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Started By
Message
China Is Paying for Most of Trump's Trade War, Research Says
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:40 am
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:40 am
How much of the tariff will Chinese producers and U.S. consumers pay?
How is President Trump pulling his off?
LINK
quote:
President Donald Trump is succeeding in making China pay most of the cost of his trade war.
That’s the conclusion of a new paper from EconPol Europe, a network of researchers in the European Union. U.S. companies and consumers will only pay 4.5 percent more after the nation imposed 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and the other 20.5 percent toll will fall on Chinese producers, according to authors Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr.
How is President Trump pulling his off?
quote:
The Trump administration selected products with the highest “price elasticity,” or high availability of substitutes, according to Zoller-Rydzek and Felbermayr. The Chinese products hit by Trump’s tariffs can mostly be replaced by other goods, forcing exporters to cut selling prices to keep buyers.
“Through its strategic choice of Chinese products, the U.S. government was not only able to minimize the negative effects on U.S. consumers and firms, but also to create substantial net welfare gains in the U.S.,” the researchers wrote.
LINK
10
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:42 am to GumboPot
IB Freeman ain't gonna like this even a little bit.
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:43 am to GumboPot
Somebody’s not going to like this, not one bit. 
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:44 am to TbirdSpur2010
quote:
IB Freeman ain't gonna like this even a little bit.
He's not the only one that won't
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:48 am to Jjdoc
quote:
He's not the only one that won't
Him and everyone else that claims Obamacare is saving them money.
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:50 am to GumboPot
that estimate is mentioned nowhere in your link
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:52 am to Jjdoc
quote:
He's not the only one that won't
Yup and that person is gracing us with his presence today
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:53 am to TbirdSpur2010
quote:
IB Freeman ain't gonna like this even a little bit.
is he posting under JohnnyU now?
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:54 am to GumboPot
And on the flip side, China failed miserably to consider this by choosing soybeans as a tariff item.
China is a huge buyer of US soybeans and other countries produce those... BUT... not in the quantities China needed and those markets were more expensive than the US and raised their prices in response to the Chinese tariff on US soybeans.
China is a huge buyer of US soybeans and other countries produce those... BUT... not in the quantities China needed and those markets were more expensive than the US and raised their prices in response to the Chinese tariff on US soybeans.
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:55 am to GumboPot
Trump is helping the shite out of my business. Our competitors had to issue letters to all their distributors about price increases on their shitty Chinese product that puts them on par price-wise with our higher quality non China product. We are going to take a bigger chunk of the market than we expected directly because of Trump and these tariffs.
Already seeing the benefits because people know their prices will be going up so they are looking at alternatives now vs dealing with the headache.
Already seeing the benefits because people know their prices will be going up so they are looking at alternatives now vs dealing with the headache.
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:57 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
that estimate is mentioned nowhere in your link
That is weird. I clicked on my link in the OP and it took me to another Bloomberg China trade war article.
However I had the original article open in another browser tab and I screen shot and highlighted the estimate for you:
Here is the link again: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-26/trump-s-trade-war-comes-with-an-unexpected-bonus-more-trade
Just google this: "China Is Paying for Most of Trump's Trade War, Research Says" if you cannot get the the article.
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:59 am to GumboPot
quote:
How is President Trump pulling his off?
Posted on 12/27/18 at 9:00 am to The Maj
Posted on 12/27/18 at 9:00 am to ShoeBang
Hey Gumbo I found that link you didn't provide. LINK
Turns out this is a model estimate, and not in any way based on what has happened. That doesn't make it inherently wrong, but we should check on whether some of the other predictions it make pass the smell test.
Oh no! Turns out the exact opposite has happened!
Turns out this is a model estimate, and not in any way based on what has happened. That doesn't make it inherently wrong, but we should check on whether some of the other predictions it make pass the smell test.
quote:
This implies that the bilateral trade deficit between the US and China drops by 17%.
Oh no! Turns out the exact opposite has happened!
Posted on 12/27/18 at 9:05 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
Oh no! Turns out the exact opposite has happened!
Maybe because consumption is better than expected. That is everyone had increases in sales including China.
Posted on 12/27/18 at 9:05 am to GumboPot
I deal with a lot of international markets and when something like this happens you contact your local distributor in the US and say we cant take a 25% hit, Ill eat 10% if you eat the other 10% and let the consumer take 5%.
Sometimes the end retailer sees it as an excuse to take a price increase, and blame it on the tariff. In this case the msm jumps all over it and blames Trump.
Think about it logically, the US auto manufacturers are screaming about raw material cost increases, and foreign automakers are announcing new factories in the US????????
Sometimes the end retailer sees it as an excuse to take a price increase, and blame it on the tariff. In this case the msm jumps all over it and blames Trump.
Think about it logically, the US auto manufacturers are screaming about raw material cost increases, and foreign automakers are announcing new factories in the US????????
Posted on 12/27/18 at 9:12 am to GumboPot
keep guessing!
Posted on 12/27/18 at 10:52 am to GumboPot
Trump has done a fantastic job with the trade war.
I haven’t noticed an increase at all in anything for myself personally or the farm expenses. If there is any it’s pretty marginal
I haven’t noticed an increase at all in anything for myself personally or the farm expenses. If there is any it’s pretty marginal
Posted on 12/27/18 at 10:55 am to deltaland
quote:
Trump has done a fantastic job with the trade war.
I haven’t noticed an increase at all in anything for myself personally or the farm expenses. If there is any it’s pretty marginal
But it could be cheaper if we didn't have a trade war.
Signed, NeverTrumpers
Posted on 12/27/18 at 11:00 am to GumboPot
It’s always been directed at China. Always.
There is a ways to go yet however.
Fwiw Trading China has been easy money for two years now. VIX as well. Until it isn’t, then we stop.
There is a ways to go yet however.
Fwiw Trading China has been easy money for two years now. VIX as well. Until it isn’t, then we stop.
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