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re: By Close Today 60M Will Have Voted, 49% Of Them Democrat, 27% Of Them Republican
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:45 am to sostan
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:45 am to sostan
quote:
As compared to what? As usual, no context.
What would you like the info compared to?
What context is missing for you?
I can only relay what was said.
0
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:45 am to LuckyTiger
How many of those registered democrats are blacks/Hispanics that voted for Trump?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:45 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
How do you arrive at this estimate?
The walk away is around 31% from the new normal Dem party
Just adding that to the massive orange energy train
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:48 am to LuckyTiger
quote:OP said that 27% are republican, assuming worst case that every single other vote was democrat, leaves 73%.
How are you arriving at that number?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:48 am to angryslugs
quote:
How many of those registered democrats are blacks/Hispanics that voted for Trump?
No idea, but that will be a key component of this election outcome. Will Trump sway some of the black vote that is a standard monolith for Democrats? If so, how much? Enough to be a deciding factor?
And Hispanics, especially in places like AZ, NV, FL, GA, how much?
We shall see.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:49 am to SlapahoeTribe
quote:
OP said that 27% are republican, assuming worst case that every single other vote was democrat, leaves 73%.
49% are D
27% are R
24% are I
Okay, so you are employing a worst case scenario numbers.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 7:51 am
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:51 am to LuckyTiger
quote:How many are from California, New York and Illinois?
49% Of Them Democrat
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:53 am to LuckyTiger
what were the percentages in 2016 for early voting?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:53 am to LuckyTiger
These type of reports are as worthless as polls showing Biden leading by +8 in national polls. Without a state by state breakdown, this number is a unicorn fart.
- Democrats always lead early voting (see souls to the polls efforts)
- Democrat early voting lead is offset by Republicans turning out in larger numbers on election day.
- Only way Democrats typically win national elections in swing states is if Republicans are not motivated (and that ain't the case this cycle).
- 49% to 27% number is garbage, as most of that 49% could be between early voting in New York, Illinois, and California. These numbers mean as much as the Republicans having a huge lead in Mississippi, West Virginia, or Oklahoma. Each party will win those states regardless of how many votes are cast.
- PA, WI, MI, NC, FL are the only states that matter this election. Everything else is white noise.
- Democrats always lead early voting (see souls to the polls efforts)
- Democrat early voting lead is offset by Republicans turning out in larger numbers on election day.
- Only way Democrats typically win national elections in swing states is if Republicans are not motivated (and that ain't the case this cycle).
- 49% to 27% number is garbage, as most of that 49% could be between early voting in New York, Illinois, and California. These numbers mean as much as the Republicans having a huge lead in Mississippi, West Virginia, or Oklahoma. Each party will win those states regardless of how many votes are cast.
- PA, WI, MI, NC, FL are the only states that matter this election. Everything else is white noise.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:58 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
Also said we are on pace for highest turnout since 1908 when 65.4% voted and we could surpass that number which would make for highest turnout since 1900 at 74%.
This seems almost irresponsible.
Don’t we expect election day voting to be down due to increased mail in?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:59 am to Honkus
quote:
Yea but have you had lib-dinners lately?
Not since that last one but I am having lunch this week with an older defense attorney.
Huge Democrat. Told me three years ago that Trump would resign and Don Jr would be in prison before end of first term.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:59 am to LuckyTiger
Gallup latest national splits are 27/28/45 ish.
This signals what we already knew. Dems are scared shitless of covid and are simply voting early.
This signals what we already knew. Dems are scared shitless of covid and are simply voting early.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 8:02 am to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Don’t we expect election day voting to be down due to increased mail in?
Fair possibility.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 8:04 am to LuckyTiger
That's less than the democrats were supposed to turnout early.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 8:07 am to LuckyTiger
51% not democrat
Posted on 10/26/20 at 8:08 am to doya2
Would be really interesting to know that Independent split.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 8:08 am to TejasHorn
quote:
Great that more dead people than ever are engaging in our democracy! Amirite guys?
Fifty
Posted on 10/26/20 at 8:08 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
By Close Today 60M Will Have Voted, 49% Of Them Democrat, 27% Of Them Republican
Irrelevant without a breakdown of what states the voters are in.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 8:11 am to Old Sarge
“ Lots of older registers Democrats are voting Trump.”
This. I finally convinced my 80-year-old Daddy to switch from Democrat to Republican after the shampeachment. That was his final straw with remaining a Dem in name only. He hasn’t voted for a Dem presidential candidate since maybe 1976 (I’ll have to ask him about that one, not entirely sure). I switched myself after the Al Gore fiasco of 2000.
This. I finally convinced my 80-year-old Daddy to switch from Democrat to Republican after the shampeachment. That was his final straw with remaining a Dem in name only. He hasn’t voted for a Dem presidential candidate since maybe 1976 (I’ll have to ask him about that one, not entirely sure). I switched myself after the Al Gore fiasco of 2000.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 8:14 am to LuckyTiger
quote:
Also said we are on pace for highest turnout since 1908 when 65.4% voted and we could surpass that number which would make for highest turnout since 1900 at 74%.
1) Good, glad so many are voting this early. It will be even harder for the cheaters to "find" new mail in ballots on election night or right after.
2) Keep those turn-out numbers in mind when with Trump leading all night on election night mail in votes keep coming in for days afterwards and all of the sudden we have an election with 80%+ turn-out and a miraculous come from way behind win for Sleepy Joe.
Early voting doesn't mean anything as long as they vote once.
I still think election night is going to be magical as we celebrate 4 more years of MAGA.
~30 million democrats have voted so far, good. It is a safe bet most of them are sky screamers who think somehow voting early will get Trump out.
The 27% Rs are most likely Trump locks (he has a 92%+ approval in the party) so that is ~16MM Trump votes.
The Independents with 14.4MM votes could be interesting. My bet is they are breaking for the Trump train, though time will tell.
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