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re: Breaking: Fed leaving interest rates unchanged.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:41 pm to Bass Tiger
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:41 pm to Bass Tiger
Cool story from 36 years ago.
0
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:47 pm to ronricks
quote:
I can remember you posting this more than once.
Yeah, and in that thread you said we would continue to have historically low inventory. Today we have the largest gap in inventory vs buyers we have ever had.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:52 pm to stout
quote:
Today we have the largest gap in inventory vs buyers we have ever had.
We still have low inventory. Adding on the buyers qualification doesn't change that.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:55 pm to ronricks
quote:
Adding on the buyers qualification doesn't change that.
Come on, man.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:57 pm to Slippy
quote:
When you find something you like that you can afford, just buy it.
I added one other factor. If your neighborhood is full of wonderful republicans but the line of democrats is getting closer, sell now and move. That's why so many of us moved from Shreveport to Bossier 30 years ago. And the trend is still going strong.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:59 pm to thejudge
quote:
Should have moved back when I had a quote for 2.375.
It’s pretty tough to leave a 2.375. That’s where I am as well
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:00 pm to stout
quote:
Cool
That is one of many factors affecting affordability now vs 36 years ago
Low interest rates can also impact affordability. Keeping interest rates too low for the last 36 years is one of the factors that have driven home prices to high levels. In the early 90's we had a mild recession and the Fed cut interest rates and kept them low for a good long while. So, we had a stock market bubble which was followed by a stock market crash, which led to more very low interest rates. Then we had a housing bubble and a housing crash, followed by very low interest rates and debt monetization. Then another housing and stock bubble, followed by a very brief crash and more debt monetization, which was of course followed by more inflation.
Any attempt to keep wages apace with inflation will trigger wage price spirals and make the inflationary monetary cycles worse. In other words, you can't fix affordability problems by lowering interest rates. Eventually, the cycle of boom bust has to end by clearing bad debt, and all that entails. Otherwise, inflation becomes uncontrollable.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:02 pm to stout
quote:
Come on, man.
Let me give you a real work example to help you understand this. This is my neighborhood - there are 51 total properties on the market. A healthy number and what it always was from 2012ish to 2020 (pre Covid insanity) was 115-125ish revolving properties on the market at one time. Inventory is still very low regardless of what 'buyer' qualifier you want to try and add on there. Has average days on market gone up? Absolutely. But, the inventory is still low. List to sale is still about 3%ish so prices are also stable. For most the SFH you see listed buyers are still paying over asking price.
LINK
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:05 pm to Bass Tiger
OK boomer literally
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:13 pm to ronricks
quote:
so prices are also stable
Very market-specific.
I was actually looking into this since SlidellCajun's post caught my eye in that old thread, so I was curious and asked ChatGPT to compare a purchase then vs the market now.
Someone buying a $400K house in Slidell in 11/2023 would possibly have negative equity (not counting any progress made towards the principal) and would be looking at a 39-month break-even point to refinance to today's rate.
Also, any current low inventory is a result of sellers being trapped due to no equity, low finance rates, and no buyers. Many areas are seeing a record number of sellers pull their listings due to no activity, so the potential inventory is higher than you think if the market were to turn.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:28 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
At some point I would think housing prices would decline, I mean adding 20 million illegals to the housing market caused much of the rise, as they leave shouldnt it have the reverse effect?
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:41 pm to Lsu101205
quote:
Homes were also around 120k back then, not the hyper inflated 400k starter homes you'll find in most metro areas.
That's Stout's point, that strong inflation was fueled by over a decade of sub-5% 30yr mortgages. That helped facilitate the re-growth of flippers, which spurred price growth. Then we had the quick spike in rates at the end of COVID and those two together locked many buyers in due to new prices plus higher rates meant just lateral moves (similar size, similar location) were likely to mean a higher mortgage.
It's going to take a good while for that to balance out, depending on local economy.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:42 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
If you can’t afford a home at 6 percent then you need to find a smaller home, re-evaluate all the shite you buy when you’re laying in bed or on the shitter. Trade-in the brand new 120k f250 and get something cheaper.
Or go find a better paying job.
6-7 percent on a home is about where it should be.
Or go find a better paying job.
6-7 percent on a home is about where it should be.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:48 pm to Lsu101205
quote:
Homes were also around 120k back then
And salaries were lower. In fact, wages have increased more than inflation.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:51 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Lol @ LSURussian wrong again and has to self ban
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:54 pm to PorkSammich
quote:
He also loved calling Jerome Powell “too late” when the new guy is doing the exact same things.
Powell was just some person to redirect anger at because the president of deals and low prices is doing neither.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:59 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
TDS Journalists in the Q&A were about to lose their minds over Warsh not hiking rates. I think he fielded 5-6 questions in a row which were all iterations of "I-I-I, well, I guess I just don't understand. Why aren't you raising rates?"
Posted on 7/29/26 at 3:02 pm to Diego Ricardo
quote:
Powell was just some person to redirect anger at because the president of deals and low prices is doing neither.
Correct. Its everyone's fault but Trump according to SDVCuck.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 3:05 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
As they should, current inflation is energy driven not policy driven and quite frankly the Fed created sustained inflation regardless yet they punish ordinary Americans for their policies
Posted on 7/29/26 at 3:06 pm to Penrod
quote:
wages have increased more than inflation.
That's great if someone wants a new TV. Not so much if they want a house.
Wages have not kept up with housing inflation.
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