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CNN reports only D+3 generic Congressional ballot.How is this possible w/ redistricting?
Posted on 5/12/26 at 11:36 am
Posted on 5/12/26 at 11:36 am
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Shouldn’t the Repbulicanrs being in control of Congress be a done deal with the redistricting count?
This post was edited on 5/12/26 at 11:51 am
13
Posted on 5/12/26 at 11:38 am to Covingtontiger77
Never discount the GOP's ability to frick up a wet dream. If there is a way for them to screw this up and barely win a one seat majority they will happily find it.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 11:38 am to Covingtontiger77
Polymarket says otherwise. Republicans + 7.
This post was edited on 5/12/26 at 11:55 am
Posted on 5/12/26 at 11:38 am to Covingtontiger77
It will be..... I never agreed that losing Republicans midterms was an assured outcome. We can't depend on historical data based on "typical" outcomes, we are not living in typical times.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 11:49 am to Covingtontiger77
quote:Does anyone actually expect members of congress to confess their corruption??
generic confessional ballot.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 11:53 am to Covingtontiger77
To win the House, even without redistricting, the Dems need a +4 or so. With redistricting it is probably more like +6 or +7.
Dems at +2 or +3 is essentially a tie.
Republicans gained 9 seats in 2022. On this day in 2022 the RC average of generic ballot polls had Republicans up 3.8%. Republicans ended up winning the total vote by 2.7%
In 2018 Democrats were up 5.8% on May 12, 2018. Democrats went on to win 42 seats and the total vote by 8.6%
While the map is very different, if you start seeing D+10 or so then some of these redrawn districts could backfire for Reublicans.
Dems at +2 or +3 is essentially a tie.
Republicans gained 9 seats in 2022. On this day in 2022 the RC average of generic ballot polls had Republicans up 3.8%. Republicans ended up winning the total vote by 2.7%
In 2018 Democrats were up 5.8% on May 12, 2018. Democrats went on to win 42 seats and the total vote by 8.6%
While the map is very different, if you start seeing D+10 or so then some of these redrawn districts could backfire for Reublicans.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 12:21 pm to Covingtontiger77
Which means in a generic contest with no names the Democrat would be favored by about 3 pts
Posted on 5/12/26 at 12:22 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Shouldn’t the Repbulicanrs being in control of Congress be a done deal with the redistricting count?
Yes, no doubt.
This is wishful thinking on the part of the press.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 12:32 pm to Covingtontiger77
because this is a generic who are you voting for (D/R) not a projects of seats being flipped.
The generic polls typically always lean Dem +4 or more. This is not focusing on tight race areas or anything in particular. Just calling and asking, if you voted today would you vote for democrat or republican.
The generic polls typically always lean Dem +4 or more. This is not focusing on tight race areas or anything in particular. Just calling and asking, if you voted today would you vote for democrat or republican.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 12:34 pm to Covingtontiger77
Before redistricting, Rs were supposed to lose the house by 20+. Now redistricting brings it back to a toss up
Posted on 5/12/26 at 1:06 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Shouldn’t the Repbulicanrs being in control of Congress be a done deal with the redistricting count?
No. 7-10 seats will not ever give either side a done deal in the House.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 1:40 pm to Covingtontiger77
It’s not possible. The fake pole is designed to demoralize you.
Don’t be demoralized. Have hope… nobody wants to go back to the 10% unemployment Obama gave us or… the runaway inflation Joe Dipshlt gave us.
Don’t be demoralized. Have hope… nobody wants to go back to the 10% unemployment Obama gave us or… the runaway inflation Joe Dipshlt gave us.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 1:43 pm to AubieinNC2009
quote:
Just calling and asking, if you voted today would you vote for democrat or republican.
It's almost like Republicans are out of the house for most of the day. Where could they be?
Posted on 5/12/26 at 1:44 pm to CR4090
quote:
Never discount the GOP's ability to frick up a wet dream.
Contestant 1: I'll take Donkeys and Elephants for $100 Alex.
Alex Trebec: "Never discount the GOP's ability to frick up a wet dream."
Contestant 1: What do Joe Biden and the GOP have in common?
Posted on 5/12/26 at 2:02 pm to Covingtontiger77
They are reporting the fake poll to get dems to the polls under the guise of a slim margin.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 2:07 pm to KingOrange
quote:
Polymarket says otherwise. Republicans + 7.
Polymarket has the DNC at an 80% chance to take the house right now.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 2:50 pm to Django Unchained
Atlas Intel
Atlas Intel’s latest survey shows the environment much more favorable for dems. Their polling has been ok in the US except the cross tabs are pretty unbelievable. We will see. Plenty of time before midterms.
Atlas Intel’s latest survey shows the environment much more favorable for dems. Their polling has been ok in the US except the cross tabs are pretty unbelievable. We will see. Plenty of time before midterms.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 2:55 pm to Covingtontiger77
Question: Why is Alabama giving away a district? Why 6+1, not 7-0?
Posted on 5/12/26 at 3:02 pm to CR4090
quote:
Why is Alabama giving away a district? Why 6+1, not 7-0?
Population distribution I would imagine. Better to have a single safe blue seat than multiple swing districts.
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