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re: China's economy really starting to falter...

Posted on 1/1/19 at 9:41 am to
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54755 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 9:41 am to
I think China is playing a different game than you imagine and this isn’t something that is going to be resolved in 8 +/- months of tariffs. Remember, there are no elections, the state controls the flow of information, and all corps, if not partly owned by the state are completely beholden. They’re built for the long game...I’m not sure we are...we’ll find out.
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
42511 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 9:44 am to
China's economy has some concerns, but falter is a strong word. I don't believe Xi is worried about the economy tanking. However, a major slowdown, while not catastrophic to China as a whole, may force Xi out of power.
As I see this, the big fears for the communist are:

1. Issues abroad. China is extended like at no point in its previous history. If foreign countries (especially in Africa) decide to take advantage of a weakened China by revamping trade deals, it could force China's hand as they relate to those nations. Would China step up and, potentially, intervene miltarily in those nations? Africa works by a totally different set of rules. TIA. On the other hand, wars can be an economic boom AND a much needed distraction politically.

2. Europe follows in the steps of Trump and plays hardball. Issues for the "New Silk Road" is not something China wants to deal with, especially if the otherside has deep pockets too. Europe, as dysfunctional as it currently is, is still a formidable economic adversary.

3. Unrest at home. The economy doesn't have to go totally in the shitter to cause civil unrest in China. If the growing, economically extended middle class decides to unite with the poor, then it will force a major reaction from the communist party.

I predict that China will come to the table. Trump, imho, has played this out about as well as can be expected. The only question is, will he allow China to save face while they simultaneously capitulate. Recent history indicates that will be the case (think North Korea). At any rate, here is to a prosperous and peaceful 2019.

Posted by TT1234
Member since Aug 2018
44 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 9:46 am to
So Mr. Trump will protect us from Chinese made televisions that spy on us??? I understand. (My TV is a LG--do you think it is helping someone spy on me?? Will a picture of me watching in my drawers show up on the inter webs?)

You also point out that under Trump they will buy more food from us than we will buy advanced goods from them ending the trade deficit. I understand.

Thanks to you for your best efforts in response. Clearly in the eyes of all who read this post you are unique in your knowledge of this situation.
This post was edited on 1/1/19 at 10:24 am
Posted by Longstreet
Member since Jul 2018
299 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 9:47 am to
If anything, China is scared shitless they won’t be able to continue to steal our technology.

10 years of this and we’ll have a generational gap in R&D which will establish us as the tech capital of the world for long into the future.

Damn Chinese.
This post was edited on 1/1/19 at 10:07 am
Posted by bamarep
Member since Nov 2013
52407 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 10:09 am to
quote:

So Mr. Trump will protect us from Chinese made televisions that spy on us??? I understand. (My TV is a LG--do you think it is helping someone spy on me?? Will a picture of me watching in my drawers show up on the inter webs?) You also point out that under Trump they will buy more food from us than we will buy advanced goods from them ending the trade deficit. I understand. Thanks for you for your best efforts in response. Clearly in the eyes of all who read this post you are unique in your knowledge of this situation.



I should be surprised that you missed the point but you clowns take everything so fricking literal.

Let me put it to you in dumbassaneese.

China needs our food more than we need their cheap trinkets. That simple enough for you?
Posted by TT1234
Member since Aug 2018
44 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 10:37 am to
Thanks for straightening me out with such a good quality, fact filled post.

I was mislead by this article. Food Accounts for only 6.7% of imports in China and 5.9% of Imports in the USA

You should contact them and tell them to quit their misinformation campaign and instead publish your posts.

I am sure a lot of people are going to be surprised to hear that the trade deficit between the US and China is going to disappear because Trump is going to sell them a bunch of food like you said.
This post was edited on 1/1/19 at 10:39 am
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
298305 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 10:41 am to
A terrible Chinese economy would have global ramifications and isn't something anyone needs.
Posted by TT1234
Member since Aug 2018
44 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 10:45 am to
Until I read this thread my impression from reading the media and various economic articles was that China's economic growth was slowing to something like 6%. Now I know because Trinidad and Bamarep have said it that China's economy is near collapse and if they don't get a deal with the President there will be widespread starvation there.

