premise was without NYC though.
Without NYC US DPM would be ~150 or about 60% of Flu.
Of course the CV19 death totals are not complete, NYC cannot be excluded, and we don't socially distance and shelter at home for the flu.
As I've said since Feb, IMO the US CV19 CFR will end up ~0.7%, which is 5X-10X worse than flu depending on the season and strain.
Posted on 5/3/20 at 4:08 am to Madking
quote:What the hell are you talking about? I don't know what data you're looking at, but it is either false or you are severely misinterpreting it.
Lmao as of April 11, New York State had reported a total of 143 influenza cases. This after starting out the year fearing threat of the worst flu season ever. The lowest drop from a January start like the one New York had this year was to somewhere between 12 and 13 thousand cases by April but this year they’re under 200? Yea man keep pushing your BS.
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