I wonder when the fake news will add those guys as sources??
Posted by LSUBadger
Member since Jan 2014
2238 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 11:06 am to
I travel to China regularly. The domestic economy is far, far larger than it was ten years ago. That makes them much less reliant on foreign trade. This wealth effect also is makes it harder and harder to keep prices down.

It’s actually good for them to have a downturn as it weeds out inefficient companies. One of our suppliers just closed their doors

There are a lot of factory layoffs going on right now to right size to current sales. Hard to believe that is not becoming an issue.
Posted by trinidadtiger
Member since Jun 2017
18948 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 5:09 pm to
TT you lost me on the LG TV comment, when a person does not understand basic geography its hard to comment on their economic philosophy.

That peninsula to the east of china, thats the Koreas, the southern part, thats South Korea.....the home of LG....
Posted by JohnnyU
Florida
Member since Nov 2006
12566 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

I think China is playing a different game than you imagine and this isn’t something that is going to be resolved in 8 +/- months of tariffs. Remember, there are no elections, the state controls the flow of information, and all corps, if not partly owned by the state are completely beholden. They’re built for the long game...I’m not sure we are...we’ll find out.



This. Plus it's not easy for Apple and others to shift their production to other countries.
However, Trump and his conspirators in Right wing media can convince his supporters of anything. Remember his Nobel Prize efforts in the denuclearization of North Korea? I haven't seen the announcement yet for his award ceremony.
Posted by beerJeep
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
37837 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 7:23 pm to
quote:

JohnnyU


Member when trump didn’t visit the troops?
Posted by ABearsFanNMS
Formerly of tLandmass now in Texas
Member since Oct 2014
19975 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

I have lived for the last three years in China and Cambodia trust me the Chinese economy is in excellent shape and thriving . $ 9.00 can buy you eight meals in China in the States a Burger , Fries , and a Coke . Meaning just an example of their economy trust me they are not hurting they sell all that cheap junk to Asian and African countries you cannot starve them out they love starvation .


Sweet Jesus, you may have a total of 1/2 a brain cell. Please don’t reproduce!
Posted by keakar
Member since Jan 2017
30152 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 7:27 pm to
I B China must be on suicide watch

he so desperately wants the US to surrender to china
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
74586 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 7:29 pm to
quote:

they love starvation .


Posted by ABearsFanNMS
Formerly of tLandmass now in Texas
Member since Oct 2014
19975 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 7:32 pm to
quote:

Member when trump didn’t visit the troops?


A classic that he will never live down!
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54755 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 10:05 pm to
Why wouldn’t China wait, say 2 years, to see what happens? Who faces more political pressures, is subject to more political change - US or China? I’m not saying the tariffs are ineffective or are an economic blunder, but hey aren’t going to be a quick fix.
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
42511 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 10:49 pm to
quote:

Why wouldn’t China wait, say 2 years, to see what happens? 


I would imagine that WAS the plan. As Mike Tyson said, "everyone has a plan until your punched in the mouth". I think China thought that they could use fear to influence policy change. When that didn't happen...they seemed to resort to joining us in playing "hardball". Now, shite is getting real. Their economy won't tank, but it seems far from robusts at this time. Domestically, I think China can manage this. However, China has expanded its influence (and responsibility) globally...especially in Africa and Central Asia. A weaker economy may mean issues abroad, and that they something they can't manage or afford it. I predict an agreement will be reached and it will be beneficial to the American people. How beneficial is obviously yet to be seen.
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
107412 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 11:01 pm to
quote:

I like to watch the "china uncensored" videos on youtube.


I prefer the “Japanese uncensored” videos myself.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54755 posts
Posted on 1/1/19 at 11:05 pm to
quote:

China thought that they could use fear


What are you referring to?


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